Celta Vigo v Real Betis prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Celta VigoDrawReal Betis

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Celta Vigo 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celta Vigo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celta Vigo 41%, draw 26%, Real Betis 33%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Celta Vigo v Real BetisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Celta Vigo win41%

Draw26%

Real Betis win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMunicipal de Balaídos

RefereeIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celta Vigo

Real Betis

3Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
9	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11

In the news

from the pressAll ›

How to watch Celtic vs Celta Vigo – TV channel, live stream and kick-off timeMirror Football · 22 Oct 17:00 · Celtic, Celta Vigo

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celta vigo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make Celta Vigo a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celta Vigo v Real Betis~~1.47 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 19~~9 v 4

~~The market · Celta Vigo win~~31% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Celta Vigo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celta Vigo win	41%	31%	+10
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Real Betis win	33%	41%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Celta Vigo or draw	67%	59%	+8
Celta Vigo clean sheet	28%	–	–
Real Betis clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.8 7.9 5.2 2.2 1 9.2 12.2 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.7 5.6 2.4 3 3.4 4.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celta Vigo down, Real Betis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 La Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celta Vigo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Betis away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Celta Vigo, 1.28 for Real Betis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–1 CEL · CEL 1–1 REA · CEL 3–2 REA · REA 2–2 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 3 Sept

CELTA VIGO

DDDWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

REAL BETIS

WWWDWL1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	+12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Villarreal	10	+1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	0	11
11	Osasuna	9	−8	11
12	Racing Santander	10	−11	11
13	Levante	9	−2	10
14	Elche	10	−3	10
15	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
16	Getafe	9	−6	9
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
18	Espanyol	10	−2	8
19	Valencia	10	−10	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5