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Real Betis v Barcelona

Real Betis

2–5Full time

Barcelona

La Liga · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio de la Cartuja

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Real Betis 2–5 Barcelona BARCELONA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barcelona win~~52%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.346

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.173

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barcelona win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barcelona 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 26–22–52
1′KICK-OFF Real Betis v Barcelona
9′We said Barcelona at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 11–15–74
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Real Betis 0–1 Barcelona
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 74% now
11′10′: Lamine Yamal on the scoresheet for Barcelona, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–15–74
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Fermín López · Barcelona
24′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Héctor Bellerín · Real Betis
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Real Betis 1–1 Barcelona
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 47% now
28′Real Betis level it on 27′ through Diego Valentín Gómez. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–28–47
41′We said Barcelona at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 7–17–75
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Real Betis 1–2 Barcelona
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
42′Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante scores for Barcelona on 41′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–17–75
43′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 24–33–43
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Real Betis 2–2 Barcelona
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′43′: Giovani Lo Celso on the scoresheet for Real Betis, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 24–34–42
45′SECOND HALF Real Betis 1–2 Barcelona
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Barcelona · On: Eric García · Off: Gerard Martín
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Betis · On: Nelson Deossa · Off: Dani Ceballos
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Manuel Luis Pellegrini Ripamonti · Real Betis
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' Real Betis
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
52′52′: Gabriel Jesus on the scoresheet for Barcelona, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
52′HALF-TIME Real Betis 1–2 Barcelona
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Real Betis 1–3 Barcelona · Gabriel Jesus
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
53′We said Barcelona at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
53′51′: Gabriel Jesus on the scoresheet for Barcelona. 2–3 · 6–17–77
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Real Betis 2–3 Barcelona
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
54′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 5–17–77
54′Abde Ezzalzouli scores for Real Betis on 53′. 1–3 · 1–4–95
55′Real Betis are down to ten from 54′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–3 · 1–4–95
55′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Facundo Bernal · Real Betis
56′We said Barcelona at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Real Betis
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Real Betis 2–3 Barcelona · Abde Ezzalzouli
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Lamine Yamal · Barcelona
62′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 1–3–96
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Diego Llorente · Real Betis
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Real Betis 2–4 Barcelona
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Barcelona win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
63′Eric García scores for Barcelona on 63′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–3–96
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Barcelona · On: Daniel Olmo Carvajal · Off: Fermín López
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Barcelona · On: Anthony Gordon · Off: Karim Adeyemi
64′Eric García scores for Barcelona on 62′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–3–96
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Real Betis · On: Troy Parrott · Off: Cucho Hernández
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Real Betis · On: Rodrigo Riquelme · Off: Giovani Lo Celso
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Barcelona · On: Raphael Dias Belloli · Off: Lamine Yamal
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Real Betis · On: Álvaro Fidalgo · Off: Pablo Fornals
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Real Betis · On: Ángel Ortiz · Off: Héctor Bellerín
81′We said Barcelona at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–5 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Barcelona · On: Pablo Martín Páez Gavira · Off: Gabriel Jesus
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Real Betis 2–5 Barcelona
82′7 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
83′81′: Daniel Olmo Carvajal on the scoresheet for Barcelona, making it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
93′2–5 at the end. Our 52% on Barcelona comes in. 2–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Real Betis 2–5 Barcelona
FTReal Betis 2–5 Barcelona · Barcelona win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barcelona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Betis 26%, draw 22%, Barcelona 52%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Real Betis v BarcelonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Betis win26%

Draw22%

Barcelona win52%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstadio de la Cartuja

RefereeRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Line-ups

Real Betis

4-2-3-1

Barcelona

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Betis

Barcelona

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

European football: Baena late strike for Atlético puts pressure on BarcelonaThe Guardian · 17 Oct 15:44 · Barcelona

Guardiola receives standing ovation on return to BarcelonaBBC Sport · 17 Oct 11:00 · Barcelona

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Betis

4-2-3-1

1 A. Valles

2 H. Bellerin

3 D. Llorente

16 V. Gomez

11 F. Garcia

6 F. Bernal

25 D. Ceballos

20 G. Lo Celso

8 P. Fornals

10 A. Ezzalzouli

9 C. Hernandez

Coach · Manuel Pellegrini

Substitutes

13 · D. Conde

5 · M. Bartra

4 · Natan

12 · A. Ortiz

22 · Isco

21 · M. Roca

18 · N. Deossa

15 · A. Fidalgo

7 · Antony

17 · R. Riquelme

19 · T. Parrott

27 · J. Morante

Barcelona

4-2-3-1

1 J. Garcia

23 J. Kounde

5 P. Cubarsi

18 G. Martin

12 X. Espart

16 Rodri

8 Pedri

10 Lamine Yamal

7 Fermin

14 K. Adeyemi

9 Gabriel Jesus

Coach · Hansi Flick

Substitutes

13 · W. Szczesny

25 · D. Livakovic

2 · J. Cancelo

24 · E. Garcia

3 · A. Balde

21 · F. de Jong

6 · Gavi

22 · M. Bernal

4 · B. Farinas

20 · D. Olmo

11 · Raphinha

17 · A. Gordon

Our number · barcelona winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market66%

Us52%

~~Market~~66%

We make Barcelona a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Betis v Barcelona~~1.35 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 24~~3 v 1

~~The market · Barcelona win~~66% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barcelona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 66% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Betis win	26%	16%	+10
Draw	22%	18%	+4
Barcelona win	52%	66%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	65%	78%	−13
Both teams to score	64%	71%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	85%	90%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	43%	60%	−17
Real Betis or draw	48%	34%	+14
Real Betis clean sheet	14%	–	–
Barcelona clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.8 6.9 7.0 4.6 2.3 1 4.7 9.6 9.3 6.2 3.1 2 3.3 6.4 6.3 4.2 2.1 3 2.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Betis down, Barcelona across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,979 La Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Betis at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Barcelona away: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Real Betis, 1.99 for Barcelona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAR 3–1 REA · REA 3–5 BAR · BAR 1–1 REA · BAR 5–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug

REAL BETIS

LWWWDW2–5 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 5–2

BARCELONA

WWWWWW5–2 · 5–0 · 4–2 · 7–2 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	+5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
9	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Villarreal	8	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Getafe	8	−6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	−10	8
16	Osasuna	8	−10	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	8	−6	6
19	Valencia	8	−9	5
20	Malaga	8	−9	4