Real Sociedad v Levante prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real SociedadDrawLevante

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Sociedad 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Sociedad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Sociedad 53%, draw 23%, Levante 24%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Real Sociedad v LevanteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Sociedad win53%

Draw23%

Levante win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAnoeta Stadium

RefereeJavier Alberola Rojas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Sociedad

Levante

3Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 21 Oct · La Liga

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
13	Levante	9	−2	10

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Real Sociedad equal their record European away win at Lillestrøm as Sergio Gómez becomes their top Europa League scorerFootball España · 23 Oct 07:59 · Real Sociedad

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real sociedad winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

53% The market59%

Us53%

~~Market~~59%

We make Real Sociedad a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Sociedad v Levante~~1.92 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 3 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~5 v 13

~~The market · Real Sociedad win~~59% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Sociedad win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Sociedad win	53%	59%	−6
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Levante win	24%	19%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	58%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	39%	0
Real Sociedad or draw	76%	81%	−5
Real Sociedad clean sheet	29%	–	–
Levante clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.6 5.1 3.3 1 7.9 10.3 6.2 2.6 2 7.8 9.5 5.9 2.5 3 5.0 6.1 3.8 4 2.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Sociedad down, Levante across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 La Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Sociedad at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Levante away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Real Sociedad, 1.24 for Levante. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–0 LEV · LEV 1–1 REA · LEV 2–1 REA · REA 1–0 LEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 3 Sept

REAL SOCIEDAD

DWLWWW0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 5–2

LEVANTE

DLLDDW0–0 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	+12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Villarreal	10	+1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	0	11
11	Osasuna	9	−8	11
12	Racing Santander	10	−11	11
13	Levante	9	−2	10
14	Elche	10	−3	10
15	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
16	Getafe	9	−6	9
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
18	Espanyol	10	−2	8
19	Valencia	10	−10	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5