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Model 1.1

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Racing Santander v Valencia

Racing Santander
2–2Full time
Valencia

La Liga · SUN 11 OCT · El Sardinero

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30
Racing Santander 2–2 Valencia RACING SANTANDER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Racing Santander win39%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.858
The market’s Brier score0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Racing Santander win at 39%.
  2. 1′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–61
  3. 4′Daniel Raba Antolín scores for Valencia on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–20–61
  4. 26′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  5. 32′32′ and it is 1–1: Yassir Zabiri on the scoresheet for Racing Santander. 1–1 · 35–32–33
  6. 35′Little has changed for our model: Racing Santander 39% before kick-off, 35% now. 1–1 · 35–33–33
  7. 45′8.0 shots for Racing Santander, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 32–37–31
  8. 45′32′ and it is 1–1: Yassir Zabiri on the scoresheet for Racing Santander. 1–1 · 32–37–31
  9. 45′8.0 shots for Racing Santander, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 32–37–31
  10. 45′Little has changed for our model: Racing Santander 39% before kick-off, 32% now. 1–1 · 32–37–31
  11. 47′Racing Santander ahead on 47′ through Iván Martín. 2–1. 2–1 · 70–22–9
  12. 50′We said Racing Santander at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–21–8
  13. 52′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 71–21–8
  14. 62′We said Racing Santander at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
  15. 65′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 2–2 · 25–51–24
  16. 67′David Otorbi Ejededawe scores for Valencia on 65′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 24–54–23
  17. 69′David Otorbi Ejededawe scores for Valencia on 65′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 22–56–22
  18. 69′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 22–56–22
  19. 72′14.0 shots for Racing Santander, 7.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 20–60–20
  20. 74′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–63–18
  21. 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 17–66–17
  22. 80′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–74–13
  23. 85′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–85–7
  24. 87′16.0 shots for Racing Santander, 9.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 5–91–5
  25. 90′We said Racing Santander at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  26. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Iván Martín · Racing Santander
  27. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Racing Santander win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
  28. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Racing Santander win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
  29. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Racing Santander win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
  30. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Racing Santander win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
  31. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Racing Santander win 11%)
  32. FTFULL TIME Racing Santander 2–2 Valencia
  33. FTRacing Santander 2–2 Valencia · Racing Santander win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Racing Santander win39%
Draw24%
Valencia win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEl Sardinero

RefereeLuis Bestard Servera

Line-ups

Racing Santander

4-1-4-1

Valencia

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Racing Santander

Valencia

22Days since last match21
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
16Racing Santander7−107
20Valencia7−94

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Racing Santander

4-1-4-1

13 J. Agirrezabala

2 A. Mantilla

5 P. Ramon

24 J. Belocian

17 J. Salinas

18 M. Prati

20 S. Canales

23 I. Martin

8 A. Almeida

10 I. Vicente

21 Y. Zabiri

Coach · Jose Lopez

Substitutes

31 · L. Gomez Rodriguez

16 · F. Gonzalez

3 · A. Martin

4 · Manu Hernando

6 · I. Sainz-Maza

14 · M. Gueye

12 · A. Villalibre

7 · G. Guliashvili

9 · J. Arana

11 · A. Martin

19 · I. Luque

15 · P. Garcia

Valencia

5-4-1

1 S. Dimitrievski

24 P. Maffeo

4 M. Diakhaby

18 Pepelu

12 J. De Haas

14 J. Gaya

19 D. Raba

23 F. Ugrinic

2 G. Rodriguez

8 J. Guerra

9 H. Duro

Coach · Javier Aguirre

Substitutes

25 · K. van Oevelen

5 · C. Tarrega

21 · J. Vazquez

22 · A. Martinez

36 · I. Cordoba

33 · A. Mayol

15 · A. Dieng

10 · H. Elliott

39 · R. Sato

7 · A. Danjuma

27 · D. Otorbi

37 · A. Blazquez

Our number · racing santander winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
39% The market43%
Us39%
Market43%

We make Racing Santander a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:1711 OCT 17:24
Our probability · racing santander win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Racing Santander win39%43%−4
Draw24%27%−3
Valencia win37%30%+7
Over 2.5 goals57%57%0
Both teams to score60%61%−1
Over 1.5 goals80%78%+2
Over 3.5 goals35%37%−2
Racing Santander or draw63%70%−7
Racing Santander clean sheet23%––
Valencia clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 5.3 7.4 5.5 2.7 1 7.6 11.2 8.1 4.0 2 5.8 8.3 6.1 3.0 3 3.0 4.3 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Santander down, Valencia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in La Liga

RACING SANTANDER

LWLWLL0–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–7 · 0–5

VALENCIA

LLLLWL0–1 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Barcelona8+2724
2Atletico Madrid8+1019
3Real Madrid8+1118
4Real Betis7+216
5Sevilla7+113
6Alaves8+411
7Deportivo La Coruna7+210
8Real Sociedad7−410
9Athletic Club6+18
10Villarreal808
11Espanyol808
12Rayo Vallecano7−58
13Getafe8−68
14Osasuna7−78
15Celta Vigo7+27
16Racing Santander7−107
17Levante6−45
18Elche7−65
19Malaga8−94
20Valencia7−94

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.