Real Sociedad W v Barcelona W prediction · Primera División Femenina

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Real Sociedad W 2–1 Barcelona W BARCELONA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barcelona W win~~87%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.677

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.568

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barcelona W win at 87%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barcelona W 87% before kick-off, 87% now. 0–0 · 5–8–87
1′KICK-OFF Real Sociedad W v Barcelona W
2′Barcelona W ahead on 2′ through P. Guijarro. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–4–95
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Real Sociedad W 0–1 Barcelona W · P. Guijarro
3′Barcelona W ahead on 1′ through P. Guijarro. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–4–95
14′C. Marcos scores for Real Sociedad W on 13′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–11–84
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Real Sociedad W 1–1 Barcelona W · C. Marcos
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' M. Fernandez · Barcelona W
34′The goal count is tracking the 4.3 we expected. 1–1 · 7–16–77
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Barcelona W win: 87% at kick-off, 77% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Bonmati · Barcelona W
39′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 75%. 1–1 · 7–18–75
41′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 74%. 1–1 · 7–19–74
45′HALF-TIME Real Sociedad W 2–1 Barcelona W
46′SECOND HALF Real Sociedad W 2–1 Barcelona W
47′45′: A. Marin Martin on the scoresheet for Real Sociedad W, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 29–29–42
47′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 2–1 · 29–29–42
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Real Sociedad W 2–1 Barcelona W · A. Marin Martin
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Barcelona W win: 87% at kick-off, 42% now
50′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 2–1 · 31–30–39
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Barcelona W win: 87% at kick-off, 37% now
55′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–1 · 35–31–34
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Real Sociedad W win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Barcelona W win 32%)
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' N. Aparicio · Real Sociedad W
59′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–1 · 38–32–29
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Barcelona W · On: S. Schertenleib · Off: A. Bonmati
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Barcelona W · On: Kerolin · Off: C. Julia
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Barcelona W · On: A. Camara · Off: M. Fernandez
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Barcelona W win: 87% at kick-off, 27% now
64′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–1 · 43–33–24
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Sociedad W · On: Maren · Off: N. Eizaguirre
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Sociedad W · On: A. Isasisasmendi · Off: A. Campo Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Sociedad W · On: A. Isasisasmendi · Off: K. Cahynova
68′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 48–33–19
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Barcelona W · On: K. Nazareth · Off: R. Dominguez
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Barcelona W win: 87% at kick-off, 17% now
72′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 54–31–14
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Barcelona W · On: C. Graham · Off: C. Serrajordi
77′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 63–28–9
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Barcelona W win: 87% at kick-off, 7% now
82′We said Barcelona W at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 74–22–4
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' P. Romeu · Barcelona W
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Real Sociedad W · On: I. Eguiguren · Off: C. Marcos
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' G. Alvarez · Real Sociedad W
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Camino · Real Sociedad W
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Real Sociedad W · On: A. Aparicio · Off: A. Marin Martin
FTFULL TIME Real Sociedad W 2–1 Barcelona W
FTReal Sociedad W 2–1 Barcelona W · Barcelona W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barcelona W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Sociedad W 5%, draw 8%, Barcelona W 87%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Real Sociedad W v Barcelona WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Sociedad W win5%

Draw8%

Barcelona W win87%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueInstalaciones de Zubieta

RefereeM. Lopez

Line-ups

Real Sociedad W

Barcelona W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Sociedad W

Barcelona W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Sociedad W

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Estensoro

7 Camino

2 C. Florentino

4 N. Aparicio

3 A. Moraza

11 C. Marcos

8 A. Marin Martin

6 E. Laborde

20 A. Campo

22 K. Cahynova

10 N. Eizaguirre

Coach · Gorka Alvarez

Substitutes

13 · J. Arrula

21 · M. Molina

17 · Maren

27 · A. Isasisasmendi

14 · I. Eguiguren

9 · S. Keefe

19 · A. Aparicio

18 · A. Seelenfreund

Barcelona W

Formation not confirmed

13 C. Coll

24 M. Fernandez

2 I. Paredes

3 R. van Asten

22 E. Brugts

21 C. Julia

12 P. Guijarro

16 C. Serrajordi

14 A. Bonmati

27 R. Dominguez

17 E. Pajor

Coach · Pere Romeu

Substitutes

1 · G. Font

39 · N. Jimenez

8 · M. Torrejon

23 · A. Camara

18 · K. Nazareth

7 · Kerolin

6 · S. Schertenleib

10 · C. Graham

31 · M. Baha

Our number · barcelona w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

87% The market83%

Us87%

~~Market~~83%

We make Barcelona W an 87% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–3.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Sociedad W v Barcelona W~~0.72 – 3.55

~~Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 18~~15 v 1

~~The market · Barcelona W win~~83% · ours 87%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barcelona W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Sociedad W win	5%	7%	−2
Draw	8%	10%	−2
Barcelona W win	87%	83%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	92%	89%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	61%	59%	+2
Real Sociedad W or draw	13%	17%	−4
Real Sociedad W clean sheet	3%	–	–
Barcelona W clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 10.2%

0123450 5.4 8.9 10.2 9.0 6.51 3.5 6.2 7.1 6.2 4.42 2.3 2.7 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Sociedad W down, Barcelona W across0–5 goals a side shown (84.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,252 Primera División Femenina matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.40 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Sociedad W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Barcelona W away: 3.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.72 goals for Real Sociedad W, 3.55 for Barcelona W. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.40

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–1 REA · REA 1–0 BAR · REA 0–6 BAR · BAR 3–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug

REAL SOCIEDAD W

LLDDLW0–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–5 · 1–0

BARCELONA W

WWWWWW5–0 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 6–0 · 2–0 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	6	+26	18
2	Real Madrid W	7	+2	16
3	Athletic Club W	7	+4	14
4	Madrid CFF W	6	+2	13
5	Eibar W	6	0	11
6	Granad. Tenerife W	7	−1	11
7	Granada	7	−3	10
8	Atletico Madrid W	6	−1	9
9	FC Levante Badalona W	7	−3	8
10	Espanyol W	7	+1	8
11	Sevilla W	6	−3	7
12	Edf Logrono W	7	−3	6
13	Deportivo Alavés W	6	−6	6
14	Deportivo de La Coruña W	6	−1	5
15	Real Sociedad W	6	−4	5
16	Valencia W	7	−10	0