Levante v Athletic Club prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30

Levante 3–1 Athletic Club ATHLETIC CLUB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Athletic Club win~~37%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Athletic Club win at 37%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Athletic Club 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
2′KICK-OFF Levante v Athletic Club
19′We said Athletic Club at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Levante 1–0 Athletic Club
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Athletic Club win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Levante win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Athletic Club win 36%)
20′Levante score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
20′Athletic Club have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
21′We said Athletic Club at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Levante 2–0 Athletic Club
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Athletic Club win: 37% at kick-off, 4% now
23′Levante ahead on 22′ through Roger Brugué. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
29′Athletic Club have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
44′12 shots for Athletic Club, 6 the other way, and they still trail 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Iñaki Williams · Off: Mikel Jauregizar
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Peio Canales · Off: Johaneko Louis-Jean
45′SECOND HALF Levante 2–0 Athletic Club
47′HALF-TIME Levante 2–0 Athletic Club
54′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 93–5–1
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 78–19–4
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Levante 2–1 Athletic Club
67′Alex Berenguer scores for Athletic Club on 67′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–4
69′16 shots for Athletic Club, 7 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Levante · On: Víctor García · Off: Roger Brugué
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Levante · On: Karl Etta Eyong · Off: Petar Ratkov
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Levante · On: Oriol Rey · Off: Iván Romero
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Athletic Club
74′Athletic Club are down to ten from 73′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 83–15–2
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Karl Etta Eyong · Levante
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jeremy Toljan · Levante
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Athletic Club · On: Nico Williams · Off: Robert Navarro Muñoz
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Athletic Club · On: Alejandro Rego Mora · Off: Hugo Rincón Lumbreras
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Athletic Club · On: Aitor Paredes · Off: Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Levante · On: Nacho Pérez Gómez · Off: Jeremy Toljan
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Levante · On: Paco Cortés · Off: Thiago Cruz Fernandez
92′20 shots for Athletic Club, 10 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
97′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Levante 3–1 Athletic Club
99′90′: Karl Etta Eyong on the scoresheet for Levante, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
99′3–1 at the end. Our 37% on Athletic Club misses, and the record keeps it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Levante 3–1 Athletic Club
FTLevante 3–1 Athletic Club · Athletic Club win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Athletic Club just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Levante 37%, draw 26%, Athletic Club 37%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Levante v Athletic ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Levante win37%

Draw26%

Athletic Club win37%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia

RefereeAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Line-ups

Levante

4-4-2

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levante

Athletic Club

5Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · La Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Athletic Club	7	+1	9
17	Levante	8	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Levante

4-4-2

13 M. Ryan

22 J. Toljan

2 A. Mandi

3 Ifeanyi Ndukwe

23 Manu Sánchez

7 Brugui

8 Jon Ander Olasagasti

6 Reque

24 T. Fernández

10 P. Ratkov

9 Iván Romero

Coach · Luís Castro

Substitutes

14 · Jorge Cabello

20 · Oriol Rey

27 · Paco Cortés

1 · Pablo Cuñat

17 · Víctor García

11 · Yanis Musuayi

33 · M. Santos

16 · A. Tape

29 · Nacho Pérez

21 · Etta Eyong

32 · Primo

5 · Hugo Sotelo

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

1 Unai Simón

15 Hugo Rincón

5 Yeray

14 Aymeric Laporte

17 Yuri

16 Ruíz de Galarreta

18 Mikel Jauregizar

7 Álex Berenguer

23 Robert Navarro

31 J. Louis-Jean

21 Maroan Sannadi

Coach · E. Terzić

Substitutes

13 · Álex Padilla

6 · Beñat Prados

20 · Alejandro Rego

24 · Beñat Gerenabarrena

22 · Nico Serrano

9 · I. Williams

10 · Nico Williams

12 · Jesús Areso

4 · Aitor Paredes

3 · Dani Vivian

28 · Peio Canales

33 · Christian Imga

Our number · athletic club winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

37% The market45%

Us37%

~~Market~~45%

We make Athletic Club a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levante v Athletic Club~~1.33 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~17 v 11

~~The market · Athletic Club win~~45% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Athletic Club win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levante win	37%	26%	+11
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Athletic Club win	37%	45%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	50%	48%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	28%	0
Levante or draw	63%	55%	+8
Levante clean sheet	26%	–	–
Athletic Club clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.3 9.0 6.2 2.8 1 8.9 12.5 8.2 3.7 2 6.1 8.1 5.4 2.4 3 2.7 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levante down, Athletic Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,988 La Liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levante at home: 2.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Athletic Club away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Levante, 1.35 for Athletic Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Sept 20:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATH 4–2 LEV · LEV 0–2 ATH · ATH 3–1 LEV · LEV 0–0 ATH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 27 Aug

LEVANTE

WDLLDD5–2 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1

ATHLETIC CLUB

LWWDDD0–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	9	+3	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Athletic Club	7	+1	9
12	Villarreal	9	0	9
13	Rayo Vallecano	8	−5	9
14	Getafe	9	−6	9
15	Espanyol	9	−1	8
16	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	9	−12	4