Athletic Club W v Valencia W prediction · Primera División Femenina

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Athletic Club W 1–0 Valencia W ATHLETIC CLUB W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Athletic Club W win~~57%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.277

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.213

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Athletic Club W win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Athletic Club W 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
1′KICK-OFF Athletic Club W v Valencia W
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' D. Agote · Athletic Club W
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' C. Saez · Valencia W
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Athletic Club W win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
41′We said Athletic Club W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–36–19
43′We said Athletic Club W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–18
45′HALF-TIME Athletic Club W 0–0 Valencia W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Valencia W · On: R. Elloh · Off: L. Moral
46′SECOND HALF Athletic Club W 0–0 Valencia W
53′We said Athletic Club W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Athletic Club W win 39%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–45–17
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Athletic Club W win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
61′We said Athletic Club W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–15
62′Athletic Club W ahead on 61′ through S. Ortega. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
62′Athletic Club W ahead on 62′ through an own goal by A. Pinguet. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Athletic Club W 1–0 Valencia W · S. Ortega
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Athletic Club W win: 57% at kick-off, 85% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Athletic Club W win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
63′We said Athletic Club W at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Athletic Club W · On: J. Amezaga · Off: A. Azkona
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Athletic Club W · On: N. Zaldivar · Off: G. Facila
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Athletic Club W win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Valencia W · On: T. Morato · Off: L. Perez Sanchez
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Valencia W · On: C. Marin · Off: G. Flordelis
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Valencia W · On: M. Mascarell · Off: N. Marchena
76′We said Athletic Club W at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Athletic Club W · On: C. Pinedo · Off: D. Agote
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Athletic Club W · On: Iribarren · Off: E. Gurtubay
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Valencia W · On: S. Prat · Off: D. Marcano
84′We said Athletic Club W at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Athletic Club W · On: A. Campos · Off: S. Ortega
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Pauleta · Valencia W
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Athletic Club W win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Athletic Club W 1–0 Valencia W
FTAthletic Club W 1–0 Valencia W · Athletic Club W win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Athletic Club W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Athletic Club W 57%, draw 23%, Valencia W 20%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Athletic Club W v Valencia WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Athletic Club W win57%

Draw23%

Valencia W win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueLezama Facilities

Line-ups

Athletic Club W

Valencia W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Athletic Club W

Valencia W

14Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 4 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Athletic Club W	6	+3	11
16	Valencia W	6	−9	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Athletic Club W

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Nanclares

3 N. Landaluze

2 M. Torre Larranaga

23 E. Arana

12 G. Facila

20 A. Elexpuru

5 M. Valero

33 E. Gurtubay

17 D. Agote

18 S. Ortega

11 A. Azkona

Coach · Victor Martin

Substitutes

1 · E. Astralaga

21 · M. Artero

22 · A. Martinez

27 · N. Benito

15 · C. Pinedo

6 · I. Oguiza

16 · Iribarren

10 · P. Zugasti

8 · A. Campos

19 · M. Vilarino

7 · J. Amezaga

Valencia W

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Pinguet

3 L. Perez

5 N. Martin

18 C. Saez

14 Pauleta

2 S. Tamarit

21 Y. K. Mrabet

6 G. Climent

7 D. Marcano

32 N. Marchena

19 Wifi

Coach · Mikel Crespo

Substitutes

13 · M. Llacer

11 · M. Mascarell

4 · C. Fernandez

8 · C. Marin

17 · T. Morato

10 · R. Elloh

9 · S. Prat

Our number · athletic club w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market63%

Us57%

~~Market~~63%

We make Athletic Club W a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Athletic Club W v Valencia W~~1.72 – 0.89

~~Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 11 v 0~~4 v 16

~~The market · Athletic Club W win~~63% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Athletic Club W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Athletic Club W win	57%	63%	−6
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Valencia W win	20%	15%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Athletic Club W or draw	80%	85%	−5
Athletic Club W clean sheet	42%	–	–
Valencia W clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 7.3 7.1 3.0 1 13.1 10.6 4.9 2 10.7 9.2 4.1 3 6.2 5.3 2.4 4 2.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Athletic Club W down, Valencia W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 Primera División Femenina matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Athletic Club W at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Valencia W away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Athletic Club W, 0.89 for Valencia W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VAL 0–1 ATH · ATH 1–1 VAL · ATH 2–0 VAL · VAL 1–2 ATH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Primera División Femenina this season · since 30 Aug

ATHLETIC CLUB W

WWDLWD3–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–2

VALENCIA W

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	6	+26	18
2	Madrid CFF W	6	+2	13
3	Real Madrid W	6	0	13
4	Athletic Club W	6	+3	11
5	Eibar W	6	0	11
6	Granad. Tenerife W	7	−1	11
7	Granada	7	−3	10
8	Atletico Madrid W	6	−1	9
9	FC Levante Badalona W	7	−3	8
10	Espanyol W	6	+3	8
11	Sevilla W	6	−3	7
12	Edf Logrono W	7	−3	6
13	Deportivo Alavés W	6	−6	6
14	Deportivo de La Coruña W	6	−1	5
15	Real Sociedad W	6	−4	5
16	Valencia W	6	−9	0