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CD Coria v Extremadura 1924

CD Coria

2–4Full time

Extremadura 1924

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio La Isla

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

CD Coria 2–4 Extremadura 1924 CD CORIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Coria win~~42%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.753

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.682

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 60 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Coria win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: CD Coria was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
9′Much as we predicted: CD Coria was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
22′D. Espejo scores for CD Coria on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
30′D. Espejo scores for CD Coria on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
47′⚽ GOAL · 16' CD Coria 2–0 Extremadura 1924 · D. Espejo
47′🟨 YELLOW · 28' P. Palacin · CD Coria
47′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Y. Ballesteros · Extremadura 1924
47′🟨 YELLOW · 38' I. Bekhoucha · Extremadura 1924
47′⚽ GOAL · 40' CD Coria 2–0 Extremadura 1924 · B. Nunez (assist M. Leiton)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Guzman · CD Coria
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Extremadura 1924 · On: I. Burgos · Off: J. Villar
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · I. Burgos
50′⚽ GOAL · 16' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · D. Espejo
50′🟨 YELLOW · 28' P. Palacin · CD Coria
50′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Y. Ballesteros · Extremadura 1924
50′🟨 YELLOW · 38' I. Bekhoucha · Extremadura 1924
50′⚽ GOAL · 40' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · B. Nunez (assist M. Leiton)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Guzman · CD Coria
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Extremadura 1924 · On: I. Burgos · Off: J. Villar
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · I. Burgos
51′⚽ GOAL · 16' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · D. Espejo
51′🟨 YELLOW · 28' P. Palacin · CD Coria
51′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Y. Ballesteros · Extremadura 1924
51′🟨 YELLOW · 38' I. Bekhoucha · Extremadura 1924
51′⚽ GOAL · 40' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · B. Nunez (assist M. Leiton)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Guzman · CD Coria
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Extremadura 1924 · On: I. Burgos · Off: J. Villar
51′⚽ GOAL · 49' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · I. Burgos (assist Y. Ballesteros)
55′⚽ GOAL · 16' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · D. Espejo
55′🟨 YELLOW · 28' P. Palacin · CD Coria
55′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Y. Ballesteros · Extremadura 1924
55′🟨 YELLOW · 38' I. Bekhoucha · Extremadura 1924
55′⚽ GOAL · 40' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · B. Nunez (assist M. Leiton)
55′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Guzman · CD Coria
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Extremadura 1924 · On: I. Burgos · Off: J. Villar
55′⚽ GOAL · 49' CD Coria 2–1 Extremadura 1924 · I. Burgos (assist Y. Ballesteros)
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' CD Coria 2–2 Extremadura 1924 · Kike
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' E. Llorente · CD Coria
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' CD Coria · On: I. Ramos · Off: M. Leiton
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' CD Coria · On: D. Morcillo · Off: P. Palacin
68′⚽ GOAL · 16' CD Coria 2–2 Extremadura 1924 · D. Espejo
68′🟨 YELLOW · 28' P. Palacin · CD Coria
68′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Y. Ballesteros · Extremadura 1924
68′🟨 YELLOW · 38' I. Bekhoucha · Extremadura 1924
68′⚽ GOAL · 40' CD Coria 2–2 Extremadura 1924 · B. Nunez (assist M. Leiton)
68′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Guzman · CD Coria
68′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Extremadura 1924 · On: I. Burgos · Off: J. Villar
68′⚽ GOAL · 49' CD Coria 2–2 Extremadura 1924 · I. Burgos (assist Y. Ballesteros)
68′⚽ GOAL · 55' CD Coria 2–2 Extremadura 1924 · Kike (assist Y. Ballesteros)
68′🟨 YELLOW · 59' E. Llorente · CD Coria
68′SUBSTITUTION · 60' CD Coria · On: I. Ramos · Off: M. Leiton
68′SUBSTITUTION · 60' CD Coria · On: D. Morcillo · Off: P. Palacin
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Extremadura 1924 · On: G. Zarfino · Off: M. Nordin
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' CD Coria 2–3 Extremadura 1924 · Kike
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' CD Coria · On: A. Lopez-Vadillo · Off: B. Nunez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' CD Coria · On: J. Tapia · Off: S. Gomez
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' CD Coria 2–4 Extremadura 1924 · D. Espejo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Extremadura 1924 · On: L. Lecic · Off: Rodri
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' CD Coria · On: J. Curras · Off: J. Gallastegi
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Extremadura 1924 · On: Imanol Barce · Off: M. Gonzalez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Extremadura 1924 · On: A. Gothler · Off: Kike
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Imanol Barce · Extremadura 1924
90′PENALTY MISSED · 99' I. Ramos · CD Coria
FTFULL TIME CD Coria 2–4 Extremadura 1924
FTCD Coria 2–4 Extremadura 1924 · CD Coria win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CD Coria win42%

Draw28%

Extremadura 1924 win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio La Isla

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

CD Coria

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Alonso

17 A. Blanco

5 Trapero

23 A. Dominguez

3 J. Guzman

22 B. Nunez

8 E. Llorente

10 S. Gomez

21 M. Leiton

9 P. Palacin

18 J. Gallastegi

Coach · Rosa Rai

Substitutes

13 · J. Garrido

25 · N. Lopez

20 · I. Leon

2 · J. Curras

4 · J. Calleja

16 · A. Santiago

14 · A. Moreno

6 · J. Tapia

15 · R. Nunez

7 · I. Ramos

24 · D. Morcillo

11 · A. Lopez-Vadillo

Extremadura 1924

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Robador

2 I. Bekhoucha

14 D. Espejo

5 S. Molina

21 A. Macias

17 J. Villar

11 M. Gonzalez

6 Y. Ballesteros

12 M. Nordin

10 Kike

9 Rodri

Coach · David Rocha

Substitutes

13 · A. Liceras

3 · C. Cordero

18 · E. Sanchez

8 · G. Zarfino

7 · Imanol Barce

16 · L. Lecic

19 · A. Gothler

20 · I. Burgos

22 · H. Areosa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CD Coria

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Alonso

17 A. Blanco

5 Trapero

23 A. Dominguez

3 J. Guzman

22 B. Nunez

8 E. Llorente

10 S. Gomez

21 M. Leiton

9 P. Palacin

18 J. Gallastegi

Coach · Rosa Rai

Substitutes

13 · J. Garrido

25 · N. Lopez

20 · I. Leon

2 · J. Curras

4 · J. Calleja

16 · A. Santiago

14 · A. Moreno

6 · J. Tapia

15 · R. Nunez

7 · I. Ramos

24 · D. Morcillo

11 · A. Lopez-Vadillo

Extremadura 1924

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Robador

2 I. Bekhoucha

14 D. Espejo

5 S. Molina

21 A. Macias

17 J. Villar

11 M. Gonzalez

6 Y. Ballesteros

12 M. Nordin

10 Kike

9 Rodri

Coach · David Rocha

Substitutes

13 · A. Liceras

3 · C. Cordero

18 · E. Sanchez

8 · G. Zarfino

7 · Imanol Barce

16 · L. Lecic

19 · A. Gothler

20 · I. Burgos

22 · H. Areosa

Our number · cd coria winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

42% The market38%

Us42%

~~Market~~38%

We make CD Coria a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cd coria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Coria win	42%	38%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Extremadura 1924 win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−6
CD Coria or draw	70%	67%	+3
CD Coria clean sheet	35%	–	–
Extremadura 1924 clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.6 9.3 5.2 1 11.6 13.0 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.4 4.5 3 3.6 3.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Coria down, Extremadura 1924 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,941 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

CD Coria at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Extremadura 1924 away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for CD Coria, 1.07 for Extremadura 1924. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

CD CORIA

LWLDDL1–4 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

EXTREMADURA 1924

LWLLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
4	Cacereño	6	+3	11
5	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
6	Mirandes	6	+2	10
7	Zamora	6	+2	10
8	Racing Ferrol	6	+2	10
9	Real Unión	6	+2	8
10	Deportivo La Coruña II	6	+1	8
11	Pontevedra	6	0	8
12	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
13	Extremadura 1924	6	−1	6
14	Mérida AD	6	−2	6
15	Unionistas de Salamanca	6	−3	6
16	Barakaldo	6	−3	6
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5
18	CD Coria	6	−3	5
19	UD Ourense	6	−8	2
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2