Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna prediction · La Liga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Madrid are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Madrid 66%, draw 20%, Deportivo La Coruna 14%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La CorunaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Madrid win66%

Draw20%

Deportivo La Coruna win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueRiyadh Air Metropolitano

RefereeJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid

4-2-3-1

Deportivo La Coruna

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Madrid

Deportivo La Coruna

4Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 16 Oct · La Liga

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid

4-2-3-1

13 J. Oblak

14 Marcos Llorente

18 Marc Pubill

17 D. Hancko

22 Álex Grimaldo

8 Pablo Barrios

23 M. Hjulmand

7 Lee Kang-In

10 Álex Baena

11 A. Lookman

19 J. Álvarez

Coach · D. Simeone

Substitutes

4 · Rodrigo Mendoza

30 · Dani Martínez

1 · J. Musso

16 · Arnau Ortiz

20 · G. Simeone

9 · A. Sørloth

3 · O. Vargas

24 · Robin Le Normand

25 · Salvador Esquivel

27 · J. Dominguez

15 · J. David

46 · J. Castillo

Deportivo La Coruna

4-2-3-1

13 Leo Román

2 Adrià Alti

20 J. Giménez

15 Miguel Loureiro

12 G. Quagliata

8 Diego Villares

16 L. Amatucci

11 David Mella

21 Mario Soriano

10 Peke

32 B. Nsongo

Coach · Antonio Hidalgo

Substitutes

3 · Arnau Comas

19 · Luismi Cruz

17 · Angeliño

25 · Álvaro Fernández

18 · Jonathan Asp Jensen

35 · ruben lopez

23 · Ximo Navarro

4 · L. Noubi

14 · Riki Rodríguez

33 · Kevin Sánchez

24 · Adama Traoré

5 · Dani Barcia

Our number · atletico madrid winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

66% The market75%

Us66%

~~Market~~75%

We make Atletico Madrid a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna~~2.17 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 11~~2 v 9

~~The market · Atletico Madrid win~~75% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Madrid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Madrid win	66%	75%	−9
Draw	20%	16%	+4
Deportivo La Coruna win	14%	9%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	60%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	47%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Atletico Madrid or draw	86%	91%	−5
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	43%	–	–
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 4.2 1 10.3 9.3 3.9 2 11.1 9.4 4.1 3 8.0 6.7 2.9 4 4.5 3.7 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Madrid down, Deportivo La Coruna across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,990 La Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Madrid at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo La Coruna away: 1.75 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Atletico Madrid, 0.86 for Deportivo La Coruna. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEP 0–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 5 Sept

ATLETICO MADRID

LWWWWW0–3 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA

WDLDLD3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Levante	9	−2	10
12	Elche	10	−3	10
13	Villarreal	9	0	9
14	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
15	Getafe	9	−6	9
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
17	Espanyol	9	−1	8
18	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5