Atletico Madrid W v Madrid CFF W prediction · Primera División Femenina

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Madrid CFF W ATLETICO MADRID W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Madrid W win~~68%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.152

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.200

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Madrid W win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Madrid W was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–16–16
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Madrid W v Madrid CFF W
15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' N. Penalvo · Atletico Madrid W
18′S. Jensen scores for Atletico Madrid W on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
18′We published Atletico Madrid W at 68%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Atletico Madrid W 1–0 Madrid CFF W · S. Jensen
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Atletico Madrid W win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
19′19′: C. Segura on the scoresheet for Atletico Madrid W, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Atletico Madrid W 2–0 Madrid CFF W · C. Segura
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atletico Madrid W win: 68% at kick-off, 95% now
20′We published Atletico Madrid W at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Debora Bebe · Madrid CFF W
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' R. Lejeune · Madrid CFF W
37′Atletico Madrid W ahead on 37′ through F. Iannuzzi. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Atletico Madrid W 3–0 Madrid CFF W · F. Iannuzzi (penalty)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Atletico Madrid W win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Madrid CFF W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Madrid CFF W · On: H. Ubamba · Off: S. Ouzraoui
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atletico Madrid W · On: H. Csiszar · Off: N. Penalvo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Madrid CFF W · On: M. Silva · Off: E. Holt
46′SECOND HALF Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Madrid CFF W
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Madrid CFF W · On: A. Ruiz · Off: Debora Bebe Corrected
52′S. Jensen scores for Atletico Madrid W on 45′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′We published Atletico Madrid W at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 45+7' Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Madrid CFF W · S. Jensen
55′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Lauren Leal · Atletico Madrid W
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' H. Csiszar · Atletico Madrid W
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Madrid W · On: Luany · Off: C. Segura
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' K. Taylor · Madrid CFF W
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atletico Madrid W · On: J. Hermoso · Off: F. Iannuzzi Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atletico Madrid W · On: Gabi Nunes · Off: S. Jensen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Madrid CFF W · On: Monica · Off: R. Carrasco
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Madrid CFF W · On: S. Hernandez · Off: R. Lejeune
82′A red card for Atletico Madrid W on 82′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atletico Madrid W · On: X. Perez · Off: Lauren Leal
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Lola · Atletico Madrid W
FTFULL TIME Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Madrid CFF W
FTAtletico Madrid W 4–0 Madrid CFF W · Atletico Madrid W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Madrid W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Madrid W 68%, draw 16%, Madrid CFF W 16%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Madrid W v Madrid CFF WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Madrid W win68%

Draw16%

Madrid CFF W win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCentro Deportivo Alcala de Henares

RefereeA. Acevedo

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid W

Madrid CFF W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Madrid W

Madrid CFF W

15Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Primera División Femenina

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Madrid CFF W	6	+2	13
8	Atletico Madrid W	6	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid W

Formation not confirmed

1 Lola

2 L. M. Rodriguez Herrero

19 V. Calligaris

4 Lauren Leal

11 R. Otermin

10 F. Benitez

6 M. Zubieta

14 N. Penalvo

18 Gio Garbelini

7 S. Jensen

16 C. Segura

Coach · David Gonzalez

Substitutes

13 · G. Perez

5 · X. Perez

3 · L. Rodriguez

21 · H. Csiszar

12 · K. Kuhl

20 · Gabi Nunes

22 · Luany

23 · Alexia

9 · J. Hermoso

Madrid CFF W

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Ulloa

4 S. Villafane

2 K. Taylor

12 R. Lejeune

14 R. Carrasco

21 M. Rivas

6 A. Gonzalez Rosa

10 Bebe

8 E. Holt

23 E. Nautnes

7 S. Ouzraoui

Coach · Jose Sanchez

Substitutes

13 · B. de Gracia

11 · A. Ruiz

5 · Monica

24 · H. Ubamba

28 · S. Hernandez

9 · P. Leon

18 · M. Silva

17 · A. Herrera

Our number · atletico madrid w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market64%

Us68%

~~Market~~64%

We make Atletico Madrid W a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Madrid W v Madrid CFF W~~2.61 – 1.15

~~Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~8 v 4

~~The market · Atletico Madrid W win~~64% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Madrid W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Madrid W win	68%	64%	+4
Draw	16%	21%	−5
Madrid CFF W win	16%	16%	0
Over 2.5 goals	71%	64%	+7
Both teams to score	62%	59%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	51%	43%	+8
Atletico Madrid W or draw	84%	84%	0
Atletico Madrid W clean sheet	32%	–	–
Madrid CFF W clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.3 3.2 1 6.7 6.8 4.1 2 7.9 8.9 5.1 3 6.7 7.5 4.3 4 4.4 4.9 2.8 5 2.4 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Madrid W down, Madrid CFF W across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,252 Primera División Femenina matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Madrid W at home: 2.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Madrid CFF W away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.61 goals for Atletico Madrid W, 1.15 for Madrid CFF W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–0 MAD · MAD 1–1 ATL · MAD 0–3 ATL · ATL 4–0 MAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 29 Aug

ATLETICO MADRID W

LWLWLW2–3 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

MADRID CFF W

WWWLWD3–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	7	+25	18
2	Real Madrid W	7	+2	16
3	Athletic Club W	7	+4	14
4	Madrid CFF W	6	+2	13
5	Eibar W	6	0	11
6	Granad. Tenerife W	7	−1	11
7	Granada	7	−3	10
8	Atletico Madrid W	6	−1	9
9	Espanyol W	7	+1	8
10	Real Sociedad W	7	−3	8
11	FC Levante Badalona W	7	−3	8
12	Sevilla W	7	−3	8
13	Deportivo Alavés W	7	−6	7
14	Edf Logrono W	7	−3	6
15	Deportivo de La Coruña W	6	−1	5
16	Valencia W	7	−10	0