Rayo Vallecano v Elche prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Rayo Vallecano 0–3 Elche RAYO VALLECANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rayo Vallecano win~~48%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.983

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rayo Vallecano win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Rayo Vallecano 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–26
2′KICK-OFF Rayo Vallecano v Elche
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Javier Morcillo Rodrigálvarez · Elche
23′We said Rayo Vallecano at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Rayo Vallecano 0–1 Elche
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Rayo Vallecano win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Elche win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Rayo Vallecano win 44%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Rayo Vallecano win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
25′Elche ahead on 23′ through Federico Redondo Solari. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–25–57
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 16–25–58
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Gonzalo Villar · Elche
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Federico Redondo Solari · Elche
35′We said Rayo Vallecano at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
35′PENALTY · 34' Elche
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Pathé Ciss · Rayo Vallecano
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Rayo Vallecano 0–2 Elche
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Rayo Vallecano win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
37′Fernando Niño Rodríguez scores for Elche on 36′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–86
40′PENALTY MISSED · 39' Pathé Ciss · Rayo Vallecano
45′SECOND HALF Rayo Vallecano 0–2 Elche
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Elche · On: Facundo Buonanotte · Off: Gonzalo Villar
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rayo Vallecano · On: Georgiy Tsitaishvili · Off: Jorge De Frutos
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rayo Vallecano · On: Alexandre Zurawski · Off: Sergio Camello
52′HALF-TIME Rayo Vallecano 0–2 Elche
57′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Adrià Pedrosa · Rayo Vallecano
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Rayo Vallecano · On: Jozhua Vertrouwd · Off: Adrià Pedrosa
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Rayo Vallecano · On: Isi Palazón · Off: Pedro Díaz
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Elche · On: Abiel Alessio Osorio · Off: Fernando Niño Rodríguez
68′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–99
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Rayo Vallecano 0–3 Elche
69′68′: Germán Valera on the scoresheet for Elche, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Elche · On: Martim Neto · Off: Thomas Lemar
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Elche · On: Tete Morente · Off: Lucas Cepeda
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rayo Vallecano · On: Gnangoro Bouare · Off: Ivan Balliu
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Elche · On: Pedro Bigas · Off: Federico Redondo Solari
94′0–3 at the end. Our 48% on Rayo Vallecano misses, and the record keeps it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Rayo Vallecano 0–3 Elche
FTRayo Vallecano 0–3 Elche · Rayo Vallecano win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rayo Vallecano 48%, draw 27%, Elche 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Rayo Vallecano v ElcheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rayo Vallecano win48%

Draw27%

Elche win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadio de Vallecas

RefereeMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Line-ups

Rayo Vallecano

4-3-3

Elche

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rayo Vallecano

Elche

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · La Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	−5	9
18	Elche	9	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rayo Vallecano

4-3-3

25 E. Audero

20 I. Balliu

24 F. Lejeune

15 Mujaid Sadick

17 Adrià Pedrosa

4 Pedro Díaz

6 P. Ciss

8 Unai López

19 Jorge de Frutos

10 Sergio Camello

18 Álvaro García

Coach · Beñat San José

Substitutes

37 · Rayane Belid

34 · Iván Alonso Martín

36 · G. Bouare

22 · Pelayo Fernández

3 · M. Kumbulla

30 · Adrián Molina

7 · Isi Palazón

21 · Fran Pérez

14 · G. Tsitaishvili

23 · Óscar Valentín

33 · J. Vertrouwd

9 · Alemão

Elche

4-3-3

1 M. Dituro

2 Buba Sangaré

5 F. Redondo

23 Víctor Chust

3 R. Revivo

12 Gonzalo Villar

47 J. Morcillo

18 T. Lemar

21 L. Cepeda

14 Fer Niño

11 Germán Valera

Coach · M. Anselmi

Substitutes

6 · Bigas

10 · F. Buonanotte

16 · Martim Neto

19 · G. Diangana

17 · Josan

13 · Alejandro Iturbe

15 · K. Lomónaco

20 · Tete Morente

24 · A. Osorio

9 · E. Ponce

22 · Rubén Sánchez

26 · Matia Barzic Gutiérrez

Our number · rayo vallecano winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make Rayo Vallecano a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rayo Vallecano v Elche~~1.50 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 7~~14 v 18

~~The market · Rayo Vallecano win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rayo Vallecano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayo Vallecano win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Elche win	26%	21%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Rayo Vallecano or draw	74%	79%	−5
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	36%	–	–
Elche clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.4 7.9 4.2 1 11.7 12.5 6.2 2.2 2 9.0 9.1 4.7 3 4.5 4.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayo Vallecano down, Elche across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,990 La Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rayo Vallecano at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Elche away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Rayo Vallecano, 1.03 for Elche. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RAY 1–0 ELC · ELC 4–0 RAY · ELC 4–0 RAY · RAY 2–1 ELC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 31 Aug

RAYO VALLECANO

LWLWDD2–5 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

ELCHE

LDLWDD2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Levante	9	−2	10
12	Villarreal	9	0	9
13	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	−5	9
15	Getafe	9	−6	9
16	Espanyol	9	−1	8
17	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5