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Real Madrid v Villarreal

Real Madrid

1–0Full time

Villarreal

La Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal REAL MADRID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Madrid win~~63%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.204

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.132

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Madrid win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Madrid 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–18
1′KICK-OFF Real Madrid v Villarreal
2′Little has changed for our model: Real Madrid 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–18
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Renato Veiga · Villarreal
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 63% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 63% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 63% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 63% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 52% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 52% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Real Madrid win: 63% at kick-off, 63% now
45′HALF-TIME Real Madrid 0–0 Villarreal
45′SECOND HALF Real Madrid 0–0 Villarreal
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Madrid · On: Marc Cucurella · Off: Álvaro Fernández Carreras
51′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Real Madrid · On: Vinícius · Off: Trent Alexander-Arnold
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Villarreal · On: Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Off: Santi Comesaña
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Villarreal · On: Carlos Romero · Off: Juan Foyth
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal · Yan Diomande
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Villarreal · On: Gerard Moreno · Off: Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Villarreal · On: Georges Mikautadze · Off: Sergi Cardona Bermúdez
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix · Real Madrid
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Real Madrid 2–0 Villarreal · Yan Diomande
70′⚽ GOAL · 71' Real Madrid 2–0 Villarreal · Vinícius
72′🟥 RED CARD · 72' Real Madrid
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Vinícius · Real Madrid
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Madrid · On: Eduardo Camavinga · Off: Arda Güler
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Ibrahima Konaté · Real Madrid
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Antonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Pau Navarro · Villarreal
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Real Madrid · On: Denzel Dumfries · Off: Yan Diomande
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Villarreal · On: Nizar El Jmili · Off: Alberto Moleiro
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Aurelien Tchouameni · Real Madrid
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid
FTFULL TIME Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal
FTReal Madrid 1–0 Villarreal · Real Madrid win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Real Madrid win63%

Draw19%

Villarreal win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ipswich’s O’Shea and and Outtara stun Fulham with last-gasp comeback winThe Guardian · 2 hours ago · Real Madrid

Man Utd transfer blunder exposed as Real Madrid enquiry revealed for £25m starMirror Football · 4 hours ago · Manchester United, Real Madrid, Napoli

‘They compare themselves in everything’ – Inside the rocky partnership between Real Madrid forwards Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius JrGet French Football News · 4 hours ago · Real Madrid Gasperini: ‘Roma and Como same level, cannot predict Real Madrid choices’Football Italia · 5 hours ago · Como, Real Madrid

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

1 T. Courtois

12 T. Alexander-Arnold

16 I. Konate

22 A. Rudiger

18 A. Carreras

8 F. Valverde

14 A. Tchouameni

15 A. Guler

5 J. Bellingham

25 Y. Diomande

10 K. Mbappe

Coach · Jose Mourinho

Substitutes

13 · A. Lunin

26 · S. Mestre

24 · D. Dumfries

17 · M. Cucurella

6 · E. Camavinga

27 · T. Pitarch

20 · B. Silva

21 · B. Diaz

7 · Vinicius Junior

9 · Endrick

19 · C. Espi

Villarreal

4-3-3

25 P. Gulacsi

3 A. Freeman

6 P. Navarro

12 R. Veiga

23 S. Cardona

14 S. Comesana

8 J. Foyth

18 P. Gueye

11 I. Akhomach

22 A. Perez

10 A. Moleiro

Coach · Inigo Perez

Substitutes

1 · Luiz Junior

2 · L. Costa

20 · C. Romero

15 · S. Mourino

5 · A. Diatta

24 · N. Saliba

16 · C. Macia

7 · G. Moreno

9 · G. Mikautadze

27 · N. El Jmili

21 · T. Oluwaseyi

28 · J. Gaitan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

1 T. Courtois

12 T. Alexander-Arnold

16 I. Konate

22 A. Rudiger

18 A. Carreras

8 F. Valverde

14 A. Tchouameni

15 A. Guler

5 J. Bellingham

25 Y. Diomande

10 K. Mbappe

Coach · Jose Mourinho

Substitutes

13 · A. Lunin

26 · S. Mestre

24 · D. Dumfries

17 · M. Cucurella

6 · E. Camavinga

27 · T. Pitarch

20 · B. Silva

21 · B. Diaz

7 · Vinicius Junior

9 · Endrick

19 · C. Espi

Villarreal

4-3-3

25 P. Gulacsi

3 A. Freeman

6 P. Navarro

12 R. Veiga

23 S. Cardona

14 S. Comesana

8 J. Foyth

18 P. Gueye

11 I. Akhomach

22 A. Perez

10 A. Moleiro

Coach · Inigo Perez

Substitutes

1 · Luiz Junior

2 · L. Costa

20 · C. Romero

15 · S. Mourino

5 · A. Diatta

24 · N. Saliba

16 · C. Macia

7 · G. Moreno

9 · G. Mikautadze

27 · N. El Jmili

21 · T. Oluwaseyi

28 · J. Gaitan

Our number · real madrid winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

63% The market70%

Us63%

~~Market~~70%

We make Real Madrid a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real madrid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 69% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Madrid win	63%	70%	−7
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Villarreal win	18%	13%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Both teams to score	62%	65%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	89%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Real Madrid or draw	82%	87%	−5
Real Madrid clean sheet	31%	–	–
Villarreal clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.2 3.5 2.1 1 7.0 8.3 4.8 2 8.2 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 6.4 7.3 4.3 4 3.7 4.3 2.5 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Madrid down, Villarreal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,970 La Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Madrid at home: 3.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Villarreal away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for Real Madrid, 1.17 for Villarreal. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIL 0–2 REA · REA 3–1 VIL · VIL 1–2 REA · REA 2–0 VIL

Form · last six in La Liga

REAL MADRID

WWLWWL4–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

VILLARREAL

DLLLWW2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	−4	10
9	Villarreal	7	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Espanyol	8	0	8
12	Getafe	7	−3	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Osasuna	7	−7	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	+2	7
16	Racing Santander	7	−10	7
17	Levante	6	−4	5
18	Elche	7	−6	5
19	Malaga	8	−9	4
20	Valencia	7	−9	4