Valencia v Villarreal

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Villarreal win at 42%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Villarreal was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
3. 2′KICK-OFF Valencia v Villarreal
4. 15′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Valencia · On: Daniel Raba Antolín · Off: David Otorbi Ejededawe
5. 33′Villarreal have had 8 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 30–33–37
6. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Daniel Raba Antolín · Valencia
7. 38′We said Villarreal at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 64–23–13
8. 38′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 64–23–13
9. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Valencia 1–0 Villarreal
10. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
11. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Valencia win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Villarreal win 36%)
12. 39′Valencia ahead on 38′ through José Luis García Vayá. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–23–12
13. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Renato Veiga · Villarreal
14. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
15. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal
16. 45′SECOND HALF Valencia 1–0 Villarreal
17. 50′We said Villarreal at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
18. 50′HALF-TIME Valencia 1–0 Villarreal
19. 55′We said Villarreal at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 92–6–1
20. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Valencia 2–0 Villarreal
21. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
22. 56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Valencia
23. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
24. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Tajon Buchanan · Villarreal
25. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Pablo Maffeo · Valencia
26. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Guido Rodríguez · Valencia
27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Villarreal · On: Sergi Cardona Bermúdez · Off: Juan Foyth
28. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Villarreal · On: Alberto Moleiro · Off: Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
29. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Villarreal · On: Georges Mikautadze · Off: Ayoze Pérez
30. 69′We said Villarreal at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 19–58–23
31. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Valencia 1–1 Villarreal
32. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 23% now
33. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Valencia win 76%)
34. 70′Alex Freeman scores for Villarreal on 69′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–59–22
35. 71′17 shots for Villarreal, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–60–22
36. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Valencia · On: Arnau Martínez López · Off: Daniel Raba Antolín
37. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Valencia · On: Harvey Elliott · Off: Javi Guerra
38. 74′We said Villarreal at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–64–19
39. 79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Villarreal
40. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Valencia · On: Filip Ugrinic · Off: Pablo Maffeo
41. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Valencia · On: Hugo Duro · Off: Justin De Haas
42. 82′A red card for Villarreal on 79′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 10–79–11
43. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
44. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Villarreal · On: Santi Comesaña · Off: Gerard Moreno
45. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Villarreal · On: Pau Navarro · Off: Tajon Buchanan
46. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Valencia
47. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Harvey Elliott · Valencia
48. 91′Red cards for both sides: Valencia down to ten, Villarreal to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 3–93–4
49. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
50. 95′We published Villarreal at 42%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
51. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Valencia 1–2 Villarreal
52. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Villarreal win: 42% at kick-off, 99% now
53. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Villarreal win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
54. 96′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
55. 97′90′: Georges Mikautadze on the scoresheet for Villarreal, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
56. FTFULL TIME Valencia 1–2 Villarreal
57. FTValencia 1–2 Villarreal · Villarreal win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.