Real Madrid v Sevilla prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla REAL MADRID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Madrid win~~72%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.116

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.085

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Madrid win at 72%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Madrid was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–11
1′KICK-OFF Real Madrid v Sevilla
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Dean Huijsen · Real Madrid
26′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Felix Correia · Sevilla
29′We published Real Madrid at 72%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Real Madrid 1–0 Sevilla
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Real Madrid win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
31′Real Madrid ahead on 30′ through Arda Güler. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–3
37′We published Real Madrid at 72%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
37′Kylian Mbappé scores for Real Madrid on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Real Madrid win: 72% at kick-off, 97% now
45′SECOND HALF Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sevilla · On: Chidera Ejuke · Off: Rubén Vargas
49′HALF-TIME Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sevilla · On: Lucas Stassin · Off: Robbie Ure
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sevilla · On: Manuel Bueno Sebastián · Off: Peque Fernández
62′We published Real Madrid at 72%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Real Madrid 3–0 Sevilla
64′63′: Kylian Mbappé on the scoresheet for Real Madrid, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez · Sevilla
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Real Madrid · On: Brahim Díaz · Off: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Madrid · On: Bernardo Silva · Off: Jude Bellingham
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sevilla · On: José Ángel Carmona · Off: Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sevilla · On: Alfonso González Martínez · Off: Felix Correia
75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Marc Cucurella · Real Madrid
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Real Madrid · On: Eduardo Camavinga · Off: Arda Güler
80′Sevilla pull one back on 80′ through Manuel Bueno Sebastián. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Real Madrid 3–1 Sevilla · Manuel Bueno Sebastián
81′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla
83′Yan Diomande scores for Real Madrid on 82′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Madrid · On: Carlos Espí · Off: Kylian Mbappé
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Madrid · On: Éder Militão · Off: Federico Valverde
94′Full time, 4–1. We called Real Madrid at 72% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla
FTReal Madrid 4–1 Sevilla · Real Madrid win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Madrid are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Madrid 72%, draw 17%, Sevilla 11%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Real Madrid v SevillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Madrid win72%

Draw17%

Sevilla win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueSantiago Bernabéu Stadium

RefereeMateo Busquets Ferrer

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Madrid

Sevilla

4Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 12 Oct · La Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	+1	14

In the news

from the pressAll ›

I spent a year at Middlesbrough - now I’ve just scored in the Champions League against Real MadridFootball League World · 18 Oct 19:30 · Middlesbrough, Real Madrid

Birmingham City could revive move for ex-Real Madrid player — this is how much he may costFootball League World · 18 Oct 16:30 · Birmingham, Real Madrid

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

1 T. Courtois

8 F. Valverde

16 I. Konate

4 D. Huijsen

17 M. Cucurella

15 A. Guler

14 A. Tchouameni

9 Endrick

5 J. Bellingham

25 Y. Diomande

10 K. Mbappe

Coach · Jose Mourinho

Substitutes

13 · A. Lunin

31 · J. Navarro Jimenez

22 · A. Rudiger

24 · D. Dumfries

3 · Eder Militao

18 · A. Carreras

12 · T. Alexander-Arnold

6 · E. Camavinga

27 · T. Pitarch

20 · B. Silva

21 · B. Diaz

19 · C. Espi

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

1 O. Vlachodimos

2 J. Iglesias

5 Castrin

4 K. Salas

17 G. Suazo

6 L. Agoume

24 Y. Fofana

11 R. Vargas

10 Peque

20 F. Correia

9 R. Ure

Coach · Luis Garcia Plaza

Substitutes

13 · Fran

33 · R. Romero

15 · F. Cardoso

12 · A. Sangante

22 · J. A. Carmona

3 · J. Diaz

14 · M. Bueno

27 · N. Guillen

29 · J. Cruz

21 · C. Ejuke

19 · L. Stassin

7 · A. Gonzalez

Our number · real madrid winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 17:23 · locked at kick-off

72% The market76%

Us72%

~~Market~~76%

We make Real Madrid a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Madrid v Sevilla~~2.44 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 14~~4 v 5

~~The market · Real Madrid win~~76% · ours 72%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Madrid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Madrid win	72%	76%	−4
Draw	17%	15%	+2
Sevilla win	11%	9%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Real Madrid or draw	89%	91%	−2
Real Madrid clean sheet	44%	–	–
Sevilla clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 4.1 3.1 1 9.3 7.9 3.2 2 11.3 9.2 3.8 3 9.2 7.5 3.1 4 5.6 4.6 5 2.8 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Madrid down, Sevilla across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,983 La Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Madrid at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sevilla away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for Real Madrid, 0.82 for Sevilla. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEV 0–1 REA · REA 2–0 SEV · SEV 0–2 REA · REA 4–2 SEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug

REAL MADRID

WLWWLW4–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

SEVILLA

LDWWLD1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Betis	9	+2	19
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
9	Osasuna	9	−8	11
10	Athletic Club	7	+1	9
11	Villarreal	9	0	9
12	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
13	Espanyol	9	−1	8
14	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
15	Getafe	8	−6	8
16	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	8	−9	4