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Levante v Sevilla

Levante

3–3Full time

Sevilla

La Liga · MON 12 OCT · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Levante 3–3 Sevilla LEVANTE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levante win~~44%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.737

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Levante win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Levante 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–31
2′Little has changed for our model: Levante 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
4′Little has changed for our model: Levante 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
12′We said Levante at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–23–57
13′13′ and it is 0–1: Robbie Ure on the scoresheet for Sevilla. 0–1 · 20–23–57
16′We said Levante at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
17′13′ and it is 0–1: Robbie Ure on the scoresheet for Sevilla. 0–1 · 19–23–58
18′We said Levante at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Sevilla win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Levante win 19%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Levante win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Levante win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Sevilla win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Levante win 19%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Levante win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Sevilla win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Levante win 19%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Levante win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Sevilla win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Levante win 19%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Levante win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Sevilla win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Levante win 19%)
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla · Levante
45′SECOND HALF Levante 0–1 Sevilla
46′HALF-TIME Levante 0–1 Sevilla
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Felix Correia · Sevilla
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Levante 0–2 Sevilla · Robbie Ure
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Levante 0–2 Sevilla · Felix Correia
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Levante · On: Petar Ratkov · Off: Yanis Musuayi
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Levante 1–2 Sevilla · Felix Correia
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Levante · On: Thiago Cruz Fernandez · Off: Víctor García
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Levante 1–2 Sevilla · Iván Romero
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Andrés Castrín · Sevilla
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Luis García Plaza · Sevilla
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sevilla · On: Alfonso González Martínez · Off: Miguel Sierra
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sevilla · On: Isaac Romero · Off: Robbie Ure
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Levante · On: Daniel Requena Sánchez · Off: Oriol Rey
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sevilla · On: Julio Diaz · Off: Felix Correia
80′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Daniel Requena Sánchez · Levante
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Alfonso González Martínez · Sevilla
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sevilla · On: Jon Guridi · Off: Giorgi Kochorashvili
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Levante · On: Nacho Pérez Gómez · Off: Jeremy Toljan
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Levante · On: Paco Cortés · Off: Jon Ander Olasagasti
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Isaac Romero · Sevilla
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Levante 2–2 Sevilla · Iván Romero
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Levante 2–2 Sevilla · Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Levante 2–3 Sevilla · Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Levante 2–3 Sevilla · Isaac Romero
95′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Sevilla
97′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez · Sevilla
97′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Isaac Romero · Sevilla
99′⚽ GOAL · 99' Levante 3–3 Sevilla · Isaac Romero
100′⚽ GOAL · 100' Levante 3–3 Sevilla · Ifeanyi Ndukwe
103′🟥 RED CARD · 103' Levante
FTFULL TIME Levante 3–3 Sevilla
FTLevante 3–3 Sevilla · Levante win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Levante win44%

Draw25%

Sevilla win31%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia

RefereeAdrian Cordero Vega

Line-ups

Levante

4-4-2

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Levante

Sevilla

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
18	Levante	6	−4	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Levante

4-4-2

13 M. Ryan

22 J. Toljan

4 Dela

3 I. Ndukwe

23 M. Sanchez

17 V. Garcia

20 O. Rey

8 J. A. Olasagasti

7 R. Brugue

9 I. Romero

11 Y. Musuayi

Coach · Luis Castro

Substitutes

1 · P. Cunat

36 · I. Galdin

2 · A. Mandi

14 · J. Cabello

29 · N. Perez

27 · P. Cortes

18 · E. Bardeli

6 · D. Requena

24 · T. Fernandez

16 · A. Tape

10 · P. Ratkov

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

1 O. Vlachodimos

2 J. Iglesias

5 Castrin

4 K. Salas

17 G. Suazo

8 G. Kochorashvili

6 L. Agoume

30 M. Sierra

24 Y. Fofana

20 F. Correia

9 R. Ure

Coach · Luis Garcia Plaza

Substitutes

13 · Fran

15 · F. Cardoso

12 · A. Sangante

22 · J. A. Carmona

3 · J. Diaz

11 · R. Vargas

14 · M. Bueno

18 · J. Guridi

21 · C. Ejuke

7 · A. Gonzalez

10 · Peque

16 · I. Romero

Our number · levante winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

44% The market35%

Us44%

~~Market~~35%

We make Levante a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · levante win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levante win	44%	35%	+10
Draw	25%	30%	−5
Sevilla win	31%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	44%	+11
Both teams to score	57%	51%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	78%	69%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	33%	24%	+9
Levante or draw	69%	65%	+4
Levante clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sevilla clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 7.1 4.6 2.0 1 8.8 11.6 7.3 3.2 2 7.1 9.0 5.8 2.5 3 3.8 4.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levante down, Sevilla across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,977 La Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levante at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sevilla away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Levante, 1.29 for Sevilla. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LEV 2–0 SEV · SEV 0–3 LEV · LEV 2–3 SEV · SEV 5–3 LEV

Form · last six in La Liga

LEVANTE

LDWDLL0–3 · 0–0 · 5–2 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–3

SEVILLA

WLDWWL3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	+5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	+1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Villarreal	8	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Getafe	8	−6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	−10	8
16	Osasuna	8	−10	8
17	Elche	8	−6	6
18	Levante	6	−4	5
19	Valencia	8	−9	5
20	Malaga	8	−9	4