Villarreal v Espanyol prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VillarrealDrawEspanyol

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Villarreal 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villarreal are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villarreal 63%, draw 21%, Espanyol 17%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Villarreal v EspanyolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Villarreal win63%

Draw21%

Espanyol win17%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio de la Ceramica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villarreal

Espanyol

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · La Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Villarreal	9	0	9
17	Espanyol	9	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villarreal winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

63% The market60%

Us63%

~~Market~~60%

We make Villarreal a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villarreal v Espanyol~~2.12 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~13 v 17

~~The market · Villarreal win~~60% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Villarreal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villarreal win	63%	60%	+3
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Espanyol win	17%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Villarreal or draw	83%	82%	+1
Villarreal clean sheet	37%	–	–
Espanyol clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.9%

0123450 4.8 4.3 2.3 1 9.3 9.6 4.7 2 9.9 9.8 4.9 3 6.9 6.9 3.4 4 3.7 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villarreal down, Espanyol across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 La Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villarreal at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Espanyol away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Villarreal, 1.00 for Espanyol. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 4–1 ESP · ESP 0–2 VIL · VIL 1–0 ESP · ESP 1–2 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 12 Sept

VILLARREAL

LWWLDW1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

ESPANYOL

WLLDLL2–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Levante	9	−2	10
12	Elche	10	−3	10
13	Villarreal	9	0	9
14	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
15	Getafe	9	−6	9
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
17	Espanyol	9	−1	8
18	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5