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Osasuna v Racing Santander

Osasuna
2–0Full time
Racing Santander

La Liga · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio El Sadar

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander OSASUNA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Osasuna win55%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.299
The market’s Brier score0.401

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Osasuna win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Osasuna 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Osasuna v Racing Santander
  4. 3′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 4′4′: Jonathan Dubasin on the scoresheet for Osasuna, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  8. 5′GOAL DISALLOWED · 5' Osasuna
  9. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
  10. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
  11. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
  12. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Alvaro Mantilla · Racing Santander
  13. 9′9′: Ante Budimir on the scoresheet for Osasuna, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  14. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Valentin Rosier · Osasuna
  15. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–15–7
  16. 33′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
  17. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander
  18. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
  19. 34′GOAL DISALLOWED · 34' Osasuna
  20. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
  21. 45′SECOND HALF Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
  22. 49′HALF-TIME Osasuna 1–0 Racing Santander
  23. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Racing Santander · On: Andrés Martín · Off: André Almeida Corrected
  24. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Jorge Salinas Viadero · Racing Santander
  25. 54′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  26. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Ante Budimir · Osasuna
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Osasuna · On: Asier Osambela · Off: Moi Gómez Corrected
  28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Osasuna · On: Lucas Torró · Off: Iker Muñoz Cameros Corrected
  29. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Racing Santander · On: Pablo García · Off: Sergio Canales Corrected
  30. 72′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  31. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  32. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Osasuna · On: Raul Moro · Off: Jonathan Dubasin Corrected
  33. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Osasuna · On: Íñigo Arguibide · Off: Valentin Rosier Corrected
  34. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Iván Martín · Racing Santander
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Racing Santander · On: Aarón Martin Caricol · Off: Jorge Salinas Viadero Corrected
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Racing Santander · On: Asier Villalibre · Off: Iván Martín Corrected
  37. 87′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  38. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Osasuna win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  39. 88′We said Osasuna at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  40. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander
  41. 89′Osasuna ahead on 88′ through Asier Osambela. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  42. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Osasuna · On: Raul García · Off: Rubén García Corrected
  43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Racing Santander · On: Giorgi Guliashvili · Off: Yassir Zabiri Corrected
  44. 93′2–0 at the end. Our 55% on Osasuna comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  45. FTFULL TIME Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander
  46. FTOsasuna 2–0 Racing Santander · Osasuna win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Osasuna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Osasuna 55%, draw 22%, Racing Santander 23%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Osasuna v Racing SantanderBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Osasuna win55%
Draw22%
Racing Santander win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstadio El Sadar

RefereeJuan Martinez Munuera

Line-ups

Osasuna

4-3-3

Racing Santander

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Osasuna

Racing Santander

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Racing Santander8−108
16Osasuna8−108

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Osasuna

4-3-3

13 A. Fernandez

19 V. Rosier

24 A. Catena

22 F. Boyomo

23 A. Bretones

7 J. Moncayola

8 I. Munoz

16 M. Gomez

14 R. Garcia

17 A. Budimir

21 J. Dubasin

Coach · Jagoba Arrasate

Substitutes

31 · Rafa

1 · S. Herrera

15 · D. Rico

35 · U. Santos

48 · R. Yeboah

6 · L. Torro

29 · A. Osambela

26 · M. Echegoyen

9 · R. Garcia

11 · K. Barja

18 · R. Moro

27 · I. Arguibide

Racing Santander

4-2-3-1

13 J. Agirrezabala

2 A. Mantilla

5 P. Ramon

24 J. Belocian

17 J. Salinas

23 I. Martin

18 M. Prati

20 S. Canales

8 A. Almeida

10 I. Vicente

21 Y. Zabiri

Coach · Jose Lopez

Substitutes

31 · L. Gomez Rodriguez

16 · F. Gonzalez

22 · Pedro Felipe

3 · A. Martin

6 · I. Sainz-Maza

14 · M. Gueye

12 · A. Villalibre

7 · G. Guliashvili

9 · J. Arana

11 · A. Martin

19 · I. Luque

15 · P. Garcia

Our number · osasuna winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market48%
Us55%
Market48%

We make Osasuna a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Osasuna v Racing Santander2.01 – 1.21
Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 28 AugW1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 8 v 816 v 15
The market · Osasuna win48% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 03:5818 OCT 12:36
Our probability · Osasuna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. The market has gone from 49% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Osasuna win55%48%+7
Draw22%26%−4
Racing Santander win23%26%−3
Over 2.5 goals62%58%+4
Both teams to score60%60%0
Over 1.5 goals83%79%+4
Over 3.5 goals40%38%+2
Osasuna or draw77%74%+3
Osasuna clean sheet30%––
Racing Santander clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.4 4.8 3.0 1 8.0 9.9 5.8 2.4 2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.4 6.3 3.8 4 2.8 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Osasuna down, Racing Santander across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 28 Aug

OSASUNA

WLLLDL1–0 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–5

RACING SANTANDER

WLWLLD3–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–7 · 0–5 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Barcelona9+3027
2Atletico Madrid9+1122
3Real Betis9+219
4Real Madrid8+1118
5Sevilla8+114
6Real Sociedad8−313
7Alaves8+411
8Deportivo La Coruna9+111
9Athletic Club7+19
10Villarreal909
11Celta Vigo8+28
12Espanyol9−18
13Rayo Vallecano7−58
14Getafe8−68
15Racing Santander8−108
16Osasuna8−108
17Levante8−47
18Elche9−67
19Valencia9−96
20Malaga8−94

The competition's standings before kick-off.