Real Madrid W v Espanyol W prediction · Primera División Femenina

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Real Madrid W 3–1 Espanyol W REAL MADRID W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Madrid W win~~75%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.096

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.073

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Madrid W win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Madrid W was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–15–10
1′KICK-OFF Real Madrid W v Espanyol W
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' M. Mendez · Real Madrid W
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Real Madrid W win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
35′We said Real Madrid W at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 63%. 0–0 · 63–25–11
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Torras · Espanyol W
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' L. Caicedo · Real Madrid W
43′We said Real Madrid W at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–29–11
45′HALF-TIME Real Madrid W 1–0 Espanyol W
46′SECOND HALF Real Madrid W 1–0 Espanyol W
48′45′: S. Dabritz on the scoresheet for Real Madrid W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
48′We published Real Madrid W at 75%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Real Madrid W 1–0 Espanyol W · S. Dabritz
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Real Madrid W win: 75% at kick-off, 89% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' R. Garcia Yague · Espanyol W
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Madrid W · On: F. Schroder · Off: S. Dabritz
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Madrid W · On: P. Comendador · Off: A. del Castillo
62′We published Real Madrid W at 75%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Espanyol W · On: Anita · Off: N. Escot
70′Real Madrid W ahead on 70′ through L. Beerensteyn. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Real Madrid W 2–0 Espanyol W · L. Beerensteyn
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Real Madrid W win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
71′We published Real Madrid W at 75%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
75′We published Real Madrid W at 75%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Espanyol W · On: I. Lacosta · Off: O. Baradad
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Espanyol W · On: P. Arana · Off: M. Torras
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Espanyol W · On: P. Ojeda · Off: R. Garcia Yague
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Madrid W · On: A. Jacinto · Off: A. Caruso
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Madrid W · On: F. Angeldal · Off: L. Beerensteyn
FTFULL TIME Real Madrid W 3–1 Espanyol W
FTReal Madrid W 3–1 Espanyol W · Real Madrid W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Madrid W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Madrid W 75%, draw 15%, Espanyol W 10%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Real Madrid W v Espanyol WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Madrid W win75%

Draw15%

Espanyol W win10%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 7

Line-ups

Real Madrid W

Espanyol W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Madrid W

Espanyol W

13Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 3 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Real Madrid W	6	0	13
10	Espanyol W	6	+3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Madrid W

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Frohms

4 S. Cristobal

14 M. Mendez

22 B. Andersson

2 N. Bejarano

8 S. Dabritz

20 E. Senss

24 A. Caruso

10 A. del Castillo

11 L. Beerensteyn

18 L. Caicedo

Coach · Pau Quesada

Substitutes

13 · L. Lopez

23 · M. Lakrar

3 · J. Levels

21 · S. Holmgaard

16 · F. Angeldal

17 · A. Jacinto

31 · O. San Martin

9 · S. Bruun

7 · L. Keukelaar

12 · F. Schroder

19 · E. Navarro

5 · P. Comendador

Espanyol W

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Munoz

35 A. Domenech

18 R. Garcia Yague

21 J. Guerra

5 L. Vallejo

11 O. Baradad

6 M. Torras

12 Bicho

16 P. Gutierrez

22 P. Browne

24 N. Escot

Coach · Sara Monforte

Substitutes

3 · C. Rodriguez

15 · P. Ojeda

10 · C. Baudet

9 · Anita

19 · P. Arana

7 · I. Lacosta

55 · V. Medina

Our number · real madrid w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

75% The market78%

Us75%

~~Market~~78%

We make Real Madrid W a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Madrid W v Espanyol W~~2.46 – 0.73

~~Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~3 v 10

~~The market · Real Madrid W win~~78% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Madrid W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Madrid W win	75%	78%	−3
Draw	15%	14%	+1
Espanyol W win	10%	8%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Real Madrid W or draw	90%	92%	−2
Real Madrid W clean sheet	49%	–	–
Espanyol W clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.2%

0123450 4.1 3.5 1 10.6 7.1 2.8 2 12.2 8.8 3.3 3 9.9 7.1 2.6 4 6.2 4.4 5 3.2 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Madrid W down, Espanyol W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 Primera División Femenina matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Madrid W at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Espanyol W away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.46 goals for Real Madrid W, 0.73 for Espanyol W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REA 3–0 ESP · ESP 0–1 REA · REA 5–0 ESP · ESP 0–5 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug

REAL MADRID W

WDWWWL3–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 5–3 · 0–7

ESPANYOL W

LLDWDW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	6	+26	18
2	Madrid CFF W	6	+2	13
3	Real Madrid W	6	0	13
4	Athletic Club W	6	+3	11
5	Eibar W	6	0	11
6	Granad. Tenerife W	7	−1	11
7	Granada	7	−3	10
8	Atletico Madrid W	6	−1	9
9	FC Levante Badalona W	7	−3	8
10	Espanyol W	6	+3	8
11	Sevilla W	6	−3	7
12	Edf Logrono W	7	−3	6
13	Deportivo Alavés W	6	−6	6
14	Deportivo de La Coruña W	6	−1	5
15	Real Sociedad W	6	−4	5
16	Valencia W	6	−9	0