Levante v Atletico Madrid prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LevanteDrawAtletico Madrid

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Madrid 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Madrid are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levante 27%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 49%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Levante v Atletico MadridBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Levante win27%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid win49%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levante

Atletico Madrid

10Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 24 Oct · La Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Atletico Madrid	10	+12	25
13	Levante	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico madrid winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market59%

Us49%

~~Market~~59%

We make Atletico Madrid a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levante v Atletico Madrid~~1.28 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 25~~13 v 2

~~The market · Atletico Madrid win~~59% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Madrid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levante win	27%	19%	+8
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Atletico Madrid win	49%	59%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
Levante or draw	51%	41%	+10
Levante clean sheet	17%	–	–
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.0 8.1 7.4 4.4 2.0 1 5.8 10.8 9.3 5.6 2.5 2 3.9 6.7 5.9 3.6 3 2.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levante down, Atletico Madrid across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 La Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levante at home: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Madrid away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Levante, 1.79 for Atletico Madrid. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LEV 0–0 ATL · ATL 3–1 LEV · LEV 0–2 ATL · ATL 0–1 LEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept

LEVANTE

DLLDDW0–0 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–1

ATLETICO MADRID

WWWWWW3–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	+12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Villarreal	10	+1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	0	11
11	Osasuna	9	−8	11
12	Racing Santander	10	−11	11
13	Levante	9	−2	10
14	Elche	10	−3	10
15	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
16	Getafe	9	−6	9
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
18	Espanyol	10	−2	8
19	Valencia	10	−10	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5