Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › La Liga › Deportivo La Coruna v Levante

Back
Spain flag

Deportivo La Coruna v Levante

Deportivo La Coruna
1–1Full time
Levante

La Liga · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio de Riazor

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30
Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Levante DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Deportivo La Coruna win48%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.893
The market’s Brier score0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo La Coruna win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo La Coruna 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo La Coruna v Levante
  4. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Iván Romero · Levante
  5. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Luismi Cruz · Deportivo La Coruna
  6. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Deportivo La Coruna win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 Levante
  8. 46′HALF-TIME Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 Levante
  9. 51′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–39–24
  10. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Deportivo La Coruna win 35%)
  11. 55′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–24
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–42–24
  13. 62′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–18–4
  14. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 Levante
  15. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Deportivo La Coruna win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
  16. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Deportivo La Coruna win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
  17. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Adria Altimira · Off: Ximo Navarro
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Adama Traoré · Off: Luismi Cruz
  19. 63′Bil Nsongo scores for Deportivo La Coruna on 63′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
  20. 65′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  21. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Levante · On: Petar Ratkov · Off: Oriol Rey
  22. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Levante · On: Jon Ander Olasagasti · Off: Enzo Bardeli
  23. 75′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  24. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Levante · On: Jeremy Toljan · Off: Nacho Pérez Gómez
  25. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Deportivo La Coruna win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
  26. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Jonathan Asp Jensen · Off: Yeremay Hernández
  27. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Angeliño · Off: Riki Rodríguez
  28. 81′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  29. 82′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–78–9
  30. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Levante
  31. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Deportivo La Coruna win: 48% at kick-off, 13% now
  32. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Deportivo La Coruna win 13%)
  33. 83′82′: Daniel Requena Sánchez on the scoresheet for Levante, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 12–80–8
  34. 85′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
  35. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Deportivo La Coruna · On: Miguel Loureiro · Off: Bright Ede
  36. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Deportivo La Coruna win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  37. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla · Levante
  38. 92′We said Deportivo La Coruna at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–3
  39. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Levante · On: Víctor García · Off: Thiago Cruz Fernandez
  40. 97′1–1 at the end. Our 48% on Deportivo La Coruna misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  41. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Adria Altimira · Deportivo La Coruna
  42. FTFULL TIME Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Levante
  43. FTDeportivo La Coruna 1–1 Levante · Deportivo La Coruna win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo La Coruna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo La Coruna 48%, draw 24%, Levante 29%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo La Coruna v LevanteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo La Coruna win48%
Draw24%
Levante win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstadio de Riazor

RefereeManuel Jesus Orellana Cid

Line-ups

Deportivo La Coruna

4-4-2

Levante

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo La Coruna

Levante

5Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 12 Oct · La Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Deportivo La Coruna8+110
17Levante7−46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo La Coruna

4-4-2

13 L. Roman

23 X. Navarro

20 J. Gimenez

22 B. Ede

12 G. Quagliata

19 Lusimi Cruz

21 M. Soriano

8 D. Villares Yanez

14 R. Rodriguez

10 Y. Hernandez

32 B. Nsongo

Coach · Antonio Hidalgo

Substitutes

25 · A. Fernandez

15 · M. Loureiro

2 · A. Altimira

17 · Angelino

4 · L. Noubi

36 · Y. Gonzalez

37 · N. Carrillo

18 · J. Asp

24 · A. Traore

11 · D. Mella

31 · M. Ochoa

33 · K. Sanchez

Levante

4-3-3

13 M. Ryan

29 N. Perez

4 Dela

3 I. Ndukwe

23 M. Sanchez

18 E. Bardeli

20 O. Rey

6 D. Requena

7 R. Brugue

9 I. Romero

24 T. Fernandez

Coach · Luis Castro

Substitutes

1 · P. Cunat

36 · I. Galdin

2 · A. Mandi

22 · J. Toljan

14 · J. Cabello

27 · P. Cortes

8 · J. A. Olasagasti

16 · A. Tape

17 · V. Garcia

11 · Y. Musuayi

10 · P. Ratkov

Our number · deportivo la coruna winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:29 · locked at kick-off
48% The market46%
Us48%
Market46%

We make Deportivo La Coruna a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo La Coruna v Levante1.75 – 1.30
Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 24 AugW2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 10 v 68 v 17
The market · Deportivo La Coruna win46% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 10 OCT 03:5316 OCT 19:34
Our probability · Deportivo La Coruna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. The market has gone from 45% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo La Coruna win48%46%+2
Draw24%27%−3
Levante win29%27%+2
Over 2.5 goals58%51%+7
Both teams to score59%56%+3
Over 1.5 goals80%74%+6
Over 3.5 goals36%32%+4
Deportivo La Coruna or draw71%73%−2
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet28%––
Levante clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.2 6.1 4.1 1 8.3 10.8 6.9 3.0 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.2 5.3 3.4 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo La Coruna down, Levante across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsDEP 1–2 LEV · LEV 2–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 24 Aug

DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA

WWDLDL3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

LEVANTE

DWDLLD0–0 · 5–2 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Barcelona8+2724
2Atletico Madrid8+1019
3Real Betis8+519
4Real Madrid8+1118
5Sevilla8+114
6Real Sociedad8−313
7Alaves8+411
8Deportivo La Coruna8+110
9Celta Vigo8+28
10Athletic Club6+18
11Villarreal808
12Espanyol808
13Rayo Vallecano7−58
14Getafe8−68
15Racing Santander8−108
16Osasuna8−108
17Levante7−46
18Elche8−66
19Valencia8−95
20Malaga8−94

The competition's standings before kick-off.