Athletic Club II v Real Unión prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Athletic Club II 0–0 Real Unión ATHLETIC CLUB II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Athletic Club II win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.870

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Athletic Club II win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Athletic Club II v Real Unión
2′Much as we predicted: Athletic Club II was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
3′Much as we predicted: Athletic Club II was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
45′HALF-TIME Athletic Club II 0–0 Real Unión
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Athletic Club II · On: B. Larrea · Off: T. Zarandona
46′SECOND HALF Athletic Club II 0–0 Real Unión
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' J. Fontan · Real Unión
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' B. Gaubeka · Real Unión
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' E. Azkune · Real Unión
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' C. Imga · Athletic Club II
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Athletic Club II · On: E. Lete · Off: S. Sanchez
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Athletic Club II · On: P. Huestamendia · Off: A. Conde
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Unión · On: M. Hussaini Muhammad · Off: E. Azkune
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Athletic Club II · On: T. Vizcay · Off: A. Pecina
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Real Unión · On: M. Mancisidor · Off: B. Gaubeka
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Real Unión · On: U. Albizua · Off: U. Garcia
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Athletic Club II · On: B. Garcia · Off: A. Perez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Real Unión · On: P. Alvarez · Off: G. Martinez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Real Unión · On: A. Sanchez · Off: A. Martin
FTFULL TIME Athletic Club II 0–0 Real Unión
FTAthletic Club II 0–0 Real Unión · Athletic Club II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Athletic Club II win48%

Draw25%

Real Unión win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueLezama Facilities

Line-ups

Athletic Club II

Real Unión

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Athletic Club II

Real Unión

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
10	Real Unión	6	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Athletic Club II

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Santos

2 D. Perez

27 T. Zarandona

5 I. Monreal

28 I. El Arbaoui

23 J. Sola

8 A. Perez

11 A. Conde

16 S. Sanchez

22 C. Imga

17 A. Pecina

Coach · Llopis Bittor

Substitutes

1 · S. Garcia

15 · B. Larrea

18 · D. Belategi

4 · A. Izagirre Cestona

21 · B. Garcia

32 · E. Ellakuria

19 · I. Oyono

7 · P. Huestamendia

20 · T. Vizcay

6 · E. Lete

Real Unión

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Tena

2 J. Fontan

5 G. Martinez

4 J. Pola

3 A. Mateo

20 A. Martin

6 B. Gaubeka

23 L. Sangalli

7 U. Garcia

11 A. Galarza

19 E. Azkune

Coach · Ramses Gil

Substitutes

13 · L. Emery

8 · P. Alvarez

21 · U. Albizua

22 · J. de la Mata

10 · M. Arruti

32 · A. Sanchez

28 · M. Mancisidor

9 · P. Ruiz

26 · M. Hussaini Muhammad

Our number · athletic club ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Athletic Club II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · athletic club ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Athletic Club II win	48%	47%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−2
Real Unión win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
Athletic Club II or draw	73%	73%	0
Athletic Club II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Real Unión clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.4 6.7 4.1 1 9.5 11.7 6.6 2.6 2 8.1 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 4.5 5.2 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Athletic Club II down, Real Unión across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,946 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Athletic Club II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Real Unión away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Athletic Club II, 1.17 for Real Unión. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATH 4–2 REA · REA 3–1 ATH · REA 1–1 ATH · ATH 0–0 REA

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

ATHLETIC CLUB II

DWWDWL1–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–3

REAL UNIÓN

WWLDLD4–1 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Cacereño	7	+3	12
5	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
9	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
10	Real Unión	6	+2	8
11	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
12	Pontevedra	6	0	8
13	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
14	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
15	Mérida AD	6	−2	6
16	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2