Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Real Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La Coruna REAL SOCIEDAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Sociedad win~~50%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.372

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Sociedad win at 50%.
1′KICK-OFF Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna
2′Much as we predicted: Real Sociedad was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Real Sociedad 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Real Sociedad 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Real Sociedad 2–0 Deportivo La Coruna · Jon Martin
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Real Sociedad 2–0 Deportivo La Coruna · Arsen Zakharyan
39′🟨 YELLOW · 40' David Mella · Deportivo La Coruna
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Riki Rodríguez · Off: David Mella Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Real Sociedad 2–0 Deportivo La Coruna
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Real Sociedad 3–0 Deportivo La Coruna · Arsen Zakharyan
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Real Sociedad 3–0 Deportivo La Coruna · Gonçalo Guedes
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Real Sociedad · On: Job Ochieng · Off: Gonçalo Guedes Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Real Sociedad · On: Mikel Oyarzabal · Off: Arsen Zakharyan Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Adria Altimira · Off: Ximo Navarro Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Lorenzo Amatucci · Off: Diego Villares Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Adama Traoré · Off: Luismi Cruz Corrected
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Real Sociedad 4–0 Deportivo La Coruna · Gonçalo Guedes
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Real Sociedad 3–1 Deportivo La Coruna · Gonçalo Guedes
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Real Sociedad 3–1 Deportivo La Coruna · Mario Soriano
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Deportivo La Coruna
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Pablo Marin · Real Sociedad
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Real Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La Coruna · Mario Soriano
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Real Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La Coruna · Yeremay Hernández
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Real Sociedad · On: Igor Zubeldia · Off: Carlos Soler Corrected
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' José María Giménez · Deportivo La Coruna
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Jonathan Asp Jensen · Off: Giacomo Quagliata Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Real Sociedad · On: Hector Fort · Off: Ander Barrenetxea Corrected
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Deportivo La Coruna
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Lorenzo Amatucci · Deportivo La Coruna
95′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Yangel Herrera · Real Sociedad
FTFULL TIME Real Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La Coruna
FTReal Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La Coruna · Real Sociedad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Sociedad win50%

Draw25%

Deportivo La Coruna win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:15

VenueAnoeta Stadium

RefereeMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Line-ups

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

Deportivo La Coruna

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Sociedad

Deportivo La Coruna

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	−4	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

1 A. Remiro

15 P. Marin

6 J. Martin

19 M. Sarr

17 S. Gomez

7 A. Barrenetxea

21 Y. Herrera

18 C. Soler

11 G. Guedes

24 L. Sucic

23 A. Zakharyan

Coach · Pellegrino Matarazzo

Substitutes

13 · U. Marrero

34 · L. Beitia

5 · I. Zubeldia

16 · J. Pacheco

3 · A. Munoz

22 · H. Fort

8 · B. Turrientes

4 · J. Gorrotxategi

12 · J. Ochieng

27 · G. Carrera

10 · M. Oyarzabal

14 · T. Kubo

Deportivo La Coruna

4-2-3-1

13 L. Roman

23 X. Navarro

20 J. Gimenez

22 B. Ede

12 G. Quagliata

8 D. Villares Yanez

21 M. Soriano

11 D. Mella

19 Cruz Luismi

10 Y. Hernandez

32 B. Nsongo

Coach · Antonio Hidalgo

Substitutes

25 · A. Fernandez

15 · M. Loureiro

2 · A. Altimira

17 · Angelino

4 · L. Noubi

14 · R. Rodriguez

16 · L. Amatucci

37 · N. Carrillo

18 · J. Asp

24 · A. Traore

31 · M. Ochoa

33 · K. Sanchez

Our number · real sociedad winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

50% The market55%

Us50%

~~Market~~55%

We make Real Sociedad a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real sociedad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Sociedad win	50%	55%	−5
Draw	25%	25%	0
Deportivo La Coruna win	25%	20%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Real Sociedad or draw	75%	80%	−5
Real Sociedad clean sheet	35%	–	–
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.2 7.2 3.9 1 11.0 11.7 6.1 2.2 2 8.9 9.2 4.9 3 4.9 5.0 2.6 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Sociedad down, Deportivo La Coruna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,973 La Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Real Sociedad at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo La Coruna away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Real Sociedad, 1.06 for Deportivo La Coruna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in La Liga

REAL SOCIEDAD

LWDWLW1–4 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–2

DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA

DWWDLD1–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
4	Real Betis	7	+2	16
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
6	Alaves	8	+4	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	−4	10
9	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
10	Villarreal	8	0	8
11	Espanyol	8	0	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
13	Getafe	8	−6	8
14	Osasuna	7	−7	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	+2	7
16	Racing Santander	7	−10	7
17	Levante	6	−4	5
18	Elche	7	−6	5
19	Malaga	8	−9	4
20	Valencia	7	−9	4