Espanyol v Atletico Madrid prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Espanyol 0–1 Atletico Madrid ATLETICO MADRID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Madrid win~~48%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Madrid win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Madrid was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
1′KICK-OFF Espanyol v Atletico Madrid
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Morten Hjulmand · Atletico Madrid
35′7 shots for Atletico Madrid, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–34–41
38′Atletico Madrid have had 10 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 25–35–40
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Atletico Madrid win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Lee Kang-In · Atletico Madrid
45′HALF-TIME Espanyol 0–0 Atletico Madrid
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Madrid · On: Julián Álvarez · Off: Ademola Lookman
45′SECOND HALF Espanyol 0–0 Atletico Madrid
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Madrid · On: Alejandro Grimaldo · Off: Daniel Martinez Moreno
49′We said Atletico Madrid at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 23–41–36
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Atletico Madrid win 36%)
54′We said Atletico Madrid at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–45–34
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Atletico Madrid · On: Marcos Llorente · Off: Pablo Barrios Rivas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atletico Madrid · On: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez · Off: Lee Kang-In
64′We said Atletico Madrid at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Espanyol · On: Unai Núñez · Off: Vanja Drkusic
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Atletico Madrid win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Cristian Romero · Atletico Madrid
68′Atletico Madrid have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 17–57–26
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atletico Madrid · On: Rodrigo Mendoza · Off: Cristian Romero
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Alejandro Baena Rodríguez · Atletico Madrid
70′We said Atletico Madrid at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–59–24
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Espanyol · On: Gabriel Moscardo · Off: Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Espanyol · On: Álex Calatrava Torrado · Off: Eduardo Expósito Jaén
76′We said Atletico Madrid at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Atletico Madrid win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
78′Atletico Madrid have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 11–72–17
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Rodrigo Mendoza · Atletico Madrid
81′We said Atletico Madrid at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 9–77–13
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Roger Hinojo · Espanyol
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Espanyol · On: Javi Puado · Off: Bryan Zaragoza
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Espanyol · On: Marcos Fernández · Off: Roberto Fernández Jaén
84′We said Atletico Madrid at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Atletico Madrid win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Unai Núñez · Espanyol
90′We published Atletico Madrid at 48%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–1 · 0–3–96
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Espanyol 0–1 Atletico Madrid
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Atletico Madrid win: 48% at kick-off, 96% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Atletico Madrid win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 3%)
91′89′: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez on the scoresheet for Atletico Madrid, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Atletico Madrid win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
94′Full time, 0–1. We called Atletico Madrid at 48% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Espanyol 0–1 Atletico Madrid
FTEspanyol 0–1 Atletico Madrid · Atletico Madrid win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Madrid are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Espanyol 27%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 48%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Espanyol v Atletico MadridBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Espanyol win27%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueRCDE Stadium

RefereeAlejandro Hernandez

Line-ups

Espanyol

5-4-1

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Espanyol

Atletico Madrid

8Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
12	Espanyol	8	0	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Report: Atletico Madrid have already reached decision on Juventus loanee DavidFootball Italia · 16 Oct 19:44 · Atletico Madrid, Juventus Yoro sent off as Man Utd stumble to defeat against Atletico MadridBBC Sport · 14 Oct 22:00 · Manchester United, Atletico Madrid

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Espanyol

5-4-1

1 A. Fortuno

23 O. El Hilali

16 V. Drkusic

5 C. Riedel

6 L. Cabrera

21 R. Hinojo

28 J. Hernandez

8 Exposito

10 P. Lozano

15 B. Zaragoza

9 R. Fernandez

Coach · Manolo Gonzalez

Substitutes

13 · M. Dmitrovic

2 · A. Gorosabel

14 · U. Nunez

3 · Q. Hartman

4 · U. Gonzalez

22 · A. Calatrava

20 · Gabriel Moscardo

26 · R. Bauza

11 · P. Milla

24 · T. Dolan

18 · M. Fernandez Sanchez

7 · J. Puado

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

13 J. Oblak

18 M. Pubill

21 C. Romero

17 D. Hancko

30 D. Martinez

20 G. Simeone

8 P. Barrios

23 M. Hjulmand

11 A. Lookman

15 J. David

7 Lee Kang-In

Coach · Diego Simeone

Substitutes

1 · J. Musso

14 · M. Llorente

22 · A. Grimaldo

24 · R. Le Normand

27 · J. Dominguez

3 · O. Vargas

4 · R. Mendoza

46 · J. Castillo

9 · A. Sorloth

10 · A. Baena

19 · J. Alvarez

16 · A. Ortiz

Our number · atletico madrid winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market56%

Us48%

~~Market~~56%

We make Atletico Madrid a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Espanyol v Atletico Madrid~~1.13 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 19~~12 v 2

~~The market · Atletico Madrid win~~56% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Madrid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Espanyol win	27%	20%	+7
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Atletico Madrid win	48%	56%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Espanyol or draw	52%	44%	+8
Espanyol clean sheet	20%	–	–
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 10.2 8.3 4.5 1 7.2 11.8 9.3 5.0 2.0 2 4.2 6.6 5.3 2.8 3 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Espanyol down, Atletico Madrid across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,979 La Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Espanyol at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Madrid away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Espanyol, 1.61 for Atletico Madrid. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ATL 4–2 ESP · ESP 2–1 ATL · ESP 1–1 ATL · ATL 0–0 ESP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 29 Aug

ESPANYOL

LDWLLD1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1

ATLETICO MADRID

WLWWWW3–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	+5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
9	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Villarreal	8	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Getafe	8	−6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	−10	8
16	Osasuna	8	−10	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	8	−6	6
19	Valencia	8	−9	5
20	Malaga	8	−9	4