

Osasuna v Racing Santander
Osasuna
Racing SantanderLa Liga · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio El Sadar
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Osasuna win at 55%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Osasuna 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
- 1′KICK-OFF Osasuna v Racing Santander
- 3′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
- 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
- 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
- 4′4′: Jonathan Dubasin on the scoresheet for Osasuna, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
- 5′GOAL DISALLOWED · 5' Osasuna
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
- 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
- 8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Alvaro Mantilla · Racing Santander
- 9′9′: Ante Budimir on the scoresheet for Osasuna, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
- 29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Valentin Rosier · Osasuna
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–15–7
- 33′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
- 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
- 34′GOAL DISALLOWED · 34' Osasuna
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
- 45′SECOND HALF Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
- 49′HALF-TIME Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
- 52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Racing Santander · On: Andrés Martín · Off: André Almeida Corrected
- 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Jorge Salinas Viadero · Racing Santander
- 54′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Ante Budimir · Osasuna
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Osasuna · On: Asier Osambela · Off: Moi Gómez Corrected
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Osasuna · On: Lucas Torró · Off: Iker Muñoz Cameros Corrected
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Racing Santander · On: Pablo García · Off: Sergio Canales Corrected
- 72′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Osasuna · On: Raul Moro · Off: Jonathan Dubasin Corrected
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Osasuna · On: Íñigo Arguibide · Off: Valentin Rosier Corrected
- 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Iván Martín · Racing Santander
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Racing Santander · On: Aarón Martin Caricol · Off: Jorge Salinas Viadero Corrected
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Racing Santander · On: Asier Villalibre · Off: Iván Martín Corrected
- 87′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
- 88′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander
- 89′Osasuna ahead on 88′ through Asier Osambela. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Osasuna · On: Raul García · Off: Rubén García Corrected
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Racing Santander · On: Giorgi Guliashvili · Off: Yassir Zabiri Corrected
- 93′2–0 at the end. Our 55% on Osasuna comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander
- FTOsasuna 2–0 Racing Santander · Osasuna win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Osasuna are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Osasuna 55%, draw 22%, Racing Santander 23%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Osasuna win55%
Racing Santander win23%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 9
VenueEstadio El Sadar
RefereeJuan Martinez Munuera
Match timeline
All events
OsasunaMIN
Racing SantanderEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Osasuna
4-3-3
Racing Santander
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Osasuna
Racing Santander
Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga
Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Osasuna
4-3-3
13 A. Fernandez
19 V. Rosier
24 A. Catena
22 F. Boyomo
23 A. Bretones
7 J. Moncayola
8 I. Munoz
16 M. Gomez
14 R. Garcia
17 A. Budimir
21 J. Dubasin
Coach · Jagoba Arrasate
Substitutes
31 · Rafa
1 · S. Herrera
15 · D. Rico
35 · U. Santos
48 · R. Yeboah
6 · L. Torro
29 · A. Osambela
26 · M. Echegoyen
9 · R. Garcia
11 · K. Barja
18 · R. Moro
27 · I. Arguibide
Racing Santander
4-2-3-1
13 J. Agirrezabala
2 A. Mantilla
5 P. Ramon
24 J. Belocian
17 J. Salinas
23 I. Martin
18 M. Prati
20 S. Canales
8 A. Almeida
10 I. Vicente
21 Y. Zabiri
Coach · Jose Lopez
Substitutes
31 · L. Gomez Rodriguez
16 · F. Gonzalez
22 · Pedro Felipe
3 · A. Martin
6 · I. Sainz-Maza
14 · M. Gueye
12 · A. Villalibre
7 · G. Guliashvili
9 · J. Arana
11 · A. Martin
19 · I. Luque
15 · P. Garcia
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Osasuna
4-3-3
13 A. Fernandez
19 V. Rosier
24 A. Catena
22 F. Boyomo
23 A. Bretones
7 J. Moncayola
8 I. Munoz
16 M. Gomez
14 R. Garcia
17 A. Budimir
21 J. Dubasin
Coach · Jagoba Arrasate
Substitutes
31 · Rafa
1 · S. Herrera
15 · D. Rico
35 · U. Santos
48 · R. Yeboah
6 · L. Torro
29 · A. Osambela
26 · M. Echegoyen
9 · R. Garcia
11 · K. Barja
18 · R. Moro
27 · I. Arguibide
Racing Santander
4-2-3-1
13 J. Agirrezabala
2 A. Mantilla
5 P. Ramon
24 J. Belocian
17 J. Salinas
23 I. Martin
18 M. Prati
20 S. Canales
8 A. Almeida
10 I. Vicente
21 Y. Zabiri
Coach · Jose Lopez
Substitutes
31 · L. Gomez Rodriguez
16 · F. Gonzalez
22 · Pedro Felipe
3 · A. Martin
6 · I. Sainz-Maza
14 · M. Gueye
12 · A. Villalibre
7 · G. Guliashvili
9 · J. Arana
11 · A. Martin
19 · I. Luque
15 · P. Garcia
We make Osasuna a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 56%, 55% now. The market has gone from 49% to 48% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna win | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Racing Santander win | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 38% | +2 |
| Osasuna or draw | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 28 Aug
OSASUNA
RACING SANTANDER
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | +30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 9 | +2 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | −3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 8 | +2 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 9 | −1 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | −5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | −6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | −10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | −10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 8 | −4 | 7 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | −6 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | −9 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | −9 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Deportivo La Coruna
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
Levante
Elche
Valencia
Malaga