Villarreal v Elche

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Villarreal win at 66%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Villarreal was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–16
3. 2′KICK-OFF Villarreal v Elche
4. 12′We published Villarreal at 66%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
5. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Villarreal 1–0 Elche
6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
7. 13′Villarreal find the net on 12′. 0–0 · 63–21–16
8. 13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Villarreal
9. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 63% now
10. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Elche · On: Federico Redondo Solari · Off: Marc Aguado
11. 31′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 83–12–5
12. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Villarreal 1–0 Elche
13. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 83% now
14. 32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Villarreal
15. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 57% now
16. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
17. 37′7 shots for Villarreal, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 55–28–17
18. 39′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–29–17
19. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Gonzalo Villar · Elche
20. 43′9 shots for Villarreal, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 53–31–17
21. 45′SECOND HALF Villarreal 0–0 Elche
22. 46′Villarreal have had 12 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 52–32–17
23. 46′HALF-TIME Villarreal 0–0 Elche
24. 50′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–16
25. 55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 46–38–16
26. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
27. 58′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
28. 62′Villarreal have had 16 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–44–15
29. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal
30. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Villarreal win 40%)
31. 65′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–47–14
32. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Elche · On: Tete Morente · Off: Lucas Cepeda
33. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Elche · On: Martim Neto · Off: Thomas Lemar
34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Elche · On: Fernando Niño Rodríguez · Off: Abiel Alessio Osorio
35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Villarreal · On: Georges Mikautadze · Off: Santi Comesaña Corrected
36. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Villarreal · On: Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Off: Carlos Macià
37. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Villarreal · On: Pape Gueye · Off: Tani Oluwaseyi Corrected
38. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 36% now
39. 70′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–13
40. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Tete Morente · Elche
41. 75′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–61–11
42. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Roy Revivo · Elche
43. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Villarreal · On: Gerard Moreno · Off: Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
44. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 25% now
45. 78′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–67–10
46. 81′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–73–8
47. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Alex Freeman · Villarreal
48. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 15% now
49. 84′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–81–6
50. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Elche · On: Ruben Sanchez Saez · Off: Buba Sangaré
51. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Villarreal · On: Nizar El Jmili · Off: Ayoze Pérez
52. 88′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
53. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Villarreal win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
54. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Juan Foyth · Villarreal
55. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Víctor Chust · Elche
56. 93′We said Villarreal at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–2
57. 97′Full time, 0–0. We called Villarreal at 66% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
58. FTFULL TIME Villarreal 0–0 Elche
59. FTVillarreal 0–0 Elche · Villarreal win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.