Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rayo VallecanoDrawCelta Vigo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Rayo Vallecano 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rayo Vallecano 39%, draw 28%, Celta Vigo 33%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Rayo Vallecano v Celta VigoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rayo Vallecano win39%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCampo de Futbol de Vallecas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rayo Vallecano

Celta Vigo

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

How to watch Celtic vs Celta Vigo – TV channel, live stream and kick-off timeMirror Football · 22 Oct 17:00 · Celtic, Celta Vigo

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rayo vallecano winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Rayo Vallecano a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo~~1.27 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~17 v 9

~~The market · Rayo Vallecano win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rayo Vallecano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayo Vallecano win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Celta Vigo win	33%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Rayo Vallecano or draw	67%	70%	−3
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	32%	–	–
Celta Vigo clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.3 9.9 5.9 2.3 1 10.9 13.2 7.4 2.9 2 7.1 8.1 4.7 3 3.0 3.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayo Vallecano down, Celta Vigo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 La Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Celta Vigo away: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Rayo Vallecano, 1.16 for Celta Vigo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CEL 3–0 RAY · RAY 1–1 CEL · CEL 1–2 RAY · RAY 2–1 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 3 Sept

RAYO VALLECANO

WLWDDL3–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

CELTA VIGO

DDDWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	+12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Villarreal	10	+1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	0	11
11	Osasuna	9	−8	11
12	Racing Santander	10	−11	11
13	Levante	9	−2	10
14	Elche	10	−3	10
15	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
16	Getafe	9	−6	9
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
18	Espanyol	10	−2	8
19	Valencia	10	−10	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5