Edf Logrono W v Granada prediction · Primera División Femenina

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Edf Logrono W 2–3 Granada EDF LOGRONO W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Edf Logrono W win~~37%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.710

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Edf Logrono W win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Edf Logrono W was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Edf Logrono W v Granada
20′Granada ahead on 20′ through B. Lopez. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–22–65
20′We said Edf Logrono W at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–22–65
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Edf Logrono W 0–1 Granada · B. Lopez
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Edf Logrono W win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Granada win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Edf Logrono W win 13%)
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' E. Guridi · Granada
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Rebeca · Edf Logrono W
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
38′We said Edf Logrono W at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
44′Isina scores for Edf Logrono W on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–41–29
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Edf Logrono W 1–1 Granada · Isina (penalty)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Edf Logrono W win: 37% at kick-off, 30% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Granada win 29%)
45′HALF-TIME Edf Logrono W 1–1 Granada
46′SECOND HALF Edf Logrono W 1–1 Granada
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Edf Logrono W · On: V. Donolato · Off: A. Leitner
55′55′: E. Guridi on the scoresheet for Granada, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–74
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Edf Logrono W 1–2 Granada · E. Guridi
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Edf Logrono W win: 37% at kick-off, 6% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Granada win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–20–74
59′We said Edf Logrono W at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' E. Guridi · Granada
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Edf Logrono W win: 37% at kick-off, 25% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Granada win 24%)
60′We said Edf Logrono W at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
62′62′: B. Lopez on the scoresheet for Granada, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–19–77
62′We said Edf Logrono W at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
62′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Isina · Edf Logrono W
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Edf Logrono W 1–2 Granada · B. Lopez
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Edf Logrono W win: 37% at kick-off, 4% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Granada win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Granada · On: I. Santiago · Off: B. Lopez
66′Granada ahead on 66′ through N. Sanmartin. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Edf Logrono W 1–3 Granada · N. Sanmartin
67′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–97
68′M. Barquero scores for Edf Logrono W on 68′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 3–17–80
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Edf Logrono W 2–3 Granada · M. Barquero
69′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 3–17–80
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Edf Logrono W · On: C. Ongaro · Off: M. Barquero
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Edf Logrono W · On: F. Altgelt · Off: X. Velazco
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Edf Logrono W · On: A. Peckova · Off: C. Redondo Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Edf Logrono W · On: A. Peckova · Off: J. Morcillo
75′A red card for Granada on 74′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–3 · 2–14–85
75′🟥 RED CARD · 74' M. Kojima · Granada
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Granada · On: T. Merida · Off: E. Guridi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Granada · On: R. Gil · Off: B. Munoz
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Edf Logrono W · On: L. Martinez · Off: D. Falfan
FTFULL TIME Edf Logrono W 2–3 Granada
FTEdf Logrono W 2–3 Granada · Edf Logrono W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Edf Logrono W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Edf Logrono W 37%, draw 26%, Granada 36%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Edf Logrono W v GranadaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Edf Logrono W win37%

Draw26%

Granada win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueEstadio Las Gaunas

Line-ups

Edf Logrono W

Granada

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Edf Logrono W

Granada

13Days since last match13

Last match: 4 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Granada	6	−4	7
12	Edf Logrono W	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Edf Logrono W

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Miralles

22 J. Morcillo

23 Rebeca

8 M. Masferrer Cruz

11 A. Leitner

14 D. Falfan

10 Isina

15 X. Velazco

24 A. Franco

25 C. Redondo

9 M. Barquero

Coach · Santi Garcia

Substitutes

1 · O. Santana

6 · L. Martinez

19 · A. Peckova

21 · N. Stoop

4 · A. Colomina

12 · C. Yeboah

5 · C. Ongaro

18 · V. Donolato

16 · M. Gimenez

20 · O. Adamolekun

2 · F. Altgelt

Granada

Formation not confirmed

13 Y. Gomez

4 J. Lopez

20 Jujuba Cardozo

22 Leles

21 P. Perea

6 D. Gutierrez

14 M. Kojima

18 B. Munoz

8 E. Guridi

11 N. Sanmartin

9 B. Lopez

Coach · Adrian Martin

Substitutes

1 · L. Sanchez

2 · T. Merida

28 · M. Zafra Carmona

7 · I. Santiago

19 · R. Gil

31 · A. Mateos

29 · A. Martos

24 · G. R. Alvarez Huerta

Our number · edf logrono w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market39%

Us37%

~~Market~~39%

We make Edf Logrono W a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Edf Logrono W v Granada~~1.23 – 1.20

~~Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~12 v 11

~~The market · Edf Logrono W win~~39% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Edf Logrono W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Edf Logrono W win	37%	39%	−2
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Granada win	36%	31%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Edf Logrono W or draw	64%	69%	−5
Edf Logrono W clean sheet	31%	–	–
Granada clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.7 11.2 6.4 2.6 1 11.4 12.2 7.6 3.1 2 6.6 7.7 4.6 3 2.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Edf Logrono W down, Granada across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 Primera División Femenina matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Edf Logrono W at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Granada away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Edf Logrono W, 1.20 for Granada. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRA 1–0 EDF · EDF 1–1 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug

EDF LOGRONO W

WLWLLL2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

GRANADA

LWLLWD1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	6	+26	18
2	Madrid CFF W	6	+2	13
3	Real Madrid W	6	0	13
4	Eibar W	6	0	11
5	Athletic Club W	6	+3	11
6	Atletico Madrid W	6	−1	9
7	Espanyol W	6	+3	8
8	FC Levante Badalona W	6	+1	8
9	Granad. Tenerife W	6	−5	8
10	Sevilla W	6	−3	7
11	Granada	6	−4	7
12	Edf Logrono W	6	−2	6
13	Deportivo Alavés W	6	−6	6
14	Deportivo de La Coruña W	6	−1	5
15	Real Sociedad W	6	−4	5
16	Valencia W	6	−9	0