Cultural Leonesa v Arenas Getxo prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:01

Cultural Leonesa 4–1 Arenas Getxo CULTURAL LEONESA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cultural Leonesa win~~54%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.198

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cultural Leonesa win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cultural Leonesa 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Cultural Leonesa v Arenas Getxo
8′Little has changed for our model: Cultural Leonesa 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' B. Arratibel · Arenas Getxo
39′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Arenas Getxo · On: E. Palacin · Off: B. Arratibel
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Cultural Leonesa win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Zubelzu · Arenas Getxo
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Arenas Getxo
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Arenas Getxo · A. P. Benito P.
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cultural Leonesa 2–0 Arenas Getxo · H. Oleaga
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cultural Leonesa 2–0 Arenas Getxo · J. Delgado
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arenas Getxo · On: E. Redondo · Off: A. Arnedo
51′⚽ GOAL · 53' Cultural Leonesa 2–0 Arenas Getxo · J. Delgado
51′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Arenas Getxo · On: J. Sanchez · Off: I. Telletxea
65′SECOND HALF Cultural Leonesa 3–0 Arenas Getxo
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Cultural Leonesa 3–0 Arenas Getxo · J. Delgado
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cultural Leonesa · On: S. Maestre · Off: A. Algobia
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cultural Leonesa · On: H. Garcia · Off: A. P. Benito P.
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Cardero · Off: J. Delgado
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Ndiaye · Off: Bicho
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cultural Leonesa · On: M. Fernandez · Off: A. Escobar
83′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Arenas Getxo · On: A. Sanz · Off: A. Lekuna
85′⚽ GOAL · 87' Cultural Leonesa 3–0 Arenas Getxo · C. Pomares
87′🟨 YELLOW · 89' A. Ndiaye · Cultural Leonesa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' R. Pier · Cultural Leonesa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' C. Pomares · Cultural Leonesa
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Cultural Leonesa 3–0 Arenas Getxo · H. Garcia
FTFULL TIME Cultural Leonesa 4–1 Arenas Getxo
FTCultural Leonesa 4–1 Arenas Getxo · Cultural Leonesa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

Cultural Leonesa win54%

Draw26%

Arenas Getxo win21%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:00

Line-ups

Cultural Leonesa

Arenas Getxo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cultural Leonesa

Arenas Getxo

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cultural Leonesa

Formation not confirmed

13 M. San Roman

2 G. Ortega

5 R. Pier

3 J. Vazquez

17 C. Pomares

22 D. Queipo

14 Bicho

23 A. Algobia

7 A. P. Benito P.

9 J. Delgado

19 A. Escobar

Coach · Castro Jandro

Substitutes

1 · P. M. Parera

24 · B. Tiru

15 · A. Jaso Zunzarren

20 · I. Lopez

16 · O. Lopez

6 · S. Maestre

8 · A. Ndiaye

10 · A. Cardero

31 · M. Fernandez

11 · H. Garcia

33 · H. Aller

Arenas Getxo

Formation not confirmed

13 H. Oleaga

5 J. Zubelzu

22 A. Dufur

15 B. Arratibel

3 A. Lekuna

24 A. Arnedo

16 G. Akogo

20 E. Zabaleta

21 I. Telletxea

23 A. Oyon

9 J. Cortes

Coach · Jon Erice

Substitutes

1 · Obon

2 · J. Larrauri

18 · R. Torres Manzanares

8 · I. Badiola

11 · J. Sanchez

17 · U. Bujan

14 · E. Redondo

12 · E. Palacin

26 · A. Sanz

Our number · cultural leonesa winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

54% The market64%

Us54%

~~Market~~64%

We make Cultural Leonesa a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cultural leonesa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cultural Leonesa win	54%	64%	−10
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Arenas Getxo win	21%	14%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Cultural Leonesa or draw	79%	86%	−6
Cultural Leonesa clean sheet	41%	–	–
Arenas Getxo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.6 6.9 3.3 1 12.7 12.0 5.2 2 10.5 9.3 4.2 3 5.7 5.1 2.3 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cultural Leonesa down, Arenas Getxo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,949 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cultural Leonesa at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arenas Getxo away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Cultural Leonesa, 0.90 for Arenas Getxo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

CULTURAL LEONESA

DWLWDL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

ARENAS GETXO

DLLLLD1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Athletic Club II	7	+4	12
5	Cacereño	7	+3	12
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Ponferradina	7	0	11
9	Real Unión	7	+2	9
10	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
11	Mérida AD	7	−1	9
12	Real Avilés	7	+1	8
13	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
14	Pontevedra	7	−1	8
15	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
17	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2