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Malaga v Espanyol

Malaga

1–1Full time

Espanyol

La Liga · FRI 9 OCT · La Rosaleda

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Malaga 1–1 Espanyol MALAGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Malaga win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.789

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.741

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Malaga win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Malaga was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Malaga v Espanyol
12′Espanyol ahead on 13′ through Bryan Zaragoza. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–63
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Malaga 0–1 Espanyol
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Malaga win: 38% at kick-off, 15% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Espanyol win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Malaga win 15%)
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Malaga 0–1 Espanyol · Bryan Zaragoza
13′We said Malaga at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–63
15′We said Malaga at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa · Espanyol
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Bryan Zaragoza · Espanyol
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Carlos Puga · Malaga
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
41′We said Malaga at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Carlos Ruiz Rubio · Malaga
45′SECOND HALF Malaga 0–1 Espanyol
46′HALF-TIME Malaga 0–1 Espanyol
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Espanyol · On: Urko Gonzalez · Off: Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa Corrected
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Omar El Hilali · Espanyol
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Malaga · On: Adam Aznou · Off: Carlos Puga Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Malaga · On: Carlos Dotor · Off: Joaquín Muñoz Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Malaga · On: Adrian Nino · Off: Rafael Rodríguez Ruiz Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Carlos Dotor · Malaga
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Espanyol · On: Álex Calatrava Torrado · Off: Bryan Zaragoza Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Malaga · On: Izan Merino · Off: Fernando Calero Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Espanyol · On: Roger Hinojo · Off: Roberto Fernández Jaén Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Espanyol · On: Pere Milla · Off: Eduardo Expósito Jaén Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Espanyol · On: Marcos Fernández · Off: Tyrhys Dolan Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Malaga · On: Haitam Abaida · Off: Pablo Martínez Andrés Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Clemens Riedel · Espanyol
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Roger Hinojo · Espanyol
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Adam Aznou · Malaga
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Malaga 1–1 Espanyol · Bryan Zaragoza
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Malaga 1–1 Espanyol · Adrian Nino
FTFULL TIME Malaga 1–1 Espanyol
FTMalaga 1–1 Espanyol · Malaga win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Malaga win38%

Draw28%

Espanyol win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 20:00

Venue · La Rosaleda

Referee · Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Malaga

4-1-4-1

1 A. Herrero

3 C. Puga

20 F. Calero

15 A. Recio

31 Rafita

14 R. Rodriguez

10 D. Larrubia

22 D. Lorenzo

18 P. Martinez

11 J. Munoz

9 Chupe

Coach · Juan Funes

Substitutes

13 · C. Lopez

30 · A. Cespedes

4 · E. Galilea

5 · A. Pastor

39 · A. Aznou

25 · J. Berrocal

23 · I. Merino

8 · C. Dotor

6 · R. Enriquez

7 · H. Abaida

17 · E. Jauregi

21 · A. Nino

Espanyol

4-2-3-1

1 A. Fortuno

23 O. El Hilali

5 C. Riedel

6 L. Cabrera

3 Q. Hartman

10 P. Lozano

8 Exposito

24 T. Dolan

28 J. Hernandez

15 B. Zaragoza

9 R. Fernandez

Coach · Manolo Gonzalez

Substitutes

13 · M. Dmitrovic

31 · L. Serred

14 · U. Nunez

16 · V. Drkusic

21 · R. Hinojo

4 · U. Gonzalez

22 · A. Calatrava

20 · Gabriel Moscardo

26 · R. Bauza

11 · P. Milla

18 · M. Fernandez Sanchez

7 · J. Puado

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Malaga

4-1-4-1

1 A. Herrero

3 C. Puga

20 F. Calero

15 A. Recio

31 Rafita

14 R. Rodriguez

10 D. Larrubia

22 D. Lorenzo

18 P. Martinez

11 J. Munoz

9 Chupe

Coach · Juan Funes

Substitutes

13 · C. Lopez

30 · A. Cespedes

4 · E. Galilea

5 · A. Pastor

39 · A. Aznou

25 · J. Berrocal

23 · I. Merino

8 · C. Dotor

6 · R. Enriquez

7 · H. Abaida

17 · E. Jauregi

21 · A. Nino

Espanyol

4-2-3-1

1 A. Fortuno

23 O. El Hilali

5 C. Riedel

6 L. Cabrera

3 Q. Hartman

10 P. Lozano

8 Exposito

24 T. Dolan

28 J. Hernandez

15 B. Zaragoza

9 R. Fernandez

Coach · Manolo Gonzalez

Substitutes

13 · M. Dmitrovic

31 · L. Serred

14 · U. Nunez

16 · V. Drkusic

21 · R. Hinojo

4 · U. Gonzalez

22 · A. Calatrava

20 · Gabriel Moscardo

26 · R. Bauza

11 · P. Milla

18 · M. Fernandez Sanchez

7 · J. Puado

Our number · malaga winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Malaga a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · malaga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malaga win	38%	33%	+5
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Espanyol win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Malaga or draw	66%	63%	+3
Malaga clean sheet	31%	–	–
Espanyol clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.2 10.2 6.1 2.4 1 11.0 12.8 7.4 2.9 2 7.0 8.0 4.6 3 3.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malaga down, Espanyol across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,969 La Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Malaga at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Espanyol away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Malaga, 1.17 for Espanyol. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in La Liga

MALAGA

DLDDLL1–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

ESPANYOL

LLDWLL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	−4	10
9	Villarreal	7	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	−3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
13	Osasuna	7	−7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	−10	7
17	Levante	6	−4	5
18	Elche	7	−6	5
19	Valencia	7	−9	4
20	Malaga	7	−9	3