Sevilla v Osasuna prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SevillaDrawOsasuna

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sevilla 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sevilla are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sevilla 46%, draw 26%, Osasuna 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sevilla v OsasunaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sevilla win46%

Draw26%

Osasuna win28%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sevilla

Osasuna

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · La Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sevilla winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Sevilla a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sevilla v Osasuna~~1.52 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~6 v 10

~~The market · Sevilla win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sevilla win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sevilla win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Osasuna win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	52%	49%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	25%	+2
Sevilla or draw	72%	77%	−5
Sevilla clean sheet	33%	–	–
Osasuna clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.6 7.8 4.5 1 10.6 12.4 6.7 2.5 2 8.3 9.1 5.1 3 4.2 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sevilla down, Osasuna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 La Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sevilla at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Osasuna away: 1.33 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Sevilla, 1.11 for Osasuna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OSA 2–1 SEV · SEV 1–0 OSA · OSA 1–0 SEV · SEV 1–1 OSA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept

SEVILLA

DWWLDL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–4

OSASUNA

LLLDLW2–5 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Levante	9	−2	10
12	Elche	10	−3	10
13	Villarreal	9	0	9
14	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
15	Getafe	9	−6	9
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
17	Espanyol	9	−1	8
18	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5