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Atletico Madrid W v Valencia W

Atletico Madrid W

4–0Full time

Valencia W

Primera División Femenina · FRI 23 OCT · Centro Deportivo Alcala de Henares

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Valencia W ATLETICO MADRID W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Madrid W win~~73%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.111

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.064

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Madrid W win at 73%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Madrid W 73% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 73–16–11
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Madrid W v Valencia W
12′12′: S. Jensen on the scoresheet for Atletico Madrid W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–3
12′We said Atletico Madrid W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–3
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Atletico Madrid W 1–0 Valencia W · S. Jensen
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Atletico Madrid W win: 73% at kick-off, 89% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Madrid W 1–0 Valencia W
46′SECOND HALF Atletico Madrid W 1–0 Valencia W
54′Atletico Madrid W ahead on 53′ through M. Zubieta. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
54′We said Atletico Madrid W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Atletico Madrid W 2–0 Valencia W · M. Zubieta
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Atletico Madrid W win: 73% at kick-off, 98% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Valencia W · On: Wifi · Off: N. Marchena
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Valencia W · On: G. Climent · Off: A. Mbadi
62′Gio Garbelini scores for Atletico Madrid W on 61′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′We said Atletico Madrid W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Atletico Madrid W 3–0 Valencia W · Gio Garbelini
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Atletico Madrid W · On: Luany · Off: Gio Garbelini
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atletico Madrid W · On: Gabi Nunes · Off: S. Jensen
68′67′: N. Penalvo on the scoresheet for Atletico Madrid W, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Valencia W · N. Penalvo
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Atletico Madrid W
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Valencia W · N. Penalvo
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' R. Elloh · Valencia W
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Atletico Madrid W · On: J. Hermoso · Off: F. Benitez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Valencia W · On: C. Marin · Off: S. Prat
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Atletico Madrid W · On: Alexia · Off: R. Otermin
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Valencia W · On: E. Gomez · Off: M. Mascarell
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Atletico Madrid W · On: K. Kuhl · Off: M. Zubieta
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Wifi · Valencia W
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valencia W · On: T. Morato · Off: R. Elloh
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' T. Morato · Valencia W
FTFULL TIME Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Valencia W
FTAtletico Madrid W 4–0 Valencia W · Atletico Madrid W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Madrid W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Madrid W 73%, draw 16%, Valencia W 11%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Madrid W v Valencia WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Madrid W win73%

Draw16%

Valencia W win11%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueCentro Deportivo Alcala de Henares

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Madrid W

Valencia W

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Atletico Madrid W	7	+3	12
16	Valencia W	7	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico madrid w winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

73% The market80%

Us73%

~~Market~~80%

We make Atletico Madrid W a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Madrid W v Valencia W~~2.37 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 12 v 0~~5 v 16

~~The market · Atletico Madrid W win~~80% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Madrid W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 73% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Madrid W win	73%	80%	−7
Draw	16%	13%	+3
Valencia W win	11%	7%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	66%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	84%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Atletico Madrid W or draw	89%	93%	−4
Atletico Madrid W clean sheet	48%	–	–
Valencia W clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.3%

0123450 4.5 3.8 1 11.1 7.5 3.0 2 12.3 8.9 3.4 3 9.6 6.9 2.6 4 5.8 4.1 5 2.9 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Madrid W down, Valencia W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,256 Primera División Femenina matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Madrid W at home: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Valencia W away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Atletico Madrid W, 0.74 for Valencia W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–0 VAL · VAL 0–4 ATL · ATL 1–0 VAL · VAL 1–6 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept

ATLETICO MADRID W

WLWLWW1–0 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–0

VALENCIA W

LLLLLL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	7	+25	18
2	Real Madrid W	7	+2	16
3	Athletic Club W	7	+4	14
4	Madrid CFF W	7	−2	13
5	Atletico Madrid W	7	+3	12
6	Granad. Tenerife W	7	−1	11
7	Eibar W	7	−1	11
8	Granada	7	−3	10
9	Espanyol W	7	+1	8
10	Deportivo de La Coruña W	7	0	8
11	Real Sociedad W	7	−3	8
12	FC Levante Badalona W	7	−3	8
13	Sevilla W	7	−3	8
14	Deportivo Alavés W	7	−6	7
15	Edf Logrono W	7	−3	6
16	Valencia W	7	−10	0