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Athletic Club W v Sevilla W

Athletic Club W

0–0Full time

Sevilla W

Primera División Femenina · SAT 24 OCT · Lezama Facilities

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Athletic Club W 0–0 Sevilla W ATHLETIC CLUB W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Athletic Club W win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.865

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Athletic Club W win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Athletic Club W was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Athletic Club W v Sevilla W
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Athletic Club W win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Athletic Club W 0–0 Sevilla W
46′SECOND HALF Athletic Club W 0–0 Sevilla W
47′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–41–23
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Athletic Club W win 38%)
51′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' S. Castello · Sevilla W
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–47–21
61′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Athletic Club W · On: E. Gurtubay · Off: J. Amezaga
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Athletic Club W · On: D. Agote · Off: N. Landaluze
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Athletic Club W win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
69′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sevilla W · On: J. Blom · Off: A. Alvarez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sevilla W · On: G. Gili Giner · Off: E. Martin-Pozuelo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sevilla W · On: X. Barrios · Off: S. Castello
75′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Athletic Club W win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Athletic Club W · On: A. Campos · Off: A. Azkona
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Athletic Club W · On: G. Facila · Off: N. Benito
78′🟨 YELLOW · 75' A. Lopez · Sevilla W
80′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sevilla W · On: L. Perez · Off: A. Lopez
84′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Athletic Club W win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Athletic Club W · On: Iribarren · Off: S. Ortega
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sevilla W · On: I. Alvarez · Off: C. Blanco
91′We said Athletic Club W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Athletic Club W 0–0 Sevilla W
FTAthletic Club W 0–0 Sevilla W · Athletic Club W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Athletic Club W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Athletic Club W 48%, draw 25%, Sevilla W 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Athletic Club W v Sevilla WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Athletic Club W win48%

Draw25%

Sevilla W win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueLezama Facilities

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Athletic Club W

Sevilla W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División Femenina

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División Femenina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Athletic Club W	7	+4	14
13	Sevilla W	7	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · athletic club w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Athletic Club W a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Athletic Club W v Sevilla W~~1.49 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~4 v 13

~~The market · Athletic Club W win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Athletic Club W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Athletic Club W win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Sevilla W win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Athletic Club W or draw	73%	76%	−3
Athletic Club W clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sevilla W clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 8.8 4.4 1 12.4 11.7 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.4 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Athletic Club W down, Sevilla W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 Primera División Femenina matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División Femenina matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Athletic Club W at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sevilla W away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Athletic Club W, 1.04 for Sevilla W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEV 4–0 ATH · ATH 1–1 SEV · ATH 0–1 SEV · SEV 2–5 ATH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División Femenina this season · since 5 Sept

ATHLETIC CLUB W

WDLWDW1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

SEVILLA W

LLWLDD0–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona W	7	+25	18
2	Real Madrid W	7	+2	16
3	Atletico Madrid W	8	+7	15
4	Athletic Club W	7	+4	14
5	Madrid CFF W	7	−2	13
6	Granad. Tenerife W	7	−1	11
7	Eibar W	7	−1	11
8	Granada	7	−3	10
9	Espanyol W	7	+1	8
10	Deportivo de La Coruña W	7	0	8
11	Real Sociedad W	7	−3	8
12	FC Levante Badalona W	7	−3	8
13	Sevilla W	7	−3	8
14	Deportivo Alavés W	7	−6	7
15	Edf Logrono W	7	−3	6
16	Valencia W	8	−14	0