Elche v Celta Vigo prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Elche 0–0 Celta Vigo ELCHE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elche win~~38%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.748

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elche win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Elche was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
1′KICK-OFF Elche v Celta Vigo
2′Much as we predicted: Elche was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Yoel Lago · Celta Vigo
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Elche win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Elche 0–0 Celta Vigo
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Elche win 31%)
45′SECOND HALF Elche 0–0 Celta Vigo
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Javier Rueda García · Celta Vigo
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Celta Vigo · On: Borja Iglesias · Off: Pablo Durán Fernández Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Elche · On: Abiel Alessio Osorio · Off: Tete Morente Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Celta Vigo · On: Williot Swedberg · Off: Ferran Jutglà Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Celta Vigo · On: Couhaib Driouech · Off: Hugo Alvarez Antunez Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Celta Vigo · On: Sergio Carreira Vilarino · Off: Javi Galán Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Elche · On: Martim Neto · Off: Gonzalo Villar Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Elche · On: Lucas Cepeda · Off: Fernando Niño Rodríguez Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Aleix Febas · Celta Vigo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Celta Vigo · On: Hugo Burcio · Off: Aleix Febas Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Elche · On: Facundo Buonanotte · Off: Thomas Lemar Corrected
FTFULL TIME Elche 0–0 Celta Vigo
FTElche 0–0 Celta Vigo · Elche win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Elche win38%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero

RefereeJavier Alberola Rojas

Line-ups

Elche

5-3-2

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Elche

Celta Vigo

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Celta Vigo	7	+2	7
18	Elche	7	−6	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Elche

5-3-2

1 M. Dituro

22 R. Sanchez

47 J. Morcillo

23 V. Chust

3 R. Revivo

11 G. Valera

12 G. Villar

8 M. Aguado

18 T. Lemar

20 Tete Morente

14 F. Nino

Coach · Martin Anselmi

Substitutes

13 · A. Iturbe

15 · K. Lomonaco

26 · M. Barzic

6 · P. Bigas

19 · G. Diangana

16 · M. Neto

10 · F. Buonanotte

9 · E. Ponce

17 · Josan

24 · A. Osorio

21 · L. Cepeda

30 · A. Padilla

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

13 I. Radu

15 A. Nunez

18 Y. Lago

3 M. Alonso

17 J. Rueda

6 I. Moriba

14 A. Febas

22 J. Galan

9 F. Jutgla

11 P. Duran

23 H. Alvarez

Coach · Claudio Giraldez

Substitutes

25 · I. Villar

1 · A. Bayindir

21 · S. Caceres

5 · S. Carreira

20 · J. Rodriguez

4 · A. Faye

30 · H. Burcio

16 · H. Gonzalez

19 · W. Swedberg

10 · I. Aspas

7 · B. Iglesias

24 · C. Driouech

Our number · elche winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Elche a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · elche win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elche win	38%	32%	+6
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Celta Vigo win	37%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	48%	+5
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	28%	+3
Elche or draw	63%	62%	+2
Elche clean sheet	25%	–	–
Celta Vigo clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.3 8.3 5.8 2.7 1 8.5 11.9 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.7 2.7 3 2.9 4.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elche down, Celta Vigo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,973 La Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elche at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Celta Vigo away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Elche, 1.38 for Celta Vigo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CEL 3–1 ELC · ELC 2–1 CEL · CEL 1–0 ELC · ELC 0–1 CEL

Form · last six in La Liga

ELCHE

LLLDLW0–5 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1

CELTA VIGO

LLDDDW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
4	Real Betis	7	+2	16
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
6	Alaves	8	+4	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	−4	10
9	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
10	Villarreal	8	0	8
11	Espanyol	8	0	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
13	Getafe	8	−6	8
14	Osasuna	7	−7	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	+2	7
16	Racing Santander	7	−10	7
17	Levante	6	−4	5
18	Elche	7	−6	5
19	Malaga	8	−9	4
20	Valencia	7	−9	4