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Real Betis v Osasuna

Real Betis
5–2Full time
Osasuna

La Liga · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio de la Cartuja

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Real Betis 5–2 Osasuna REAL BETIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Real Betis win55%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.299
The market’s Brier score0.200

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Betis win at 55%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Real Betis 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
  3. 11′Real Betis ahead on 10′ through Isco. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–6
  4. 13′Real Betis ahead on 10′ through Isco. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–6
  5. 14′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–6
  6. 15′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–6
  7. 21′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
  8. 27′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
  9. 30′Abde Ezzalzouli scores for Real Betis on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  10. 31′Abde Ezzalzouli scores for Real Betis on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  11. 34′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  12. 36′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 48′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–0–0
  14. 50′48′ and it is 3–1: Diego Llorente on the scoresheet for Real Betis. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  15. 54′Osasuna ahead on 51′ through Ante Budimir. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  16. 57′Raul García scores for Osasuna on 56′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 83–15–3
  17. 60′Raul García scores for Osasuna on 56′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 83–14–2
  18. 64′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
  19. 65′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
  20. 68′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 98–1–0
  21. 75′67′ and it is 4–2: Isco on the scoresheet for Real Betis. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  22. 80′We said Real Betis at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  23. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  24. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
  25. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  26. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Valentin Rosier · Osasuna
  27. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
  28. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  29. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
  30. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  31. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
  32. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  33. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Real Betis · On: José Antonio Morante Antúnez · Off: Abde Ezzalzouli Corrected
  34. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  35. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
  36. 95′Real Betis ahead on 90′ through José Antonio Morante Antúnez. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  37. 95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Real Betis 5–2 Osasuna · Isco
  38. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
  39. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  40. 95′⚽ GOAL · 96' Real Betis 5–2 Osasuna · José Antonio Morante Antúnez
  41. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Alejandro Catena · Osasuna
  42. 97′Real Betis ahead on 90′ through José Antonio Morante Antúnez. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  43. FTFULL TIME Real Betis 5–2 Osasuna
  44. FTReal Betis 5–2 Osasuna · Real Betis win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Betis win55%
Draw24%
Osasuna win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueEstadio de la Cartuja

RefereeCarlos Muñiz Muñoz

Line-ups

Real Betis

4-2-3-1

Osasuna

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Betis

Osasuna

21Days since last match22
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Real Betis7+216
14Osasuna7−78

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Real Betis

4-2-3-1

1 A. Valles

2 H. Bellerin

3 D. Llorente

4 Natan

11 F. Garcia

8 P. Fornals

21 M. Roca

17 R. Riquelme

22 Isco

10 A. Ezzalzouli

9 C. Hernandez

Coach · Manuel Pellegrini

Substitutes

13 · D. Conde

5 · M. Bartra

16 · V. Gomez

12 · A. Ortiz

18 · N. Deossa

25 · D. Ceballos

15 · A. Fidalgo

20 · G. Lo Celso

6 · F. Bernal

7 · Antony

19 · T. Parrott

27 · J. Morante

Osasuna

4-4-2

13 A. Fernandez

27 I. Arguibide

24 A. Catena

35 U. Santos

23 A. Bretones

14 R. Garcia

7 J. Moncayola

6 L. Torro

16 M. Gomez

17 A. Budimir

9 R. Garcia

Coach · Jagoba Arrasate

Substitutes

1 · S. Herrera

32 · M. Bermejo

15 · D. Rico

19 · V. Rosier

22 · F. Boyomo

48 · R. Yeboah

8 · I. Munoz

29 · A. Osambela

26 · M. Echegoyen

21 · J. Dubasin

Our number · real betis winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
55% The market64%
Us55%
Market64%

We make Real Betis a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1711 OCT 15:15
Our probability · real betis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Real Betis win55%64%−8
Draw24%21%+3
Osasuna win21%15%+5
Over 2.5 goals50%58%−8
Both teams to score50%53%−3
Over 1.5 goals74%79%−5
Over 3.5 goals28%36%−8
Real Betis or draw79%85%−5
Real Betis clean sheet39%––
Osasuna clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%
0123450 7.2 6.5 3.1 1 11.9 11.4 5.3 2 10.3 9.6 4.5 3 5.9 5.5 2.6 4 2.6 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Real Betis down, Osasuna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsOSA 1–1 REA · REA 2–0 OSA · REA 1–1 OSA · OSA 1–2 REA

Form · last six in La Liga

REAL BETIS

WLWWWD1–0 · 2–5 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

OSASUNA

WWLLLD2–1 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Barcelona8+2724
2Atletico Madrid8+1019
3Real Madrid8+1118
4Real Betis7+216
5Sevilla7+113
6Alaves8+411
7Deportivo La Coruna7+210
8Real Sociedad7−410
9Athletic Club6+18
10Villarreal808
11Espanyol808
12Rayo Vallecano7−58
13Getafe8−68
14Osasuna7−78
15Celta Vigo7+27
16Racing Santander7−107
17Levante6−45
18Elche7−65
19Malaga8−94
20Valencia7−94

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.