Celta Vigo v Alaves prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Celta Vigo 2–1 Alaves CELTA VIGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celta Vigo win~~49%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.384

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celta Vigo win at 49%.
2′Much as we predicted: Celta Vigo was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
2′KICK-OFF Celta Vigo v Alaves
17′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Sebastián Cáceres · Celta Vigo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Celta Vigo win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Celta Vigo 0–0 Alaves
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Toni Martínez · Alaves
45′SECOND HALF Celta Vigo 0–0 Alaves
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celta Vigo · On: Aleix Febas · Off: Ilaix Moriba
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celta Vigo · On: Javier Rueda García · Off: Williot Swedberg
47′We said Celta Vigo at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–42–21
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Celta Vigo win 37%)
52′We published Celta Vigo at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Celta Vigo 1–0 Alaves
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Celta Vigo win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Celta Vigo win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Celta Vigo win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
55′Celta Vigo ahead on 53′ through Ferran Jutglà. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Alaves · On: Hugo Novoa Ramos · Off: Jonny Otto
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Alaves · On: Mariano Díaz · Off: Toni Martínez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Alaves · On: Denis Suárez · Off: Carles Aleñá
64′9 shots for Alaves, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
68′We published Celta Vigo at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′We published Celta Vigo at 49%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
70′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 98–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Celta Vigo 2–0 Alaves
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Celta Vigo win: 49% at kick-off, 98% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Celta Vigo · On: Iago Aspas · Off: Couhaib Driouech
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Celta Vigo · On: Andrés Antañón Vieites · Off: Hugo Burcio
71′Javier Rodríguez Galiano scores for Celta Vigo on 71′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Celta Vigo win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Celta Vigo · On: Marcos Alonso · Off: Sebastián Cáceres
80′We published Celta Vigo at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′13 shots for Alaves, 5 the other way, and they still trail 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′Alaves have had 16 attempts to 6 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
87′87′: Hugo Novoa Ramos on the scoresheet for Alaves, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Celta Vigo 2–1 Alaves
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Alaves · On: Aitor Mañas · Off: Abderrahmane Rebbach
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Alaves · On: Ander Guevara · Off: Antonio Blanco
89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–3–0
95′Full time, 2–1. We called Celta Vigo at 49% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Celta Vigo 2–1 Alaves
FTCelta Vigo 2–1 Alaves · Celta Vigo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celta Vigo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celta Vigo 49%, draw 26%, Alaves 24%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Celta Vigo v AlavesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Celta Vigo win49%

Draw26%

Alaves win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 9

VenueMunicipal de Balaídos

RefereeJose Luis Munuera Montero

Line-ups

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

Alaves

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celta Vigo

Alaves

3Days since last match8

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 10 Oct · La Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
11	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Tottenham loanee Sarr shines as Juventus beat Celta Vigo 2-1Football Italia · 16 Oct 15:12 · Tottenham, Juventus, Celta Vigo UEL | Celta Vigo 1-2 Juventus: Kolo Muani completes special comebackFootball Italia · 15 Oct 21:58 · Celta Vigo, Juventus

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

13 I. Radu

20 J. Rodriguez

18 Y. Lago

21 S. Caceres

5 S. Carreira

30 H. Burcio

6 I. Moriba

23 H. Alvarez

24 C. Driouech

9 F. Jutgla

19 W. Swedberg

Coach · Claudio Giraldez

Substitutes

25 · I. Villar

1 · A. Bayindir

3 · M. Alonso

22 · J. Galan

17 · J. Rueda

15 · A. Nunez

4 · A. Faye

28 · A. Antanon

14 · A. Febas

16 · H. Gonzalez

31 · A. Arcos

10 · I. Aspas

Alaves

5-3-2

1 A. Sivera

14 N. Tenaglia

17 Jonny Otto

16 V. Koski

2 N. Valentini

21 A. Rebbach

19 P. Ibanez

8 A. Blanco

10 C. Alena

11 T. Martinez

15 L. Boye

Coach · Quique Sanchez Flores

Substitutes

13 · A. Rodriguez

31 · G. Swiderski

3 · Yusi

12 · H. Novoa Ramos

4 · D. Suarez

23 · C. Protesoni

6 · A. Guevara

24 · M. Diallo Selu

20 · A. Manas

9 · M. Diaz

22 · M. Rodriguez

27 · X. Olaiz

Our number · celta vigo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 12:36 · locked at kick-off

49% The market41%

Us49%

~~Market~~41%

We make Celta Vigo a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celta Vigo v Alaves~~1.52 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~11 v 7

~~The market · Celta Vigo win~~41% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Celta Vigo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. The market has gone from 47% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celta Vigo win	49%	41%	+8
Draw	26%	31%	−5
Alaves win	24%	28%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	39%	+7
Both teams to score	49%	46%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	64%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	20%	+4
Celta Vigo or draw	76%	72%	+4
Celta Vigo clean sheet	38%	–	–
Alaves clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.6 7.8 4.0 1 12.2 12.4 5.9 2 9.4 9.2 4.5 3 4.8 4.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celta Vigo down, Alaves across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,983 La Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celta Vigo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alaves away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Celta Vigo, 0.98 for Alaves. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 14:49. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CEL 3–4 ALA · ALA 0–1 CEL · ALA 1–1 CEL · CEL 2–1 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 28 Aug

CELTA VIGO

LDDDWD0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 0–0

ALAVES

WWLLDL1–0 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Betis	9	+2	19
4	Real Madrid	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	−3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
9	Athletic Club	7	+1	9
10	Villarreal	9	0	9
11	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
12	Espanyol	9	−1	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Getafe	8	−6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	−10	8
16	Osasuna	8	−10	8
17	Levante	8	−4	7
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	8	−9	4