Barcelona v Alaves prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BarcelonaDrawAlaves

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Barcelona 79%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barcelona are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barcelona 79%, draw 13%, Alaves 8%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Barcelona v AlavesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Barcelona win79%

Draw13%

Alaves win8%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCamp Nou

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barcelona

Alaves

11Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 23 Oct · La Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

How to watch Barcelona vs Real Madrid: TV channel and live stream for El Clasico todayEvening Standard · 25 Oct 08:00 · Barcelona, Real Madrid

How Mourinho's Real Madrid can ruin Barcelona's record chaseBBC Sport · 25 Oct 07:55 · Real Madrid, Barcelona

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barcelona winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

79% The market84%

Us79%

~~Market~~84%

We make Barcelona a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barcelona v Alaves~~2.87 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 27 v 12~~1 v 7

~~The market · Barcelona win~~84% · ours 79%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barcelona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barcelona win	79%	84%	−5
Draw	13%	11%	+2
Alaves win	8%	5%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	51%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Barcelona or draw	92%	95%	−3
Barcelona clean sheet	45%	–	–
Alaves clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.4%

0123450 2.8 1 7.3 6.1 2.4 2 10.4 8.3 3.3 3 9.9 7.8 3.1 4 7.1 5.6 2.2 5 4.2 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Barcelona down, Alaves across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 La Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barcelona at home: 3.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Alaves away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.87 goals for Barcelona, 0.80 for Alaves. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALA 1–0 BAR · BAR 3–1 ALA · BAR 1–0 ALA · ALA 0–3 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept

BARCELONA

WWWWWW5–0 · 4–2 · 7–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 5–2

ALAVES

LLDLLD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	+12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Villarreal	10	+1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	0	11
11	Osasuna	9	−8	11
12	Racing Santander	10	−11	11
13	Levante	9	−2	10
14	Elche	10	−3	10
15	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
16	Getafe	9	−6	9
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
18	Espanyol	10	−2	8
19	Valencia	10	−10	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5