Arenas Getxo v Mérida AD prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Arenas Getxo 0–4 Mérida AD ARENAS GETXO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arenas Getxo win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arenas Getxo win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arenas Getxo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Arenas Getxo v Mérida AD
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' J. Zubelzu · Arenas Getxo
17′We said Arenas Getxo at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–62
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Arenas Getxo 0–1 Mérida AD
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Arenas Getxo win: 40% at kick-off, 16% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Mérida AD win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Arenas Getxo win 16%)
18′Mérida AD ahead on 17′ through Gonzalez Nacho. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–62
18′We said Arenas Getxo at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Arenas Getxo 0–2 Mérida AD
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Arenas Getxo win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
19′Kone scores for Mérida AD on 19′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
26′We said Arenas Getxo at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' H. Carrillo · Mérida AD
45′SECOND HALF Arenas Getxo 0–2 Mérida AD
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' I. Garcia · Arenas Getxo
46′🟥 RED CARD · 46' Arenas Getxo
47′A red card for Arenas Getxo on 46′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 2–7–90
47′HALF-TIME Arenas Getxo 0–2 Mérida AD
48′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Arenas Getxo · On: Obon · Off: R. Torres Manzanares Corrected
49′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Arenas Getxo · On: Obon · Off: E. Zabaleta
51′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 2–7–92
51′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–98
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Arenas Getxo 0–3 Mérida AD
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Arenas Getxo win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
52′51′: Kone on the scoresheet for Mérida AD, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' R. Beneit · Mérida AD
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Arenas Getxo · On: E. Palacin · Off: A. Oyon
66′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Arenas Getxo 0–4 Mérida AD
67′Mérida AD ahead on 66′ through R. Beneit. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mérida AD · On: Fito · Off: Barbu
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mérida AD · On: D. Guagua · Off: S. El Ftouhi
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Gonzalez Nacho · Mérida AD
73′PENALTY MISSED · 73' I. Telletxea · Arenas Getxo
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' E. Redondo · Arenas Getxo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arenas Getxo · On: A. Arnedo · Off: I. Garcia
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arenas Getxo · On: U. Bujan · Off: R. Torres Manzanares
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arenas Getxo · On: A. Solorzano · Off: E. Redondo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Mérida AD · On: C. Doncel · Off: J. Areso
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Mérida AD · On: B. Dibrani · Off: J. Lopez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mérida AD · On: A. Aranda · Off: Kone
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Arenas Getxo 1–4 Mérida AD
89′A. Solorzano scores for Arenas Getxo on 88′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Arenas Getxo
95′Full time, 0–4. We called Arenas Getxo at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Arenas Getxo 0–4 Mérida AD
FTArenas Getxo 0–4 Mérida AD · Arenas Getxo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arenas Getxo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arenas Getxo 40%, draw 26%, Mérida AD 34%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Arenas Getxo v Mérida ADBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arenas Getxo win40%

Draw26%

Mérida AD win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Municipal de Fadura

RefereeF. Crespo Puente

Line-ups

Arenas Getxo

Mérida AD

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arenas Getxo

Mérida AD

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Mérida AD	7	−1	9
20	Arenas Getxo	7	−13	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arenas Getxo

Formation not confirmed

13 H. Oleaga

18 R. Torres Manzanares

2 J. Larrauri

5 J. Zubelzu

20 E. Zabaleta

3 A. Lekuna

16 G. Akogo

6 I. Garcia

23 A. Oyon

14 E. Redondo

21 I. Telletxea

Coach · Jon Erice

Substitutes

1 · Obon

25 · E. Benitez

24 · A. Arnedo

8 · I. Badiola

11 · J. Sanchez

17 · U. Bujan

9 · J. Cortes

12 · E. Palacin

26 · A. Sanz

27 · A. Solorzano

Mérida AD

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Csenterics

14 H. Carrillo

4 Gonzalez Nacho

20 Barbu

5 H. Sanz

21 R. Beneit

8 M. Solar

6 J. Lopez

7 J. Areso

24 Kone

11 S. El Ftouhi

Coach · Francisco Beltran

Substitutes

13 · I. Juhasz

26 · A. Gil

16 · Fito

2 · A. Jay

15 · A. Salguero

22 · A. Aranda

23 · G. Almeida

18 · B. Dibrani

17 · D. Guagua

10 · C. Doncel

9 · S. Hallsson

Our number · arenas getxo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Arenas Getxo a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arenas Getxo v Mérida AD~~1.48 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 2 v 9~~20 v 12

~~The market · Arenas Getxo win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arenas Getxo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arenas Getxo win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Mérida AD win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Arenas Getxo or draw	66%	62%	+4
Arenas Getxo clean sheet	26%	–	–
Mérida AD clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 7.7 5.4 2.5 1 8.3 12.0 7.9 3.6 2 6.4 8.5 5.8 2.6 3 3.2 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arenas Getxo down, Mérida AD across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,956 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arenas Getxo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mérida AD away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Arenas Getxo, 1.36 for Mérida AD. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARE 2–0 MER · MER 3–0 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

ARENAS GETXO

LLLLDL1–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–4

MÉRIDA AD

LLLLWW0–1 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	8	+11	22
2	UD Logroñés	7	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
4	Athletic Club II	7	+4	12
5	Cacereño	7	+3	12
6	Zamora	8	+2	12
7	Ponferradina	8	0	12
8	Cultural Leonesa	7	+2	11
9	Mirandes	8	0	11
10	Real Unión	8	+2	10
11	Extremadura 1924	8	+1	10
12	Mérida AD	7	−1	9
13	Barakaldo	8	−2	9
14	Real Avilés	7	+1	8
15	Pontevedra	7	−1	8
16	Deportivo La Coruña II	8	−3	8
17	Unionistas de Salamanca	8	−4	7
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	7	−13	2