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Real Madrid W v Granad. Tenerife W

Real Madrid W
3–2Full time
Granad. Tenerife W

Primera División Femenina · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Real Madrid W 3–2 Granad. Tenerife W REAL MADRID W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Real Madrid W win59%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.255
The market’s Brier score0.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Madrid W win at 59%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Real Madrid W was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Real Madrid W v Granad. Tenerife W
  4. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' M. Lakrar · Real Madrid W
  5. 24′P. Gramaglia scores for Granad. Tenerife W on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 26–27–47
  6. 24′We said Real Madrid W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–27–47
  7. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Real Madrid W 0–1 Granad. Tenerife W · P. Gramaglia
  8. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Real Madrid W win: 59% at kick-off, 26% now
  9. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Granad. Tenerife W win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Real Madrid W win 53%)
  10. 25′P. Gramaglia scores for Granad. Tenerife W on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 26–27–47
  11. 28′We said Real Madrid W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–48
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 24–27–49
  13. 40′We said Real Madrid W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
  14. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Real Madrid W win: 59% at kick-off, 19% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Real Madrid W 0–1 Granad. Tenerife W
  16. 46′We published Real Madrid W at 59%. Our model now makes it 82%. 3–2 · 82–15–4
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Real Madrid W · On: L. Beerensteyn · Off: S. Dabritz
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Real Madrid W · On: S. Cristobal · Off: M. Lakrar
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Real Madrid W 0–1 Granad. Tenerife W
  20. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Real Madrid W win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
  21. 51′We said Real Madrid W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  22. 54′53′: N. Padilla on the scoresheet for Granad. Tenerife W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–87 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  23. 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Real Madrid W 0–2 Granad. Tenerife W · N. Padilla
  24. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Real Madrid W win: 59% at kick-off, 3% now
  25. 55′We said Real Madrid W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  26. 60′Real Madrid W pull one back on 58′ through L. Beerensteyn. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–27–63 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  27. 60′⚽ GOAL · 58' Real Madrid W 1–2 Granad. Tenerife W · L. Beerensteyn (assist L. Keukelaar)
  28. 61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 10–26–64 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  29. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Madrid W · On: A. del Castillo · Off: J. Levels
  30. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Madrid W · On: S. Bruun · Off: L. Keukelaar
  31. 62′We said Real Madrid W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–65 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  32. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' L. Caicedo · Real Madrid W
  33. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Granad. Tenerife W · On: Y. Moreno · Off: A. Mingueza
  34. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Real Madrid W · On: A. Caruso · Off: E. Senss
  35. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Granad. Tenerife W · On: C. Suarez · Off: P. Gramaglia
  36. 79′F. Schroder scores for Real Madrid W on 79′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 18–73–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  37. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Real Madrid W 2–2 Granad. Tenerife W · F. Schroder
  38. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Real Madrid W win: 59% at kick-off, 18% now
  39. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Granad. Tenerife W win 82%)
  40. 80′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 17–75–8 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  41. 81′F. Schroder scores for Real Madrid W on 78′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 16–77–8 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  42. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' M. Yerai · Granad. Tenerife W
  43. 86′85′: S. Bruun on the scoresheet for Real Madrid W, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  44. 86′We published Real Madrid W at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  45. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Real Madrid W 3–2 Granad. Tenerife W · S. Bruun
  46. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Real Madrid W win: 59% at kick-off, 95% now
  47. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Real Madrid W win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 85%)
  48. 87′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 96–4–0
  49. 90′84′: S. Bruun on the scoresheet for Real Madrid W, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 97–3–0
  50. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Real Madrid W win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  51. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Granad. Tenerife W · On: L. Tiwa · Off: Koko
  52. FTFULL TIME Real Madrid W 3–2 Granad. Tenerife W
  53. FTReal Madrid W 3–2 Granad. Tenerife W · Real Madrid W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Madrid W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Madrid W 59%, draw 21%, Granad. Tenerife W 20%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Real Madrid W v Granad. Tenerife WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Real Madrid W win59%
Draw21%
Granad. Tenerife W win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Madrid W

Granad. Tenerife W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Real Madrid W7+216
6Granad. Tenerife W7−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real madrid w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
59% The market65%
Us59%
Market65%

We make Real Madrid W a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Real Madrid W v Granad. Tenerife W1.88 – 0.97
Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 6 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 16 v 112 v 6
The market · Real Madrid W win65% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:28
Our probability · Real Madrid W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Real Madrid W win59%65%−6
Draw21%20%+1
Granad. Tenerife W win20%15%+5
Over 2.5 goals54%64%−10
Both teams to score51%58%−7
Over 1.5 goals77%82%−5
Over 3.5 goals32%44%−12
Real Madrid W or draw80%85%−5
Real Madrid W clean sheet38%––
Granad. Tenerife W clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.4%
0123450 5.7 6.1 2.8 1 11.4 10.0 5.0 2 10.1 9.6 4.7 3 6.4 6.0 2.9 4 3.1 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Real Madrid W down, Granad. Tenerife W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsREA 2–0 GRA · GRA 0–0 REA · REA 1–1 GRA · GRA 1–4 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 6 Sept

REAL MADRID W

DWWWLW0–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 5–3 · 0–7 · 3–1

GRANAD. TENERIFE W

DDLWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Barcelona W7+2518
2Real Madrid W7+216
3Athletic Club W8+415
4Atletico Madrid W8+715
5Madrid CFF W7−213
6Granad. Tenerife W7−111
7Eibar W7−111
8Granada7−310
9Espanyol W8+19
10Real Sociedad W8−39
11Sevilla W8−39
12Deportivo de La Coruña W708
13FC Levante Badalona W7−38
14Deportivo Alavés W7−67
15Edf Logrono W7−36
16Valencia W8−140

The competition's standings before kick-off.