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Barcelona W v Granada

Barcelona W

3–0Full time

Granada

Primera División Femenina · SAT 24 OCT · Estadi Johan Cruyff

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:08

Barcelona W 3–0 Granada BARCELONA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barcelona W win~~95%

~~The market said~~92%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.004

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.012

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barcelona W win at 95%.
1′Much as we predicted: Barcelona W was 95% before kick-off and our model makes it 95% now. 0–0 · 95–4–1
1′KICK-OFF Barcelona W v Granada
9′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Granada · On: P. Perea · Off: Leles
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Barcelona W win: 95% at kick-off, 85% now
44′We said Barcelona W at 95%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 83%. 0–0 · 83–13–3
45′HALF-TIME Barcelona W 0–0 Granada
46′SECOND HALF Barcelona W 0–0 Granada
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' P. Guijarro · Barcelona W
51′We said Barcelona W at 95%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 79%. 0–0 · 79–17–4
55′We expected about 5.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 76–20–4
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Barcelona W · On: C. Pina · Off: A. Camara
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Barcelona W · On: C. Graham · Off: Kerolin
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Barcelona W win: 95% at kick-off, 75% now
58′We said Barcelona W at 95%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 74%. 0–0 · 74–22–4
63′We said Barcelona W at 95%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–27–4
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Barcelona W win: 95% at kick-off, 65% now
67′We said Barcelona W at 95%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–32–4
69′Barcelona W ahead on 67′ through E. Brugts. 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 67' Barcelona W 1–0 Granada · E. Brugts (assist E. Pajor)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Barcelona W win: 95% at kick-off, 96% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Granada · On: M. Zafra Carmona · Off: I. Santiago
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Granada · On: B. Lopez · Off: R. Gil
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Barcelona W 2–0 Granada · C. Graham
73′C. Graham scores for Barcelona W on 72′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Barcelona W · On: M. Fernandez · Off: E. Brugts
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Barcelona W · On: C. Julia · Off: K. Nazareth
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barcelona W · On: R. Dominguez · Off: A. Bonmati
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Granada · On: A. Mateos · Off: N. Sanmartin
91′90′: T. Merida puts it into the Granada net, and it is 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Barcelona W 3–0 Granada · T. Merida (own goal)
FTFULL TIME Barcelona W 3–0 Granada
FTBarcelona W 3–0 Granada · Barcelona W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barcelona W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barcelona W 95%, draw 4%, Granada 1%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Barcelona W v GranadaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Barcelona W win95%

Draw4%

Granada win1%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstadi Johan Cruyff

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barcelona W

Granada

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barcelona w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

95% The market92%

Us95%

~~Market~~92%

We make Barcelona W a 95% chance to win. The market has them at 92%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.5–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barcelona W v Granada~~4.54 – 0.51

~~Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 10~~1 v 8

~~The market · Barcelona W win~~92% · ours 95%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barcelona W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 92% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barcelona W win	95%	92%	+3
Draw	4%	6%	−2
Granada win	1%	2%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Both teams to score	38%	27%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	95%	92%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Barcelona W or draw	99%	98%	+1
Barcelona W clean sheet	61%	–	–
Granada clean sheet	1%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 11.0%

0123450 1 3.4 2 7.0 3.5 3 10.0 5.0 4 11.0 5.4 5 9.8 4.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Barcelona W down, Granada across0–5 goals a side shown (69.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 Primera División Femenina matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barcelona W at home: 4.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Granada away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.54 goals for Barcelona W, 0.51 for Granada. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GRA 0–2 BAR · BAR 2–0 GRA · GRA 0–2 BAR · BAR 10–1 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept

BARCELONA W

WWWWWL4–0 · 4–2 · 6–0 · 2–0 · 7–0 · 1–2

GRANADA

WLLWDW3–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	7	+25	18
2	Real Madrid W	7	+2	16
3	Athletic Club W	8	+4	15
4	Atletico Madrid W	8	+7	15
5	Madrid CFF W	7	−2	13
6	Granad. Tenerife W	7	−1	11
7	Eibar W	7	−1	11
8	Granada	7	−3	10
9	Espanyol W	8	+1	9
10	Real Sociedad W	8	−3	9
11	Sevilla W	8	−3	9
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	7	0	8
13	FC Levante Badalona W	7	−3	8
14	Deportivo Alavés W	7	−6	7
15	Edf Logrono W	7	−3	6
16	Valencia W	8	−14	0