Barakaldo v Mirandes prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Barakaldo 2–0 Mirandes BARAKALDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barakaldo win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.460

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.554

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barakaldo win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barakaldo 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Barakaldo v Mirandes
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Barakaldo 1–0 Mirandes
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Barakaldo win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
8′We said Barakaldo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
9′A. Pena scores for Barakaldo on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–10
28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Mirandes
29′Mirandes are down to ten from 29′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 74–18–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–7
32′We said Barakaldo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Barakaldo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' X. Fernandez · Barakaldo
36′🟨 YELLOW · 32' J. Dorrio · Mirandes
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' P. Perez · Mirandes
37′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Mirandes · On: P. Rodriguez · Off: N. Espinosa
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' A. Troncho · Barakaldo
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' B. Gomez · Barakaldo
45′SECOND HALF Barakaldo 1–0 Mirandes
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Barakaldo · On: O. Marotias · Off: B. Gomez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Barakaldo · On: J. Huidobro · Off: X. Fernandez
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mirandes · On: A. Uzkudun · Off: J. Dorrio
51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+7' A. Muguruza · Barakaldo
53′HALF-TIME Barakaldo 1–0 Mirandes
56′We said Barakaldo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Barakaldo 2–0 Mirandes
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Barakaldo win: 45% at kick-off, 96% now
57′57′: A. Troncho on the scoresheet for Barakaldo, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mirandes · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: Riki
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Barakaldo · On: J. Cabo · Off: E. Mateos
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' J. Gonzalez · Mirandes
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mirandes · On: I. Pedernales · Off: M. Aguirregabiria
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mirandes · On: A. Rodrigo Tapia · Off: P. Perez
81′We said Barakaldo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' P. Trigueros · Barakaldo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Barakaldo · On: M. Ruiz · Off: A. Pena
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Barakaldo · On: Okolo · Off: C. Mattheus
93′2–0 at the end. Our 45% on Barakaldo comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Barakaldo 2–0 Mirandes
FTBarakaldo 2–0 Mirandes · Barakaldo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barakaldo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barakaldo 45%, draw 28%, Mirandes 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Barakaldo v MirandesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barakaldo win45%

Draw28%

Mirandes win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

VenueCampo de Lasesarre

Line-ups

Barakaldo

Mirandes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barakaldo

Mirandes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
17	Barakaldo	7	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barakaldo

Formation not confirmed

13 G. Campos

5 A. Muguruza

17 P. Trigueros

18 B. Gomez

3 A. Zoilo

15 I. Jimenez

10 A. Pena

19 A. Troncho

21 X. Fernandez

27 E. Mateos

11 C. Mattheus

Coach · Imanol de la Sota Aberasturi

Substitutes

1 · I. Ispizua

22 · S. Calera

4 · O. Marotias

28 · A. Uruena

8 · J. Huidobro

14 · U. Collado

26 · M. Ruiz

7 · J. Cabo

20 · Okolo

9 · X. Sola

Mirandes

Formation not confirmed

13 E. Badia

22 M. Aguirregabiria

24 J. Fernandez

21 A. Arambarri

17 P. Perez

16 M. Lozano

8 R. Martinez

23 J. Dorrio

19 Riki

10 N. Espinosa

9 I. Unzueta

Coach · Antxon Muneta

Substitutes

1 · J. Ruiz

5 · P. Rodriguez

4 · C. Navarro

3 · H. Arrillaga

15 · I. Pedernales

7 · D. de la Iglesia

14 · M. Auria

6 · A. Verde

12 · J. Gonzalez

20 · A. Rodrigo Tapia

11 · A. Uzkudun

18 · Rodri

Our number · barakaldo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make Barakaldo a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barakaldo v Mirandes~~1.39 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~17 v 6

~~The market · Barakaldo win~~39% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barakaldo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barakaldo win	45%	39%	+6
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Mirandes win	28%	31%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−2
Barakaldo or draw	72%	69%	+3
Barakaldo clean sheet	36%	–	–
Mirandes clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.6 8.8 4.8 1 12.0 13.0 6.5 2.2 2 8.5 8.6 4.4 3 4.0 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barakaldo down, Mirandes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,951 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Barakaldo at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mirandes away: 1.50 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Barakaldo, 1.03 for Mirandes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BARAKALDO

LWLDDL1–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

MIRANDES

WWDWLD2–0 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	7	+8	19
2	UD Logroñés	7	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Athletic Club II	7	+4	12
5	Cacereño	7	+3	12
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Cultural Leonesa	7	+2	11
9	Ponferradina	7	0	11
10	Real Unión	7	+2	9
11	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
12	Mérida AD	7	−1	9
13	Real Avilés	7	+1	8
14	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
15	Pontevedra	7	−1	8
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
17	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	7	−13	2