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Eibar W v Deportivo de La Coruña W

Eibar W
2–3Full time
Deportivo de La Coruña W

Primera División Femenina · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Ipurua

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Eibar W 2–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W DEPORTIVO DE LA CORUÑA W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Deportivo de La Coruña W win36%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.615
The market’s Brier score0.517

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 43 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo de La Coruña W win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo de La Coruña W 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 33–31–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Eibar W v Deportivo de La Coruña W
  4. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Deportivo de La Coruña W win 32%)
  5. 25′Angeles scores for Eibar W on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
  6. 25′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
  7. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Eibar W 1–0 Deportivo de La Coruña W · Angeles
  8. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 10% now
  9. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Eibar W win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 22%)
  10. 26′Angeles scores for Eibar W on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–9
  11. 26′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  13. 31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Eibar W
  14. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 31% now
  15. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Eibar W win 29%)
  16. 45′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 5–20–74
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Eibar W 0–1 Deportivo de La Coruña W
  18. 46′90′: C. Andres on the scoresheet for Eibar W, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 5–20–75
  19. 46′5 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 5–20–75
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Eibar W 0–1 Deportivo de La Coruña W
  21. 46′⚽ GOAL · 90+12' Eibar W 2–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W · C. Andres
  22. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 75% now
  23. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
  24. 50′Millene scores for Deportivo de La Coruña W on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–19–76
  25. 50′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
  26. 50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 24' Angeles · Eibar W
  27. 50′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Eibar W 0–1 Deportivo de La Coruña W · Millene
  28. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
  29. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+5' Deportivo de La Coruña W win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
  30. 53′53′: C. Andres on the scoresheet for Eibar W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–52–24
  31. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Eibar W 1–1 Deportivo de La Coruña W · C. Andres
  32. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 24% now
  33. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Deportivo de La Coruña W win 24%)
  34. 54′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
  35. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 45+10' E. Moreno · Eibar W
  36. 57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Eibar W
  37. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 78% now
  38. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Deportivo de La Coruña W win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
  39. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 79% now
  40. 60′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  41. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Angeles · Eibar W
  42. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Eibar W · On: N. Sanchez · Off: S. Ortiz
  43. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Eibar W · On: T. De Meester · Off: Angeles
  44. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' E. Botero · Eibar W
  45. 71′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
  46. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
  47. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo de La Coruña W · On: Marisa · Off: Millene
  48. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Eibar W · On: M. Seidl · Off: E. Botero
  49. 78′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  50. 81′81′: Marisa on the scoresheet for Deportivo de La Coruña W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  51. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Eibar W 0–2 Deportivo de La Coruña W · Marisa
  52. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Deportivo de La Coruña W win: 36% at kick-off, over 99% now
  53. 82′We said Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  54. 84′Deportivo de La Coruña W ahead on 84′ through L. Pardo. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  55. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Eibar W 0–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W · L. Pardo
  56. 85′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  57. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo de La Coruña W · On: F. Apostol · Off: L. Rivas
  58. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo de La Coruña W · On: S. Dominguez · Off: A. Gomez
  59. 90′C. Alvarez scores for Eibar W on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  60. 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  61. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Eibar W 1–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W · C. Alvarez
  62. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Deportivo de La Coruña W · On: P. Monteagudo · Off: L. Pardo
  63. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Deportivo de La Coruña W · On: P. Fernandez · Off: E. Alonso
  64. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' A. Belem · Eibar W
  65. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Marisa · Deportivo de La Coruña W
  66. FTFULL TIME Eibar W 2–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W
  67. FTEibar W 2–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W · Deportivo de La Coruña W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Deportivo de La Coruña W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Eibar W 34%, draw 30%, Deportivo de La Coruña W 36%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Eibar W v Deportivo de La Coruña WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Eibar W win34%
Draw30%
Deportivo de La Coruña W win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueEstadio Municipal de Ipurua

RefereeA. Espinosa

Line-ups

Eibar W

Deportivo de La Coruña W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eibar W

Deportivo de La Coruña W

14Days since last match15

Last match: 4 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 3 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Eibar W6011
15Deportivo de La Coruña W6−15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Eibar W

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Wellmann

2 A. Zumarraga

4 C. Andres

14 S. Botero

12 A. Belem

23 S. Ortiz

22 Noe

17 E. Moreno

6 A. Rico Torres

9 C. Alvarez

21 Angeles

Coach · Inaki Goikoetxea

Substitutes

13 · L. Marti

31 · E. Egana

3 · M. Masegur

5 · N. Azpiazu

20 · M. Seidl

16 · M. Carvajal

8 · N. Sanchez

7 · T. De Meester

Deportivo de La Coruña W

Formation not confirmed

13 I. Teixeira Pereira

5 P. Novo

23 M. Barth

6 E. Alonso

4 A. Ranera

17 V. Montesinos

14 L. Rivas

8 O. Rodriguez

21 A. Gomez

19 L. Pardo

10 Millene Cabral

Coach · Alberto Rodriguez

Substitutes

35 · A. Seoane

15 · S. Dominguez

3 · E. Vazquez

2 · D. Caracas

18 · M. Apostol

16 · P. Redruello

26 · P. Hernandez

11 · P. Monteagudo

20 · Marisa

Our number · deportivo de la coruña w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
36% The market41%
Us36%
Market41%

We make Deportivo de La Coruña W a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Eibar W v Deportivo de La Coruña W0.95 – 0.99
Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 AugW3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 11 v 55 v 15
The market · Deportivo de La Coruña W win41% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 14:30
Our probability · Deportivo de La Coruña W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Eibar W win34%28%+6
Draw30%30%0
Deportivo de La Coruña W win36%41%−5
Over 2.5 goals31%39%−8
Both teams to score37%45%−8
Over 1.5 goals57%63%−6
Over 3.5 goals13%20%−7
Eibar W or draw64%59%+5
Eibar W clean sheet38%––
Deportivo de La Coruña W clean sheet39%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%
0123450 14.3 14.8 7.1 2.4 1 14.1 12.6 6.5 2.2 2 6.4 6.2 3.1 3 2.1 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Eibar W down, Deportivo de La Coruña W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.25
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsDEP 2–1 EIB · EIB 1–0 DEP · DEP 0–1 EIB · EIB 0–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug

EIBAR W

WDLWWD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

DEPORTIVO DE LA CORUÑA W

LDLWDL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Barcelona W7+2518
2Real Madrid W7+216
3Athletic Club W7+414
4Madrid CFF W6+213
5Eibar W6011
6Granad. Tenerife W7−111
7Granada7−310
8Atletico Madrid W6−19
9Espanyol W7+18
10Real Sociedad W7−38
11FC Levante Badalona W7−38
12Sevilla W7−38
13Deportivo Alavés W7−67
14Edf Logrono W7−36
15Deportivo de La Coruña W6−15
16Valencia W7−100

The competition's standings before kick-off.