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Barcelona v Getafe

Barcelona

3–0Full time

Getafe

La Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Spotify Camp Nou

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Barcelona 3–0 Getafe BARCELONA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barcelona win~~75%

~~The market said~~87%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.093

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.025

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barcelona win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Barcelona was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–16–8
2′2′ and it is 1–0: Anthony Gordon on the scoresheet for Barcelona. 1–0 · 92–6–2
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Barcelona 1–0 Getafe
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 76% now
5′We published Barcelona at 75%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
8′We published Barcelona at 75%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Barcelona 2–0 Getafe · Anthony Gordon
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Barcelona 2–0 Getafe · Gabriel Jesus
31′Barcelona ahead on 30′ through Gabriel Jesus. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 90% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 90% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 90% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Kiko Femenia · Getafe
35′We published Barcelona at 75%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
35′Barcelona ahead on 30′ through Gabriel Jesus. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 90% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
37′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Getafe · On: Abdel Abqar · Off: Zaid Romero Corrected
39′We published Barcelona at 75%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Barcelona 2–0 Getafe
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Johan Mojica · Getafe
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Daniel Olmo Carvajal · Barcelona
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Barcelona win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Barcelona · On: Fermín López · Off: Pablo Martín Páez Gavira Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Barcelona · On: Pedri · Off: Daniel Olmo Carvajal Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Getafe · On: Martin Satriano · Off: Iván Azón Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Getafe · On: David Cordón Mancha · Off: Johan Mojica Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Getafe · On: Juan Sebastian Boselli Graf · Off: Andrés García Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Juan Sebastian Boselli Graf · Getafe
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Barcelona · On: Marc Bernal · Off: Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barcelona · On: Karim Adeyemi · Off: Anthony Gordon Corrected
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Barcelona 3–0 Getafe · Gabriel Jesus
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Barcelona 3–0 Getafe · Jules Koundé
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Ramón Terrats · Getafe
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barcelona · On: Hamza Abdelkarim · Off: Gabriel Jesus Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Getafe · On: Saba Sazonov · Off: Kiko Femenia Corrected
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Fermín López · Barcelona
FTFULL TIME Barcelona 3–0 Getafe
FTBarcelona 3–0 Getafe · Barcelona win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Barcelona win75%

Draw16%

Getafe win8%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bayern Munich set their sights on FC Barcelona defender Jules KoundéGet French Football News · 3 hours ago · Bayern München, Barcelona, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City Raphinha's brilliant Barcelona start interrupted by injury concernsBBC Sport · 8 hours ago · Barcelona

Mourinho’s tactical fix for Mbappé and Vinícius faces Clásico testFootball España · 9 hours ago · Real Madrid, Barcelona

Álvarez turns focus to Atlético after Fernando Hidalgo splitFootball España · 1 day ago · Barcelona, Real Madrid

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Spotify Camp Nou

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3

1 J. Garcia

23 J. Kounde

24 E. Garcia

18 G. Martin

12 X. Espart

20 D. Olmo

16 Rodri

6 Gavi

10 Lamine Yamal

9 Gabriel Jesus

17 A. Gordon

Coach · Hansi Flick

Substitutes

13 · W. Szczesny

25 · D. Livakovic

2 · J. Cancelo

3 · A. Balde

5 · P. Cubarsi

8 · Pedri

22 · M. Bernal

4 · B. Farinas

7 · Fermin

29 · H. Abdelkarim

14 · K. Adeyemi

Getafe

5-4-1

13 D. Soria

17 Kiko Femenia

2 Djene

8 N. Gudelj

24 Z. Romero

22 J. Mojica

21 A. Garcia

16 Francho

6 M. Martin

11 R. Terrats

20 I. Azon

Coach · Jose Bordalas Jimenez

Substitutes

1 · J. Letacek

35 · D. Ferrer

5 · A. Abqar

3 · Davinchi

26 · J. Valou

4 · S. Sazonov

15 · S. Boselli

34 · J. Martinez

28 · A. R. Alcantara

9 · B. Mayoral

10 · M. Satriano

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3

1 J. Garcia

23 J. Kounde

24 E. Garcia

18 G. Martin

12 X. Espart

20 D. Olmo

16 Rodri

6 Gavi

10 Lamine Yamal

9 Gabriel Jesus

17 A. Gordon

Coach · Hansi Flick

Substitutes

13 · W. Szczesny

25 · D. Livakovic

2 · J. Cancelo

3 · A. Balde

5 · P. Cubarsi

8 · Pedri

22 · M. Bernal

4 · B. Farinas

7 · Fermin

29 · H. Abdelkarim

14 · K. Adeyemi

Getafe

5-4-1

13 D. Soria

17 Kiko Femenia

2 Djene

8 N. Gudelj

24 Z. Romero

22 J. Mojica

21 A. Garcia

16 Francho

6 M. Martin

11 R. Terrats

20 I. Azon

Coach · Jose Bordalas Jimenez

Substitutes

1 · J. Letacek

35 · D. Ferrer

5 · A. Abqar

3 · Davinchi

26 · J. Valou

4 · S. Sazonov

15 · S. Boselli

34 · J. Martinez

28 · A. R. Alcantara

9 · B. Mayoral

10 · M. Satriano

Our number · barcelona winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

75% The market87%

Us75%

~~Market~~87%

We make Barcelona a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · barcelona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 89% to 87% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barcelona win	75%	87%	−12
Draw	16%	9%	+7
Getafe win	8%	4%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	74%	−16
Both teams to score	43%	43%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	89%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	36%	55%	−19
Barcelona or draw	92%	96%	−4
Barcelona clean sheet	52%	–	–
Getafe clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.6%

0123450 5.1 3.1 1 11.5 7.6 2.5 2 13.6 8.8 2.9 3 10.7 6.9 2.3 4 6.4 4.1 5 3.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Barcelona down, Getafe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,970 La Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barcelona at home: 3.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Getafe away: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Barcelona, 0.65 for Getafe. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GET 0–2 BAR · BAR 3–0 GET · GET 1–1 BAR · BAR 1–0 GET

Form · last six in La Liga

BARCELONA

WWWWWW2–0 · 5–2 · 5–0 · 4–2 · 7–2 · 3–1

GETAFE

WLDDLW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	−4	10
9	Villarreal	7	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Espanyol	8	0	8
12	Getafe	7	−3	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Osasuna	7	−7	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	+2	7
16	Racing Santander	7	−10	7
17	Levante	6	−4	5
18	Elche	7	−6	5
19	Malaga	8	−9	4
20	Valencia	7	−9	4