Granada v Atletico Madrid W prediction · Primera División Femenina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GranadaDrawAtletico Madrid W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Madrid W 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Madrid W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Granada 23%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid W 54%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Granada v Atletico Madrid WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Granada win23%

Draw22%

Atletico Madrid W win54%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueCiudad Deportiva del Granada

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Granada

Atletico Madrid W

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 23 Oct · Primera División Femenina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Atletico Madrid W	8	+7	15
8	Granada	8	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico madrid w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Atletico Madrid W a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.8, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Granada v Atletico Madrid W~~1.07 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 15~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Granada win	23%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Atletico Madrid W win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Granada or draw	46%	–	–
Granada clean sheet	17%	–	–
Atletico Madrid W clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.6 10.7 9.1 5.5 2.5 1 6.6 10.5 9.5 5.7 2.6 2 3.3 5.8 5.1 3.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Granada down, Atletico Madrid W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,262 Primera División Femenina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Granada at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Madrid W away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Granada, 1.79 for Atletico Madrid W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 GRA · GRA 0–4 ATL · GRA 0–0 ATL · ATL 2–0 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 12 Sept

GRANADA

LLWDWL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3

ATLETICO MADRID W

LWLWWW2–4 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	8	+28	21
2	Real Madrid W	8	+3	19
3	Athletic Club W	8	+4	15
4	Atletico Madrid W	8	+7	15
5	Madrid CFF W	7	−2	13
6	Eibar W	7	−1	11
7	Granad. Tenerife W	8	−2	11
8	Granada	8	−6	10
9	Espanyol W	8	+1	9
10	Edf Logrono W	8	−2	9
11	Real Sociedad W	8	−3	9
12	Sevilla W	8	−3	9
13	Deportivo de La Coruña W	7	0	8
14	FC Levante Badalona W	8	−4	8
15	Deportivo Alavés W	7	−6	7
16	Valencia W	8	−14	0