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Arenas Getxo v UD Ourense

Arenas Getxo

2–0Full time

UD Ourense

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Fadura

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Arenas Getxo 2–0 UD Ourense ARENAS GETXO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arenas Getxo win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.441

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arenas Getxo win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arenas Getxo 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Arenas Getxo v UD Ourense
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' X. Dominguez · UD Ourense
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' A. Arnedo · Arenas Getxo
26′SUBSTITUTION · 26' UD Ourense · On: N. Gonzalez · Off: D. Tejon
27′We said Arenas Getxo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Arenas Getxo 1–0 UD Ourense
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Arenas Getxo win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
29′27′: J. Cortes on the scoresheet for Arenas Getxo, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Arenas Getxo win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′We said Arenas Getxo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' I. Garcia · Arenas Getxo
45′SECOND HALF Arenas Getxo 1–0 UD Ourense
46′HALF-TIME Arenas Getxo 1–0 UD Ourense
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' UD Ourense · On: M. Gandarillas · Off: J. Cabrera
47′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Arenas Getxo
49′Arenas Getxo are down to ten from 48′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 76–19–6
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Arenas Getxo · On: E. Palacin · Off: J. Cortes
55′We said Arenas Getxo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Arenas Getxo · On: E. Zabaleta · Off: I. Telletxea
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Arenas Getxo 2–0 UD Ourense
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Arenas Getxo win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Arenas Getxo
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Arenas Getxo win: 43% at kick-off, 78% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Champi · UD Ourense
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Arenas Getxo win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Arenas Getxo 2–0 UD Ourense
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Arenas Getxo win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
72′Arenas Getxo ahead on 71′ through R. Torres Manzanares. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' J. Labrada · UD Ourense
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' G. Akogo · Arenas Getxo
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' UD Ourense · On: R. Jansonas · Off: L. Puime Corrected
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' UD Ourense
80′Arenas Getxo have ten men and UD Ourense ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' UD Ourense · On: R. Jansonas · Off: L. Puime
82′We said Arenas Getxo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′We said Arenas Getxo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–6–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Arenas Getxo 2–1 UD Ourense
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' UD Ourense
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' UD Ourense · On: Rivelott Curro · Off: S. Pardo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' UD Ourense · On: Varo · Off: A. Bastida
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Arenas Getxo · On: I. Badiola · Off: I. Garcia
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Arenas Getxo · On: A. Solorzano · Off: A. Arnedo
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Arenas Getxo · On: J. Sanchez · Off: R. Torres Manzanares
98′2–0 at the end. Our 43% on Arenas Getxo comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Arenas Getxo 2–0 UD Ourense
FTArenas Getxo 2–0 UD Ourense · Arenas Getxo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arenas Getxo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arenas Getxo 43%, draw 27%, UD Ourense 30%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Arenas Getxo v UD OurenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arenas Getxo win43%

Draw27%

UD Ourense win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Municipal de Fadura

RefereeM. R. Marco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arenas Getxo

UD Ourense

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	UD Ourense	8	−10	5
20	Arenas Getxo	8	−17	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arenas getxo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Arenas Getxo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arenas Getxo v UD Ourense~~1.40 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 5~~20 v 19

~~The market · Arenas Getxo win~~46% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arenas Getxo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arenas Getxo win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	27%	27%	0
UD Ourense win	30%	27%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Arenas Getxo or draw	70%	73%	−3
Arenas Getxo clean sheet	33%	–	–
UD Ourense clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.7 8.7 5.1 1 10.8 12.8 7.0 2.7 2 7.8 8.6 4.8 3 3.7 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arenas Getxo down, UD Ourense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,962 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Arenas Getxo at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). UD Ourense away: 0.50 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Arenas Getxo, 1.13 for UD Ourense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

ARENAS GETXO

LLLDLL1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–4

UD OURENSE

LLDDWL0–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	9	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	8	+6	17
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
4	Real Unión	9	+5	13
5	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
6	Athletic Club II	8	+3	12
7	Zamora	8	+2	12
8	Cultural Leonesa	8	+2	12
9	Cacereño	8	+2	12
10	Ponferradina	8	0	12
11	Real Avilés	8	+4	11
12	Pontevedra	8	0	11
13	Mirandes	8	0	11
14	Extremadura 1924	8	+1	10
15	Barakaldo	8	−2	9
16	Deportivo La Coruña II	8	−3	8
17	CD Coria	8	−4	8
18	Unionistas de Salamanca	8	−4	7
19	UD Ourense	8	−10	5
20	Arenas Getxo	8	−17	2