Malaga v Real Sociedad prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad REAL SOCIEDAD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Sociedad win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Sociedad win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Sociedad was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Malaga v Real Sociedad
3′We published Real Sociedad at 39%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 14–19–67
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Malaga 0–1 Real Sociedad
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
4′Takefusa Kubo scores for Real Sociedad on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–19–67
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
25′We published Real Sociedad at 39%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Malaga 0–2 Real Sociedad
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
27′26′: Orri Steinn Óskarsson on the scoresheet for Real Sociedad, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–90
27′We published Real Sociedad at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Jon Martin · Real Sociedad
45′SECOND HALF Malaga 0–2 Real Sociedad
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Malaga · On: Ramón Enríquez · Off: Izan Merino
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Malaga · On: Adam Aznou · Off: José Salinas
47′HALF-TIME Malaga 0–2 Real Sociedad
54′We published Real Sociedad at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
54′We published Real Sociedad at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–20–75
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Malaga 1–2 Real Sociedad
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, 75% now
55′Malaga pull one back on 54′ through Adrian Nino. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–19–75
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Malaga 1–3 Real Sociedad
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
60′Mikel Oyarzabal scores for Real Sociedad on 59′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Sociedad · On: Gonçalo Guedes · Off: Ander Barrenetxea
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Sociedad · On: Igor Zubeldia · Off: Hector Fort
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Mamadou Sarr · Real Sociedad
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Malaga · On: Dani Lorenzo · Off: Carlos Dotor
66′We published Real Sociedad at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
66′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 3–17–80
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Malaga 2–3 Real Sociedad
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, 80% now
67′66′: Ángel Recio Gutiérrez on the scoresheet for Malaga. 2–4 · 0–3–97
67′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–3–97
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Malaga 2–4 Real Sociedad
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, 97% now
69′Real Sociedad ahead on 67′ through Mikel Oyarzabal. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Malaga · On: Joaquín Muñoz · Off: David Larrubia
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Real Sociedad · On: Sergio Gómez · Off: Aihen Muñoz
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Real Sociedad · On: Job Ochieng · Off: Takefusa Kubo
73′We published Real Sociedad at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–5 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Real Sociedad win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
74′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
75′Gonçalo Guedes scores for Real Sociedad on 73′ — 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Sociedad · On: Alex Marchal García · Off: Orri Steinn Óskarsson
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Malaga · On: Carlos Puga · Off: Adrian Nino
FTFULL TIME Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad
FTMalaga 2–5 Real Sociedad · Real Sociedad win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Sociedad are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malaga 33%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 39%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Malaga v Real SociedadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Malaga win33%

Draw27%

Real Sociedad win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueLa Rosaleda

RefereeLuis Bestard Servera

Line-ups

Malaga

4-4-2

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malaga

Real Sociedad

9Days since last match3

Last match: 9 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
20	Malaga	8	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Malaga

4-4-2

1 A. Herrero

31 Rafita

20 F. Calero

15 A. Recio

12 J. Salinas

10 D. Larrubia

8 C. Dotor

23 I. Merino

18 P. Martinez

21 A. Nino

9 Chupe

Coach · Juan Funes

Substitutes

13 · C. Lopez

4 · E. Galilea

5 · A. Pastor

3 · C. Puga

39 · A. Aznou

2 · J. Cajuste

22 · D. Lorenzo

14 · R. Rodriguez

6 · R. Enriquez

7 · H. Abaida

11 · J. Munoz

17 · E. Jauregi

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

1 A. Remiro

22 H. Fort

6 J. Martin

19 M. Sarr

3 A. Munoz

14 T. Kubo

4 J. Gorrotxategi

18 C. Soler

7 A. Barrenetxea

10 M. Oyarzabal

9 O. Oskarsson

Coach · Pellegrino Matarazzo

Substitutes

13 · U. Marrero

5 · I. Zubeldia

17 · S. Gomez

16 · J. Pacheco

24 · L. Sucic

8 · B. Turrientes

23 · A. Zakharyan

28 · A. Lebarbier

11 · G. Guedes

12 · J. Ochieng

29 · A. Marchal

27 · G. Carrera

Our number · real sociedad winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Real Sociedad a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malaga v Real Sociedad~~1.19 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~20 v 6

~~The market · Real Sociedad win~~43% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Sociedad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malaga win	33%	30%	+3
Draw	27%	27%	0
Real Sociedad win	39%	43%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	57%	−12
Both teams to score	50%	60%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	36%	−12
Malaga or draw	61%	57%	+4
Malaga clean sheet	27%	–	–
Real Sociedad clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.7 10.6 7.1 3.2 1 9.5 12.8 8.1 3.6 2 5.8 7.4 4.8 2.1 3 2.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malaga down, Real Sociedad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,983 La Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malaga at home: 0.75 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Real Sociedad away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Malaga, 1.31 for Real Sociedad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAL 0–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug

MALAGA

LDDLLD0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

REAL SOCIEDAD

WDWLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Betis	9	+2	19
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
9	Athletic Club	7	+1	9
10	Villarreal	9	0	9
11	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
12	Espanyol	9	−1	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Getafe	8	−6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	−10	8
16	Osasuna	8	−10	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	8	−9	4