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Deportivo Alavés W v Sevilla W

Deportivo Alavés W
1–1Full time
Sevilla W

Primera División Femenina · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Mendizorrotza

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36
Deportivo Alavés W 1–1 Sevilla W SEVILLA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Sevilla W win39%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.817
The market’s Brier score0.771

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sevilla W win at 39%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sevilla W was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Alavés W v Sevilla W
  4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' N. Lopez · Deportivo Alavés W
  5. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Sevilla W win 33%)
  6. 42′40′: R. Marquez on the scoresheet for Sevilla W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
  7. 42′We published Sevilla W at 39%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
  8. 42′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
  9. 42′⚽ GOAL · 40' Deportivo Alavés W 0–1 Sevilla W · R. Marquez
  10. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Sevilla W win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  11. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Sevilla W win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Alavés W 0–1 Sevilla W
  13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Alavés W · On: H. Ait El Haj · Off: C. Sobron
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Alavés W 0–1 Sevilla W
  15. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Alavés W · On: M. Izal · Off: J. Vidal
  16. 49′Deportivo Alavés W level it on 48′ through A. Guallar. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–44–29
  17. 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Deportivo Alavés W 1–1 Sevilla W · A. Guallar
  18. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sevilla W win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  19. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Sevilla W win 29%)
  20. 55′We said Sevilla W at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
  21. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Deportivo Alavés W · On: L. Navajas · Off: A. Gomez
  22. 62′We said Sevilla W at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–54–24
  23. 70′We said Sevilla W at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
  24. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Sevilla W win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sevilla W · On: J. Blom · Off: C. Blanco
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sevilla W · On: X. Barrios · Off: E. Martin-Pozuelo
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Deportivo Alavés W · On: Y. Diaz · Off: K. Z. Brima
  28. 77′We said Sevilla W at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
  29. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' I. Juan · Deportivo Alavés W
  30. 83′We said Sevilla W at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–84–9
  31. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Sevilla W win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  32. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sevilla W · On: I. Alvarez · Off: A. Alvarez
  33. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Deportivo Alavés W · On: S. Brasero-Carreira · Off: Kim Shin-Ji
  34. 90′We said Sevilla W at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  35. FTFULL TIME Deportivo Alavés W 1–1 Sevilla W
  36. FTDeportivo Alavés W 1–1 Sevilla W · Sevilla W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sevilla W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Alavés W 35%, draw 26%, Sevilla W 39%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Alavés W v Sevilla WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Alavés W win35%
Draw26%
Sevilla W win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueEstadio Mendizorrotza

RefereeP. Cebollada

Line-ups

Deportivo Alavés W

Sevilla W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Alavés W

Sevilla W

15Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 3 Oct · Primera División Femenina

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Sevilla W6−37
13Deportivo Alavés W6−66

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Alavés W

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Fuente

2 L. Parera

5 I. Altamira

21 Pichi

23 J. Vidal

7 C. Sobron

12 Kim Shin-Ji

6 N. Lopez

15 K. Z. Brima

11 A. Gomez

20 A. Guallar

Coach · Andrea Esteban Catalan

Substitutes

13 · S. Polozen

16 · A. Rivero

24 · M. Izal

4 · Amaya

17 · H. Ait El Haj

19 · Y. Diaz

10 · L. Navajas

18 · E. Viles

14 · Celia

8 · S. Brasero-Carreira

9 · Reyes

Sevilla W

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Sullastres

30 A. Lopez

24 A. Marques

16 I. Arnaiz

7 R. Morcillo

6 A. Redondo

23 S. Castello

22 C. Blanco

20 R. Marquez

15 E. Martin-Pozuelo

8 A. Alvarez

Coach · David Losada

Substitutes

13 · M. Echezarreta

4 · I. Alvarez

33 · M. Sierra

21 · G. Gili Giner

10 · J. Blom

34 · C. Ferrer

35 · X. Barrios

Our number · sevilla w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
39% The market36%
Us39%
Market36%

We make Sevilla W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo Alavés W v Sevilla W1.17 – 1.26
Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 AugW2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 6 v 713 v 11
The market · Sevilla W win36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 10:43
Our probability · Sevilla W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo Alavés W win35%36%−1
Draw26%28%−2
Sevilla W win39%36%+3
Over 2.5 goals43%49%−6
Both teams to score48%53%−5
Over 1.5 goals68%72%−4
Over 3.5 goals23%28%−5
Deportivo Alavés W or draw61%64%−3
Deportivo Alavés W clean sheet29%––
Sevilla W clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 8.8 11.8 7.0 3.0 1 10.9 12.0 7.8 3.3 2 6.0 7.3 4.5 3 2.4 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Alavés W down, Sevilla W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsSEV 4–2 DEP · DEP 2–0 SEV · DEP 1–1 SEV · SEV 1–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS W

WLWLLL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–6 · 0–1 · 0–1

SEVILLA W

WLLWLD1–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Barcelona W6+2618
2Real Madrid W7+216
3Athletic Club W7+414
4Madrid CFF W6+213
5Eibar W6011
6Granad. Tenerife W7−111
7Granada7−310
8Atletico Madrid W6−19
9FC Levante Badalona W7−38
10Espanyol W7+18
11Sevilla W6−37
12Edf Logrono W7−36
13Deportivo Alavés W6−66
14Deportivo de La Coruña W6−15
15Real Sociedad W6−45
16Valencia W7−100

The competition's standings before kick-off.