Athletic Club v Getafe prediction · La Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Athletic ClubDrawGetafe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Athletic Club 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Athletic Club are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Athletic Club 49%, draw 30%, Getafe 21%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Athletic Club v GetafeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Athletic Club win49%

Draw30%

Getafe win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSan Mamés Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Athletic Club

Getafe

4Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
15	Getafe	9	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · athletic club winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market61%

Us49%

~~Market~~61%

We make Athletic Club a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Athletic Club v Getafe~~1.24 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~14 v 15

~~The market · Athletic Club win~~61% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Athletic Club win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Athletic Club win	49%	61%	−12
Draw	30%	24%	+6
Getafe win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	31%	41%	−10
Both teams to score	36%	41%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	58%	67%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	14%	22%	−8
Athletic Club or draw	79%	85%	−6
Athletic Club clean sheet	49%	–	–
Getafe clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.3%

0123450 14.7 9.8 3.6 1 17.3 12.7 4.4 2 10.9 7.7 2.7 3 4.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Athletic Club down, Getafe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,990 La Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Athletic Club at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Getafe away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Athletic Club, 0.71 for Getafe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GET 2–0 ATH · ATH 0–1 GET · GET 0–2 ATH · ATH 1–1 GET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 30 Aug

ATHLETIC CLUB

WWDDDL2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3

GETAFE

DDLWLD1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	10	+3	12
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Levante	9	−2	10
12	Elche	10	−3	10
13	Villarreal	9	0	9
14	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
15	Getafe	9	−6	9
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	−8	9
17	Espanyol	9	−1	8
18	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	10	−12	5