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Cultural Leonesa v Pontevedra

Cultural Leonesa

1–2Full time

Pontevedra

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Cultural Leonesa 1–2 Pontevedra CULTURAL LEONESA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cultural Leonesa win~~43%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.932

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cultural Leonesa win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cultural Leonesa 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
1′KICK-OFF Cultural Leonesa v Pontevedra
12′We said Cultural Leonesa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–9
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Pontevedra
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Cultural Leonesa win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
13′G. Ortega scores for Cultural Leonesa on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
25′We said Cultural Leonesa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′SECOND HALF Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Pontevedra
48′HALF-TIME Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Pontevedra
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pontevedra · On: A. Argos · Off: D. Mba
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pontevedra · On: P. Gaye · Off: L. Macias
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pontevedra · On: I. Elejalde · Off: A. Gil
54′We said Cultural Leonesa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
56′We said Cultural Leonesa at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–52–20
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Pontevedra
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Cultural Leonesa win: 43% at kick-off, 28% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Cultural Leonesa win 80%)
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' D. Queipo · Cultural Leonesa
58′56′: Y. Pino on the scoresheet for Pontevedra, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–53–19
59′We said Cultural Leonesa at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–22–73
59′Pontevedra ahead on 59′ through I. Elejalde. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–22–73
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Cultural Leonesa 1–2 Pontevedra
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Cultural Leonesa win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Pontevedra win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 53%)
61′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–21–74
63′We said Cultural Leonesa at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Escobar · Off: A. Jaso Zunzarren
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Cultural Leonesa win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' A. Argos · Pontevedra
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' R. Dominguez · Pontevedra
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Pontevedra · On: I. Ivorra · Off: J. Ramos
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Cardero · Off: G. Ortega
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cultural Leonesa · On: I. Lopez · Off: D. Queipo
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Pontevedra · On: I. Charid · Off: Y. Pino
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Cultural Leonesa · On: H. Aller · Off: S. Maestre
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Bicho · Cultural Leonesa
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' A. Escobar · Cultural Leonesa
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' H. Aller · Cultural Leonesa
96′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 1–98–1
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Cultural Leonesa 2–2 Pontevedra
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Pontevedra win 99%)
97′R. Pier scores for Cultural Leonesa on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–98–1
100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+9' A. Perez · Pontevedra
100′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+10' Cultural Leonesa
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' Pontevedra win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 98%)
101′🟨 YELLOW · 90+11' R. Pier · Cultural Leonesa
104′It ends 1–2 after extra time; the record grades our 43% on Cultural Leonesa on the ninety-minute score. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Cultural Leonesa 1–2 Pontevedra
FTCultural Leonesa 1–2 Pontevedra · Cultural Leonesa win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cultural Leonesa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cultural Leonesa 43%, draw 30%, Pontevedra 27%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Cultural Leonesa v PontevedraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cultural Leonesa win43%

Draw30%

Pontevedra win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

RefereeA. Mogio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cultural Leonesa

Pontevedra

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cultural Leonesa	8	+2	12
13	Pontevedra	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cultural leonesa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make Cultural Leonesa a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cultural Leonesa v Pontevedra~~1.24 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~9 v 13

~~The market · Cultural Leonesa win~~50% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cultural Leonesa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cultural Leonesa win	43%	50%	−7
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Pontevedra win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Cultural Leonesa or draw	73%	78%	−5
Cultural Leonesa clean sheet	40%	–	–
Pontevedra clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 12.2 10.2 4.9 1 13.9 13.4 6.0 2 8.8 8.0 3.7 3 3.7 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cultural Leonesa down, Pontevedra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,962 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cultural Leonesa at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pontevedra away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Cultural Leonesa, 0.92 for Pontevedra. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PON 1–0 CUL · CUL 2–0 PON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

CULTURAL LEONESA

LWDLWD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

PONTEVEDRA

LDDLLW1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	9	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	8	+6	17
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
4	Extremadura 1924	9	+6	13
5	Real Unión	9	+5	13
6	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
7	Athletic Club II	8	+3	12
8	Zamora	8	+2	12
9	Cultural Leonesa	8	+2	12
10	Cacereño	8	+2	12
11	Ponferradina	8	0	12
12	Real Avilés	8	+4	11
13	Pontevedra	8	0	11
14	Mirandes	8	0	11
15	Barakaldo	8	−2	9
16	CD Coria	8	−4	8
17	Deportivo La Coruña II	9	−8	8
18	Unionistas de Salamanca	8	−4	7
19	UD Ourense	8	−10	5
20	Arenas Getxo	8	−17	2