Valencia v Athletic Club prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club VALENCIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valencia win~~36%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valencia win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Valencia 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Valencia v Athletic Club
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Daniel Raba Antolín · Valencia
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Valencia win 32%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Beñat Gerenabarrena · Athletic Club
45′SECOND HALF Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club
46′HALF-TIME Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Mikel Jauregizar · Off: Beñat Gerenabarrena
85′We said Valencia at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–0 · 6–87–6
85′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Valencia · On: Luis Rioja · Off: Daniel Raba Antolín
85′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Valencia · On: David Otorbi Ejededawe · Off: Hugo Duro
85′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta · Athletic Club
85′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Athletic Club · On: Jesus Areso · Off: Johaneko Louis-Jean
85′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Athletic Club · On: Gorka Guruzeta · Off: Iñaki Williams
85′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Athletic Club · On: Alejandro Rego Mora · Off: Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta
85′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Athletic Club · On: Maroan Sannadi · Off: Gorka Guruzeta
85′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Valencia · On: Harvey Elliott · Off: Justin De Haas
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Valencia win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
87′16 shots for Valencia, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 5–89–5
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Valencia · On: Jesús Vázquez · Off: José Gayà
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Valencia · On: Filip Ugrinic · Off: Guido Rodríguez
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' José Luis García Vayá · Valencia
89′We said Valencia at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' César Tárrega Requeni · Valencia
93′0–0 at the end. Our 36% on Valencia misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club
FTValencia 0–0 Athletic Club · Valencia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Valencia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Valencia 36%, draw 29%, Athletic Club 35%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Valencia v Athletic ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Valencia win36%

Draw29%

Athletic Club win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstadio de Mestalla

RefereeAdrian Cordero Vega

Line-ups

Valencia

4-2-3-1

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valencia

Athletic Club

6Days since last match28

Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 19 Sept · La Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
19	Valencia	8	−9	5

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Athletic Club winger Nico Williams turned down PSG moveGet French Football News · 16 Oct 15:24 · Athletic Club, Paris Saint Germain

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Valencia

4-2-3-1

1 S. Dimitrievski

24 P. Maffeo

5 C. Tarrega

12 J. De Haas

14 J. Gaya

18 Pepelu

2 G. Rodriguez

19 D. Raba

8 J. Guerra

7 A. Danjuma

9 H. Duro

Coach · Javier Aguirre

Substitutes

25 · K. van Oevelen

4 · M. Diakhaby

21 · J. Vazquez

22 · A. Martinez

33 · A. Mayol

15 · A. Dieng

23 · F. Ugrinic

10 · H. Elliott

39 · R. Sato

11 · L. Rioja

27 · D. Otorbi

37 · A. Blazquez

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

1 U. Simon

15 H. Rincon

4 A. Paredes

14 A. Laporte

31 J. Louis-Jean

24 B. Gerenabarrena

16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta

7 A. Berenguer

28 P. Canales

23 R. Navarro

9 I. Williams

Coach · Edin Terzic

Substitutes

13 · A. Padilla

17 · Y. Berchiche

5 · Y. Alvarez

3 · D. Vivian

12 · J. Areso

20 · A. Rego

6 · B. Prados Diaz

18 · M. Jauregizar

22 · N. Serrano

11 · G. Guruzeta

21 · M. Sannadi

33 · C. Imga

Our number · valencia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market29%

Us36%

~~Market~~29%

We make Valencia a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valencia v Athletic Club~~1.17 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~19 v 11

~~The market · Valencia win~~29% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Valencia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 27% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valencia win	36%	29%	+7
Draw	29%	29%	0
Athletic Club win	35%	42%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Valencia or draw	65%	58%	+7
Valencia clean sheet	32%	–	–
Athletic Club clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.1 11.0 6.5 2.5 1 11.2 13.3 7.5 2.9 2 6.7 7.7 4.4 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valencia down, Athletic Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,979 La Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valencia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Athletic Club away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Valencia, 1.15 for Athletic Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATH 0–1 VAL · VAL 1–2 ATH · VAL 2–0 ATH · VAL 0–1 ATH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 22 Aug

VALENCIA

LLLWLD1–3 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2

ATHLETIC CLUB

LLWWDD1–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Betis	8	+5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
9	Villarreal	9	0	9
10	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
11	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
12	Espanyol	9	−1	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Getafe	8	−6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	−10	8
16	Osasuna	8	−10	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	8	−9	5
20	Malaga	8	−9	4