Getafe v Rayo Vallecano prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano GETAFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Getafe win~~39%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Getafe win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Getafe 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–33–29
1′KICK-OFF Getafe v Rayo Vallecano
2′🟨 YELLOW · 1' Kiko Femenia · Getafe
10′We said Getafe at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–63
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Getafe 0–1 Rayo Vallecano
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Getafe win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Rayo Vallecano win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Getafe win 37%)
11′Rayo Vallecano ahead on 11′ through Álvaro García. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–63
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Dakonam Ortega Djené · Getafe
29′Getafe are down to ten from 28′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 10–24–66
29′🟥 RED CARD · 29' Getafe
31′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–67
32′We said Getafe at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Getafe win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Getafe · On: Abdel Abqar · Off: Ramón Terrats
45′SECOND HALF Getafe 0–1 Rayo Vallecano
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Ivan Balliu · Rayo Vallecano
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Getafe win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Rayo Vallecano win 71%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Getafe · On: Francho Serrano Gracia · Off: Kiko Femenia
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Getafe · On: Andrés García · Off: Mario Martín Rielves
47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 47' Getafe
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Getafe win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Rayo Vallecano win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 49%)
48′HALF-TIME Getafe 0–1 Rayo Vallecano
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Francho Serrano Gracia · Getafe
56′We said Getafe at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–56–20
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Getafe win: 39% at kick-off, 25% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Rayo Vallecano win 75%)
57′We said Getafe at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–19
58′Martin Satriano scores for Getafe on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–57–19
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rayo Vallecano · On: Óscar Valentín · Off: Isi Palazón
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rayo Vallecano · On: Pedro Díaz · Off: Ivan Balliu
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Rayo Vallecano · On: Georgiy Tsitaishvili · Off: Jorge De Frutos
67′We said Getafe at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–15
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Getafe win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Pathé Ciss · Rayo Vallecano
78′Rayo Vallecano have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 12–79–9
78′Rayo Vallecano have had 17 attempts to 11 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 12–79–9
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Daniel Carvajal · Getafe
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Getafe win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Getafe · On: Juan Sebastian Boselli Graf · Off: Daniel Carvajal
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rayo Vallecano · On: Alexandre Zurawski · Off: Álvaro García
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rayo Vallecano · On: Francisco Pérez Martínez · Off: Unai López
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Enes Ünal · Getafe
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Getafe · On: Borja Mayoral · Off: Enes Ünal
88′We said Getafe at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Nemanja Gudelj · Getafe
89′20 shots for Rayo Vallecano, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 4–93–3
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Sergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano
FTFULL TIME Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano
FTGetafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano · Getafe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Getafe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Getafe 39%, draw 32%, Rayo Vallecano 29%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Getafe v Rayo VallecanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Getafe win39%

Draw32%

Rayo Vallecano win29%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueColiseum Alfonso Pérez

RefereeJon Ander Gonzalez Esteban

Line-ups

Getafe

4-4-2

Rayo Vallecano

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Getafe

Rayo Vallecano

4Days since last match30

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 19 Sept · La Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
15	Getafe	8	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Getafe

4-4-2

13 David Soria

14 Daniel Carvajal

2 D. Dakonam

26 J. Valou

22 J. Mojica

17 Kiko Femenía

8 N. Gudelj

6 Mario Martín

10 M. Satriano

11 Ramón Terrats

19 E. Ünal

Coach · Pepe Bordalás

Substitutes

21 · Andrés García

16 · Francho Serrano

4 · S. Sazonov

28 · Alberto Risco

9 · Borja Mayoral

1 · J. Letáček

35 · Diego Ferrer

3 · Davinchi

5 · A. Abqar

15 · S. Boselli

Rayo Vallecano

4-2-3-1

25 E. Audero

20 I. Balliu

24 F. Lejeune

15 Mujaid Sadick

17 Adrià Pedrosa

8 Unai López

6 P. Ciss

7 Isi Palazón

10 Sergio Camello

18 Álvaro García

19 Jorge de Frutos

Coach · Beñat San José

Substitutes

1 · Dani Cárdenas

33 · J. Vertrouwd

23 · Óscar Valentín

14 · G. Tsitaishvili

21 · Fran Pérez

3 · M. Kumbulla

22 · Pelayo Fernández

4 · Pedro Díaz

36 · G. Bouare

37 · Rayane Belid

9 · Alemão

34 · Iván Alonso Martín

Our number · getafe winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make Getafe a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Getafe v Rayo Vallecano~~1.04 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~15 v 14

~~The market · Getafe win~~31% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Getafe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Getafe win	39%	31%	+8
Draw	32%	32%	0
Rayo Vallecano win	29%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Both teams to score	37%	43%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	12%	17%	−5
Getafe or draw	71%	64%	+7
Getafe clean sheet	43%	–	–
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%

0123450 15.6 12.6 5.4 1 15.5 13.5 5.6 2 8.2 6.9 2.9 3 2.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Getafe down, Rayo Vallecano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,987 La Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.3% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Getafe at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rayo Vallecano away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Getafe, 0.85 for Rayo Vallecano. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GET 0–2 RAY · RAY 1–1 GET · RAY 1–0 GET · GET 0–0 RAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 20 Aug

GETAFE

LDDLWL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

RAYO VALLECANO

DLWLWD1–1 · 2–5 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	9	+3	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Athletic Club	7	+1	9
12	Villarreal	9	0	9
13	Espanyol	9	−1	8
14	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
15	Getafe	8	−6	8
16	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	9	−12	4