Eibar W v Madrid CFF W prediction · Primera División Femenina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Eibar WDrawMadrid CFF W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Madrid CFF W 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Madrid CFF W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eibar W 35%, draw 26%, Madrid CFF W 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Eibar W v Madrid CFF WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Eibar W win35%

Draw26%

Madrid CFF W win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstadio Municipal de Ipurua

RefereeB. Cuesta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eibar W

Madrid CFF W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Madrid CFF W	7	−2	13
6	Eibar W	7	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · madrid cff w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Madrid CFF W a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eibar W v Madrid CFF W~~1.23 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~6 v 5

~~The market · Madrid CFF W win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Madrid CFF W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eibar W win	35%	28%	+7
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Madrid CFF W win	40%	43%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	42%	+5
Both teams to score	51%	48%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	66%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	22%	+4
Eibar W or draw	60%	57%	+3
Eibar W clean sheet	27%	–	–
Madrid CFF W clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 10.7 6.9 3.1 1 9.9 12.0 8.2 3.7 2 5.8 7.6 5.0 2.3 3 2.4 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eibar W down, Madrid CFF W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,262 Primera División Femenina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eibar W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Madrid CFF W away: 1.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Eibar W, 1.34 for Madrid CFF W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~EIB 1–3 MAD · MAD 1–0 EIB · EIB 1–2 MAD · MAD 2–1 EIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept

EIBAR W

DLWWDL0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–3

MADRID CFF W

WWLWDL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	8	+28	21
2	Real Madrid W	8	+3	19
3	Athletic Club W	8	+4	15
4	Atletico Madrid W	8	+7	15
5	Madrid CFF W	7	−2	13
6	Eibar W	7	−1	11
7	Granad. Tenerife W	8	−2	11
8	Granada	8	−6	10
9	Espanyol W	8	+1	9
10	Edf Logrono W	8	−2	9
11	Real Sociedad W	8	−3	9
12	Sevilla W	8	−3	9
13	Deportivo de La Coruña W	7	0	8
14	FC Levante Badalona W	8	−4	8
15	Deportivo Alavés W	7	−6	7
16	Valencia W	8	−14	0